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Development of Climatic Scenarios: A. From General Circulation Models

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The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture

Abstract

This section evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of a number of general circulation models (GCMs) in deriving climatic scenarios for subsequent assessments of climate impact in the IIASA/UNEP project’s case studies in Saskatchewan, Iceland, Finland, the northern USSR and Japan. It begins by outlining the nature of the problem and the information needs of decision makers. There then follows some comparison of the model-based and analogue approaches to scenario development. The main body of this section is concerned with the choice of GCM experiment that is most appropriate for the impact assessments which follow. The chosen scenario is then described in some detail.

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Authors
  1. Wilfrid Bach
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, The University of Birmingham, UK

    Martin L. Parry  & Timothy R. Carter  & 

  2. IIASA, Vienna, Austria

    Martin L. Parry  & Timothy R. Carter  & 

  3. Department of Soil Science, Agricultural University, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Nicolaas T. Konijn

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© 1988 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and United Nations Environment Program

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Bach, W. (1988). Development of Climatic Scenarios: A. From General Circulation Models. In: Parry, M.L., Carter, T.R., Konijn, N.T. (eds) The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2943-2_3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2943-2_3

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-90-277-2701-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-009-2943-2

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