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Global Climatic Models and Their Potential for Seasonal Climatic Forecasting

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Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems

Part of the book series: Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library ((ATSL,volume 21))

Abstract

Currently there are major initiatives in a number of research institutions to develop operational long-lead climatic prediction schemes. These schemes are all based on the intrinsic predictability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events occurring in the low latitude Pacific Ocean. The physical processes that provide this long-lead predictability are identified and briefly discussed here. These processes have now been incorporated into a range of climatic models, extending from highly parameterised two-level models to extremely complicated coupled atmospheric-oceanic global climatic models. The manner in which the various models are used for predictions is discussed, and some results from an extensive series of hindcasts are presented to illustrate present levels of predictability, particularly for rainfall. The paper concludes with a list of major problems that need to be resolved in order to enhance predictability, especially the critical requirement to extend oceanic feedbacks beyond the low latitude Pacific Ocean.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, PMB1, Aspendale, Vic, 3195, Australia

    Barrie Hunt & A. C. Hirst

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  1. Barrie Hunt
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  2. A. C. Hirst
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

    G. L. Hammer

  2. Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, PO Box 1289K, 3001, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    N. Nicholls

  3. CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    C. Mitchell

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Hunt, B., Hirst, A.C. (2000). Global Climatic Models and Their Potential for Seasonal Climatic Forecasting. In: Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., Mitchell, C. (eds) Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems. Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library, vol 21. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_7

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-90-481-5443-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-015-9351-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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