Abstract
A parallel pair of 15-year atmospheric model integrations are used to assess the impact of interannually varying ocean surface temperatures on the variability of various atmospheric states characterized by different degrees of spatial and temporal averaging. The two experiments have identical mean forcing but one allows anomalous forcing on a month-by-month basis. The basic hypothesis is that if enhanced variability of a particular atmospheric state results from the interannually varying forcing, then a potential predictability of those extreme atmospheric anomalies is said to exist by relating them to specific anomalous forcings. From a variety of objective statistical testing procedures, consistent judgments of potential predictability result for the tropics but not for the midlatitudes.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
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© 1988 Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Chervin, R.M. (1988). Predictability of Time-Averaged Atmospheric States. In: Schlesinger, M.E. (eds) Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. NATO ASI Series, vol 243. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_10
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