The Relevance of Seasonal Climate Forecasting to a Rural Producer

Abstract

Weather and climate are the biggest single management considerations in primary production. Australian farms are still mostly family-operated, but demand a wide range of financial and other management skills Under continued pressure in terms of trade, Australian farmers have become efficient, innovative and receptive to new technology.

In response to the extreme variability of the climate in Queensland, scientists have made good progress in seasonal forecasting and its practical application to decision-making. Current systems provide probabilistic forecasts. Uptake and use of modern seasonal forecasting technology to minimise risks and maximise opportunities has generally been greatest where there is a strong relationship between the El Niño—Southem Oscillation (ENSO) and local rainfall.

The recent long drought in Queensland has put climate forecasting on the political agenda — an opportunity to be maximised but needing reasoned scientific explanations. Climate and agricultural applications information is available from a range of sources including radio, TV, aviation meteorology and the interne. Statistical forecast systems such as that based on Australian Rainman are sufficiently accurate to be of use in rural Australia, and should be developed until General Circulation Models (GCMs) become useful at a district level. Much current attention to El Niño has been dramatised by media sources. Thus, some farmers who are starting to appreciate practical use of seasonal forecasting, are confused by different sources of information, and could become discouraged.