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Validation Approach for Statistical Extrapolation

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Contemporary Ideas on Ship Stability

Part of the book series: Fluid Mechanics and Its Applications ((FMIA,volume 119))

Abstract

Statistical extrapolation is the estimation of rare, extreme responses from data sets that consist primarily, if not entirely, of lower (non-rare) values. The validation of statistical extrapolation involves elements common to all validation efforts with the additional difficulty of needing to determine the true value and its uncertainty. The determination of the true value requires an extensive amount of data in order to observe multiple rare events. In some cases, the desired extreme events may be so rare that validation is forced to accept a less rare event such as a lower threshold value. This paper reviews the basics of simulation validation and focuses on the challenges of the validation of statistical extrapolation.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. David Taylor Model Basin (NSWCCD), West Bethesda, MD, USA

    Timothy C. Smith

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  1. Timothy C. Smith
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Correspondence to Timothy C. Smith .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. David Taylor Model Basin/Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division, West Bethesda, MD, USA

    Vadim L. Belenky

  2. School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Kostas J. Spyrou

  3. MARIN-Maritime Research Institute Netherlands, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Frans van Walree

  4. Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Marcelo Almeida Santos Neves

  5. Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka, Japan

    Naoya Umeda

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Smith, T.C. (2019). Validation Approach for Statistical Extrapolation. In: Belenky, V., Spyrou, K., van Walree, F., Almeida Santos Neves, M., Umeda, N. (eds) Contemporary Ideas on Ship Stability. Fluid Mechanics and Its Applications, vol 119. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00516-0_34

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00516-0_34

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-00514-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-00516-0

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