Abstract
There is considerable interest in exploring the value of seasonal climate forecasts in assisting farmers to manage cropping systems, not only for short-term decisions on crop management but also for longer-term strategic decisions on crop rotations. This paper reviews a range of applications for climate forecasts, but focuses on cropping systems issues that would benefit from long lead-time forecasts. A specific case study is used to demonstrate the potential for using the Southern Oscillation Index in assisting the incorporation of opportunity cropping into dryland cotton production systems.
In the case study, the standard dryland cropping rotation of long fallowing from sorghum (through a subsequent summer fallow) to cotton is compared to alternative fixed rotations and to a rotation influenced by an SOI forecast. The decision point is the October after sorghum harvest where the manager can choose to proceed with the standard summer fallow or plant sorghum or cotton in that season with the intention in all cases of planting cotton in the following summer. These three fixed rotations (fallow-cotton, sorghum-cotton, cotton-cotton) are compared to an SOI-influenced strategy using a simulation analysis over the long-term climate record for Dalby, Qld.
The simulation case study demonstrated that SOI contributed some skill to improving management decisions over a two-year rotation. By changing between fallow-cotton, sorghum-cotton or cotton-cotton rotations based on the SOI phase in the August-September period preceding the next two summers, average gross margins for the two year period increased by 14% over a standard fallow-cotton rotation. At the same time, soil loss from erosion was reduced by 23% and cash flow was improved in many years because an extra crop was sown. The SOI-based strategy did however increase the risk of economic loss from 5% of years for the standard fallow-cotton rotation to 9%, but this risk was considerably less than the 15% for sorghum-cotton and 19% for cotton-cotton rotations.
In conclusion, there are many decisions in the management of dryland cropping systems that would greatly benefit from climate forecasts with persistence in skill out to two years in duration. The case study used in this paper demonstrated some skill in using the SOI in choosing a cropping rotation of two-year duration. Such applications are the obvious next frontier both for the development of enhanced forecasting schemes and for their application within the cropping systems of northern Australia and possibly elsewhere.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Barah, B.C., Binswanger, H.P., Rana, B.S. and Rao, N.G.P. (1981) The use of a risk aversion in plant breeding: Concepts and application. Euphytica 30, 451’458
Blacket, D. (1996) From teaching to learning: social systems research into mixed farming. Queensland Dept. Primary Ind., Publication Q096010. pp. 118.
Barah, B.C., Binswanger, H.P., Rana, B.S. and Rao, N.G.P. (1981) The use of a risk aversion in plant breeding: Concepts and application. Euphytica 30, 451–458.
Carberry, P.S., Adiku, S.G.K., McCown, R.L. and Keating, B.A. (1996b) Application of the APSIM cropping systems model to intercropping systems, in O. Ito, C. Johansen, J.J. Adu-Gyamfi, K. Katayama, J.V.D.K. Kumar Rao and T.J. Rego (eds.), Dynamics of Roots and Nitrogen in Cropping Systems of the Semi-Arid Tropics. Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, International Agricultural Series No. 3., pp. 637–648.
Carberry, P.S., McCown, R.L., Muchow, R.C., Dimes, J.P., Probert, M.E., Poulton, P.L. and Dalgliesh, N.P. (1996a) Simulation of a legume ley farming system in northern Australia using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator. Aust. J. Exp. Agric. 36, 1037–48
Carberry, P.S., Muchow, R.C. and McCown, R.L. (1993) A simulation model of kenaf for assisting fibre industry planning in northern Australia: 4. Analysis of climatic risk. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 44, 713–30.
Chapman, S.C., Imray, R.J. and Hammer, G.L. (2000) Can seasonal climate forecasts predict movements in grain prices? in G.L. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell (eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems — The Australian Experience. Kluwer Academic, The Netherlands. (this volume)
Foale, M.A. and Carberry, P.S. (1996) Sorghum in the farming system: Reviewing performance, and identifying opportunities by doing on-farm research, in M.A. Foale, R.G. Henze]] and J.F. Kneipp (eds). Proceedings Third Australian Sorghum Conference, Tamworth, 20 to 22 February 1996. Australian Institute of Agricultural Science, Melbourne, Occasional Publication No. 93. pp. 63–74.
Freebairn, D. M. Littleboy M. Smith G. D. and Coughlan K. J. (1991) Optimising soil surface management in response to climatic risk, in R.C. Muchow and J.A. Bellamy (eds.), Climatic Risk in Crop Production: Models and Management in the Semiarid Tropics and Subtropics. CAB International, Wallingford. pp. 283–305.
Hammer, G.L. (2000) A general systems approach to applying seasonal climate forecasts, in G.L. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell (eds), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems — The Australian Experience. Kluwer Academic, The Netherlands. (this volume)
Hammer, G.L. Carberry, P.S., and Stone, R. (2000) Comparing the value of seasonal climate forecasting systems in managing cropping systems, in G.L. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell (eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems — The Australian Experience. Kluwer Academic, The Netherlands. (this volume)
Hammer, G.L., Holzworth, D.P., and Stone, R. (1996) The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 47, 717–737.
Hammer, G.L., McKeon, G.M., Clewett, J.F. and Woodruff, D.R. (1991) Usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts in crop and pasture management. Proc. First Aust. Conf. Agric. Meteorol., Melbourne. Bureau of Meteorology. pp. 15–23.
Keating, B.A., McCown, R.L. and Cresswell, H.P. (1995) Paddock-scale models and catchment-scale problems: The role for APSIM in the Liverpool Plains. In: Binning, P., Bridgman, H. and Williams, B. (eds.), MODSIM - Proceedings, International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Nov 27–30, 1995, University of Newcastle.
Keating, B.A., Wafula, B.M., Watiki, J.M. and Karanja, D.R. (1994) Dealing with climatic risk in agricultural research–a case study with modelling in semi-arid Kenya, in E.T. Crasswell and J. Simpson (eds.), Soil Fertility and Climatic Constraints in Dryland Agriculture. Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, Proceedings No. 54. pp. 105–114.
McCown, R.L., Hammer, G.L., Hargreaves, J.N.G., Holzworth, D.P. and Freebaim, D.M. (1996) APSIM: A novel software system for model development, model testing, and simulation in agricultural research. Agric. Sys. 50, 255–271.
McCown, R.L., Wafula, B.M., Mohammed, L., Ryan, J.G. and Hargreaves, J.N.G. (1991) Assessing the value of a seasonal rainfall predictor to agronomic decisions: The case of response farming in Kenya, in: R.C. Muchow and J.A. Bellamy (eds.), Climatic Risk in Crop Production: Models and Management in the Semi-arid Tropics and Subtropics. CAB International, Wallingford. pp. 383–409
Meinke, H. and Hochman, Z. (2000) Using seasonal climate forecasts to manage dryland crops in northern Australia, in G.L. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell (eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems — The Australian Experience. Kluwer Academic, The Netherlands. (this volume)
Meinke, H. and Stone, R.C. (1997) On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modelling–a case study for wheat. Sci. Agric., Piracicaba 54, 121–129.
Meinke, H., Stone, R.C. and Hammer, G.L. (1996) Using SOI phases to forecast climatic risk to peanut production: a case study for northem Australia. Int. J. Climatol. 16, 783–789.
Muchow, R.C. and Carberry, P.S. (1993) Designing improved plant types for the semiarid tropics: agronomists’ viewpoints, in F.W.T. Penning de Vries et al. (eds.), Systems Approaches for Agricultural Development. Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands. pp. 37–61.
Parton, K.A. and Carberry, P.S. (1995) Stochastic efficiency and mean-standard deviation analysis: some critical issues. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 46, 1487–91.
Probert, M.E., Carberry, P.S., McCown, R.L. and Turpin., J.E. (1998) Simulation of legume-cereal systems using APSIM. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 49, 317–27.
Stone, R.C. and Auliciems, A. (1992) SOI phase relationships with rainfall in eastern Australia. Int. J. Climatol. 12, 625–636.
Stone, R.C. and de Hoedt, G. (2000) The development and delivery of current seasonal forecasting capabilities in Australia, in G.L. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell (eds), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems — The Australian Experience. Kluwer Academic, The Netherlands. (this volume)
Stone, R. C., Hammer G. L., and Marcussen, T. (1996) Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384, 252–55.
Turpin, J. E. Huth N. I. Keating B. A. and Thompson J. P. (1996) Computer simulation of the effects of cropping rotations and fallow management on solute movement. Proceedings 8th Australian Agronomy Conference, Toowoomba 1996. pp. 558–61.
Wylie, P.B. (1996) Farming systems — the need for economics and integration. Proceedings 8th Australian Agronomy Conference, Toowoomba 1996. pp.598–601.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2000 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Carberry, P., Hammer, G., Meinke, H., Bange, M. (2000). The Potential Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Managing Cropping Systems. In: Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., Mitchell, C. (eds) Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems. Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library, vol 21. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_12
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-5443-2
Online ISBN: 978-94-015-9351-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive