Explaining and Predicting Behavior

  • Stuart S. Nagel
Part of the Policy Studies Organization Series book series (PSOS)


The purpose of this chapter is mainly to discuss how one can determine the motives, goals, or values of past decision-makers from knowing what decisions they have reached and their likely perceptions of the relevant facts. One may also be able to deduce their perceptions from knowing their decisions and goals.


Atomic Bomb Judicial Review Weapon System Good Scenario Development Alternative 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes and References

  1. 1.
    For further details on deducing goals in Marbury v. Madison see Charles Warren, The Supreme Court in United States History (Boston, Mass.: Little Brown, 1935);Google Scholar
  2. Charles G. Haines, The Role of the Supreme Court in American Government and Politics 1789–1835 ( Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1944 );Google Scholar
  3. and Robert Carr, The Supreme Court and Judicial Review ( New York: Rinehart, 1942 ): 57–74.Google Scholar
  4. On deducing goals in judicial decisions in general, see Glendon Schubert, Quantitative Analysis of Judicial Behavior ( Riverside, N.J.: Free Press, 1942 ): 173–268.Google Scholar
  5. 2.
    For further details on the Roosevelt decision to proceed with the development of the atomic bomb, see H. Smyth, Atomic Energy for Military Purposes: The Official Report on the Development of the Atomic Bomb (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1947 );Google Scholar
  6. Arthur Compton, Atomic Quest ( New York: Oxford University Press, 1956 );Google Scholar
  7. and R. Clark, The Birth of the Bomb ( New York: Horizon, 1961 ).Google Scholar
  8. On decision-making under conditions of uncertainty including best—worst analysis, see Edward Quade, Analysis for Public Decisions ( Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1983 ): 33–42;Google Scholar
  9. and Samuel Richmond, Operations Research for Management Decisions ( New York: Ronald, 1967 ): 487–92.Google Scholar
  10. 3.
    On the determination of motives in history, see Jacques Barzun and Henry Graff, The Modern Researcher ( New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1957 ): 115–130.Google Scholar
  11. On determining motives in psychology, see Peter Lindsay and Donald Norman, Human Information Processing ( New York: Academic Press, 1972 ): 592–639;CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. and Gardner Lindzey (ed.), Handbook of Social Psychology: Theory and Method ( Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1954 ): 57–258.Google Scholar
  13. On determining motives in law, see Wayne LaFave and Austin Scott, Handbook on Criminal Law ( St Paul: West, 1972 ): 191–218.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Policy Studies Organisation 1991

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stuart S. Nagel
    • 1
  1. 1.University of IllinoisUSA

Personalised recommendations