Summary
The effects of immunity stimulated by natural colonization with Nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) were assessed using population models of transmission and data from the literature on NTHi colonization prevalence by age, NTHi acute otitis media (AOM) incidence by age, NTHi antibody levels, and colonization duration. The models allowed both contact patterns and immunity to influence colonization and disease patterns by age. To fit the data, the models required colonization to stimulate immunity affecting both transmission (susceptibility and contagiousness) and pathogenicity (AOM given colonization). Model analysis demonstrated that immunity affecting transmission influenced AOM incidence in the first year of life from 4.6 to 39.5 times as much as immunity reducing pathogenicity. This differential decreased with age until age three and then rose again. It was important, however, across all age groups. The conclusion that immunity affecting transmission had larger effects on AOM incidence than immunity affecting pathogenicity was robust to model form and to reasonable variation in the data. Because sensitivity to NTHi strain interactions and age patterns of infection by strain could not be assessed and because data on the distribution of NTHi strains across all ages are deficient, this conclusion must still be viewed as tentative. Nonetheless, these results make it imperative that trials of potential NTHi vaccines be designed to insure accurate assessment of effects on transmission. The models presented here provide the basis for the construction of discrete individual simulation models for use in designing the most informative and powerful vaccine trials.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Poolman, J.T., et al. (2000). Developing a nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) vaccine. Vaccine, 19, S108–S115.
Barbour, M.M.-W., R.T. Coles, C. Crook, and D.W.M. Moxon. (1995). The impact of conjugate vaccine on carriage of Haemophilus influenzae type b. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 171, 93–98.
Eskola, J., et al. (2001). Efficacy of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against acute otitis media. New England Journal of Medicine, 344, 403–409.
Heikkinen, T., M. Thint, and T. Chonmaitree (1999). Prevalence of various respiratory viruses in the middle ear during acute otitis media. New England Journal of Medicine, 340, 260–264.
Bluestone, C.D. (1982). Otitis media in children: to treat or not to treat? New England Journal of Medicine, 306, 1399–1404.
Teele, D.W., J.O. Klein, and B.A. Rosner (1980). Epidemiology of otitis media in children. Annals of Otology, Rhinology, & Laryngology-Supplement, 89, 5–6.
Del Beccaro, M.A., et al. (1992). Bacteriology of acute otitis media: a new perspective. Journal of Pediatrics, 120, 81–84.
Howard, A.J., K.T. Dunkin, and G.W. Millar (1988). Nasopharyngeal carriage and antibiotic resistance of Haemophilus influenzae in healthy children. Epidemiology & Infection, 100, 193–203.
St. Sauver, J.L., C. Marrs, B. Foxman, P. Somsel, R. Madera, and J.R. Gilsdorf. (2000). Relationship of otitis media risk factors to carriage of multiple strains of H. influenzae and S. pneumoniae. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 6, 622–630.
Faden, H., L. Duffy, A. Williams, D.A. Krystofik, and J. Wolf (1996). Epidemiology of nasopharyngeal colonization with nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae in the first two years of life. Acta Oto-Laryngologica-Supplement, 523, 128–129.
Gunnarsson, R.K., S.E. Holm, and M. Soderstrom (2000). The prevalence of potentially pathogenic bacteria in nasopharyngeal samples from individuals with a long-standing cough-clinical value of a nasopharyngeal sample. Family Practice, 17, 150–155.
Fontanals, D., et al. (2000). Prevalence of Haemophilius influenzae carriers in the Catalan preschool population. Working Group on Invasive Disease Caused by Haemophilus influenzae. European Journal of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases, 19, 301–304.
Principi, N., P. Marchisio, G.C. Schito, and S. Mannelli (1999). Risk factors for carriage of respiratory pathogens in the nasopharynx of healthy children. Ascanius Project Collaborative Group. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 18, 517–523.
Peerbooms, P.E., M.N. Stokman, D.A. van Benthem, B.H. van Weert, M.L. Bruisten, S.M. van Belkum, and R.A. Coutinho (2002). Nasopharyngeal carriage of potential bacterial pathogens related to day care attendance, with special reference to the molecular epidemiology of Haemophilus influenzae. Journal of Clinical Microbiology, 40, 2832–2836.
Lundgren, K. and L. Ingvarsson (1983). Epidemiology of acute otitis media in children. Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases-Supplementum, 39, 19–25.
Teele, D.W., J.O. Klein, and B. Rosner (1989). Epidemiology of otitis media during the first seven years of life in children in greater Boston: a prospective, cohort study. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 160, 83–94.
Alho, O.P., M. Koivu, M. Sorri, and P. Rantakallio (1991). The occurrence of acute otitis media in infants. A life-table analysis. International Journal of Pediatric Otorhinolaryngology, 21, 7–14.
U.S. Bureau of the Census (1998). Childcare Arrangements for Preschoolers by Family Characteristics: Fall 1995 Percentages. http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/child/ppl-138/tab01b.txt.
Jacquez, J.A., C.P. Simon, and J.S. Koopman (1989). Structured Mixing: Heterogeneous Mixing by the Definition of Activity Groups. Springer-Verlag Lecture Notes in Biomathematics.
Macey, R. and G. Oster (2003). Berkeley Madonna-Modeling and Analysis of Dynamic Systems. http://www.berkeleymadonna.com/.
Yamanaka, N. and H. Faden (1993). Antibody response to outer membrane protein of nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae in otitisprone children. Journal of Pediatrics, 122, 212–218.
Harabuchi, Y., et al. (1994). Nasopharyngeal colonization with nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae and recurrent otitis media. Tonawanda/Williamsville Pediatrics. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 170, 862–866.
Yamanaka, N. and H. Faden (1993). Local antibody response to P6 of nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae in otitis-prone and normal children. Acta Oto-Laryngologica, 113, 524–529.
Williams, R. and R. Gibbons (1972). Inhibition of bacterial adherence by secretory immunoglobulin A: a mechanism of antigen disposal. Science, 177, 697–699.
Rao, V.K., G.P. Krasan, D.R. Hendrixson, S. Dawid, and J.W. St. Geme, 3rd (1999). Molecular determinants of the pathogenesis of disease due to non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae. In FEMS Microbiology Reviews.
Koopman, J.S., I.M. Longini, J.A. Jacquez, C.P Simon, D. Ostrow, W.R. Martin, and D.M. Woodcock (1991). Assessing risk factors for transmission. American Journal of Epidemiology, 133, 1199–1209.
Koopman, J.S., S.E. Chick, C.P. Riolo, C.P. Simon, and G. Jacquez (2002). Stochastic effects of disseminating versus local infection transmission. Mathematical Biosciences, 180, 49–71.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Koopman, J.S., Lin, X., Chick, S.E., Gilsdorf, J.R. (2005). Transmission Model Analysis of Nontypeable Haemophilus Influenzae. In: Brandeau, M.L., Sainfort, F., Pierskalla, W.P. (eds) Operations Research and Health Care. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 70. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-8066-2_31
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-8066-2_31
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-7629-9
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-8066-1
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive