Abstract
In this chapter we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history (such as the Industrial Revolution) and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the theory of Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s and will be completed in the 2060s or 2070s.
Basing of the theory of production principles and production revolutions we have established a close correlation between Industrial and Scientific-Cybernetic production principles’ cycles and Kondratieff cycles. Given that each new K-wave does not just repeat the wave motion, but is based on a new technological system, K-waves in a certain aspect can be treated as phases of the development of the Industrial production principle and the first phases of development of the Scientific-Cybernetic production principle.
There is a special section that demonstrates specific features of the Fourth and Fifth K-waves and their phases. It explains on the basis of the theory of production revolutions why the Fourth wave was so powerful and why there is no comparably strong technological breakthrough during the Fifth K-wave. The theory of production revolution also can explain the contemporary phenomenon when periphery of the World System develops faster than its core.
We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable of combining a number of other technologies into a single system of new and innovative technologies. The chapter offers some forecasts concerning the development of these technologies. The drivers of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will be medical technologies, bio and nanotechnologies, robotics, IT, cognitive sciences, and additive manufacturing (3D printers), which will together form a sophisticated system of self-regulating production. Thus, we suppose that medical technologies will be a sphere of the initial technological breakthrough and the emergence of the technology complex. We assume that the Cybernetic Revolution will start first in a certain area. Given the general vector of scientific achievements and technological development and taking into account that a future breakthrough area should be highly commercially attractive and have a wide market, we forecast that the final phase of this revolution (the phase of self-regulating systems) will begin somewhere at the intersection of medical technologies and many other technologies connected with them.
Certainly, it is almost impossible to forecast the concrete course of innovations. However, the general vector of breakthrough can be defined as a rapid growth of opportunities for correction or even modification of the human biological nature. In other words, it will be possible to extend our opportunities to alter a human body, perhaps, to some extent, its genome; to use extensively means of cultivating separate biological materials, bodies or their parts and elements for regeneration and rehabilitation of an organism, and also artificial analogues of biological material (bodies, receptors), etc. This will make it possible to radically expand the opportunities to prolong the life and improve its biological quality.
This chapter has been prepared in cooperation with Anton Grinin. The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 15-18-30063).
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Notes
- 1.
For example, in the modernization phase of the Agrarian Revolution local varieties of plants and breeds of animals (borrowed from other places) were created.
- 2.
For a detailed application of Production Revolution Theory to the analysis of the Industrial Revolution see our previous monograph in the present Springer series (Grinin & Korotayev, 2015a: 17–84).
- 3.
- 4.
The reason for the shorter duration is the general acceleration of historical development.
- 5.
While compiling this table we have taken into account ideas and works cohering with the theories which explain the nature and pulsation of K-waves by changing of technological systems and/or techno-economic paradigms: (Ayres, 2006; Dator, 2006; Dickson, 1983; Dosi, 1984; Freeman, 1987; Freeman & Louçã, 2001; Hirooka, 2006; Kleinknecht, 1981, 1987; Maeвcкий, 1997; Mensch, 1979; Modelski & Thompson, 1996; Modelski, 2001, 2006; Tylecote, 1992; Глaзьeв, 1993; Якoвeц, 2001; Kleinknecht & van der Panne, 2006; Papenhausen, 2008; see also Лaзуpeнкo, 1992; Perez, 2002; Глaзьeв, 2009; Пoлтepoвич, 2009).
- 6.
Therefore, it appears reasonable that the A-phase of the sixth K-wave can also make great progress, as it will coincide with the beginning of the Cybernetic Revolution final phase. Thus, the sixth wave will have a stronger manifestation than the fifth one. We will return to this point below.
- 7.
- 8.
For example, the control of human insufficient attention in order to prevent dangerous situations (e.g., in transport) as well as to prevent human beings from using means of high-risk when they are in an unlawful or incompetent state (e.g., not allowing a person to drive a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol or drugs).
- 9.
During the Industrial Epoch these elements existed separately: technologies were preserved on paper or in the engineer’s minds. At present, thanks to informational and other technologies the technological constituent fulfils the managing function facilitating the path to the epoch of self-regulating systems.
- 10.
For example, resource and energy saving can be carried out via choosing optimal modes by the autonomous systems that fulfil specific goals and tasks and vice versa, the choice of an optimum mode will depend on the level of energy and materials consumption, and a consumer’s budget. Or, the opportunities of self-regulation will allow choosing a particular decision for the variety of individual tasks, orders and requests (e.g., with 3D printers and choosing of an individual program as the optimal one).
- 11.
The order of the letters in the acronym does not reflect our understanding of the relative importance of areas of the complex. For example, biotechnologies will be more important than nanotechnologies, let alone additive manufacturing. The order is determined simply by the convenience of pronunciation.
- 12.
Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno.
- 13.
It should be noted that Leo Nefiodow has been writing about health as the leading technology of the sixth Kondratieff wave for a long time (Nefiodow, 1996; Nefiodow & Nefiodow, 2014a, 2014b). He explains that health is much more than medicine and includes mental, psychosocial, environmental and spiritual aspects. He believes that medicine covers only a small part of the health problems we face today. We agree that health is more than medicine. However, we regard medicine as the most important business sphere connected with health care (note that the overwhelming majority of researchers in the health area work with medical technology). We also agree with Nefiodow that business and profit far from always serve people. But we do not know any power beside medical business which has opportunities (in co-operation with such state agencies as the National Institutes of Health in the USA) to finance research and development in this area, to elaborate new ways to fight mortal diseases, to invest in prolongation of life expectancy. In Nefiodow’s opinion, health area covers not only psychotherapeutic, psychological and psychiatric services, but also numerous measures of health improvement that, using his terms, will reduce social entropy. The problems with this argument, based on reducing social entropy (e.g., corruption, small and large crime, drug addiction, lack of moral guide, divorces, violence, etc.), is that social entropy (as Nefiodow himself points out) has always existed in society. Social changes can be really extremely important for the creation of starting conditions for a long-term upswing in reducing social entropy (see Grinin L. & Grinin A. 2014 for more detail). However, it is production and/or commercial technologies that represent the driving force of the K-Wave upswing phases. There is one more important point. The Nefiodows believe that it is biotechnologies that will become an integrating core of the new technological system. However, we suppose that the leading role of biotechnologies will be, first of all, in their possibility to solve the major medical problems. That is why it makes sense to speak about medical technologies as the core of a new technological paradigm. Besides, we forecast a more important role of nanotechnology than the Nefiodows do (Nefiodow & Nefiodow, 2014b: Chap. 2). Nanotechnologies will be of great importance in terms of the development of bio- and medical technologies (they are supposed to play a crucial role in the fight against cancer; at the same time nanotechnologies will play a crucial role in other spheres too, in particular in energy and resource saving).
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Grinin, L., Korotayev, A., Tausch, A. (2016). Kondratieff Waves and Technological Revolutions. In: Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery. International Perspectives on Social Policy, Administration, and Practice. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-41262-7_5
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