Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xiv

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2. Introduction

   1. The Importance of Climate Variability and Seasonal Forecasting to the Australian Economy

      • Barry White

      Pages 1-22

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   2. The Relevance of Seasonal Climate Forecasting to a Rural Producer

      • Sid Plant

      Pages 23-28

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   3. Understanding and Predicting the World’s Climate System

      • Mark Cane

      Pages 29-50

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   4. A General Systems Approach to Applying Seasonal Climate Forecasts

      • Graeme Hammer

      Pages 51-65

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3. Seasonal Climate Forecasting

   1. The Development and Delivery of Current Seasonal Climate Forecasting Capabilities in Australia

      • Roger C. Stone, Graham C. de Hoedt

      Pages 67-75

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   2. The Potential for Improved Statistical Seasonal Climate Forecasts

      • Wasyl Drosdowsky, Rob Allan

      Pages 77-87

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   3. Global Climatic Models and Their Potential for Seasonal Climatic Forecasting

      • Barrie Hunt, A. C. Hirst

      Pages 89-107

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   4. Operational Experience with Climate Model Predictions

      • Neville Nicholls, Carsten Frederiksen, Richard Kleeman

      Pages 109-119

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   5. Stochastic Down-Scaling of General Circulation Model Simulations

      • Bryson Bates, Stephen Charles, James Hughes

      Pages 121-134

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   6. Statistical Methods for Deriving Seasonal Climate Forecasts from GCM’S

      • Roger Stone, Ian Smith, Peter Mcintosh

      Pages 135-147

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4. Farm Scale Agricultural Decisions

   1. Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Manage Dryland Crops in Northern Australia — Experiences from the 1997/98 Seasons

      • Holger Meinke, Zvi Hochman

      Pages 149-165

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   2. The Potential Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Managing Cropping Systems

      • Peter Carberry, Graeme Hammer, Holger Meinke, Michael Bange

      Pages 167-181

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   3. Comparing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Systems in Managing Cropping Systems

      • Graeme Hammer, Peter Carberry, Roger Stone

      Pages 183-195

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   4. Managing Climatic Variability in Queensland’s Grazing Lands — New Approaches

      • Peter Johnston, Greg Mckeon, Rosemary Buxton, David Cobon, Ken Day, Wayne Hall et al.

      Pages 197-226

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   5. Simulation of Grazing Strategies for Beef Production in North-East Queensland

      • Greg McKeon, Andrew Ash, Wayne Hall, Mark Stafford Smith

      Pages 227-252

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   6. Managing Climate Variability in Grazing Enterprises: A Case Study of Dalrymple Shire, North-Eastern Australia

      • Andrew Ash, Peter O’Reagain, Greg Mckeon, Mark Stafford Smith

      Pages 253-270

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   7. Seasonal Climate Forecasting and the Management of Rangelands: Do Production Benefits Translate into Enterprise Profits?

      • Mark Stafford Smith, Rosemary Buxton, Greg McKeon, Andrew Ash

      Pages 271-289

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   8. Building Knowledge and Skills to Use Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Property Management Planning

      • Jeff Clewett, Neil Cliffe, Lynda Drosdowsky, David George, Damien O’Sullivan, Col Paull et al.

      Pages 291-307

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   9. Opportunities to Improve the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

      • Neville Nicholls

      Pages 309-327

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Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to:

1. farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems);
2. regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and
3. natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna).

Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.

• Climatology
• Ecology
• Fauna
• Scale
• Southern Oscillation
• development
• ecosystem
• ecosystems
• environment
• air pollution and air quality

`The book provides the first consolidated collection of R-D in this area, and while there is still a great deal to learn, the book represents a significant step towards achieving more widespread and prudent use of SCFs around the world. We therefore have no hesitation in recommending this book to those who work in the development, delivery, or application of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions and to meteorological service providers generally'
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82:10 (2001)

• Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Toowoomba, Australia

  G. L. Hammer

• Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia

  N. Nicholls

• CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, Australia

  C. Mitchell

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