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Household and Living Arrangement Projections

The Extended Cohort-Component Method and Applications to the U.S. and China

  • Yi Zeng
  • Kenneth C. Land
  • Danan Gu
  • Zhenglian Wang

Part of the The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis book series (PSDE, volume 36)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xxix
  2. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
    Pages 1-15
  3. Methodology, Data, and Assessments

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 17-17
    2. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 19-48
    3. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 49-72
    4. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 73-90
    5. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 109-114
    6. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 115-132
  4. Applications in the United States

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 133-133
    2. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 135-150
    3. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 189-207
  5. Applications in China

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 209-209
    2. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 211-223
    3. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 225-236
    4. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 237-262
    5. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 263-279
  6. ProFamy: A Software for Household and Consumption Forecasting

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 281-281
    2. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 283-295
    3. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 297-321
    4. Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang
      Pages 323-332
  7. Back Matter
    Pages 333-357

About this book

Introduction

This book presents an innovative demographic toolkit known as the ProFamy extended cohort-component method for the projection of household structures and living arrangements with empirical applications to the United States, the largest developed country, and China, the largest developing country. The ProFamy method uses demographic rates as inputs to project detailed distributions of household types and sizes, living arrangements of all household members, and population by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and urban/rural residence at national, sub-national, or small area levels.  It can also project elderly care needs and costs, pension deficits, and household consumption. The ProFamy method presented herein has substantial merits compared to the traditional headship rate method, which is not linked to demographic rates and projects limited household types without other household members than "heads".

The book consists of four parts. The first part presents the methodology, data, estimation issues, and empirical assessments. The next parts present applications in the United States (part two) and China (part three), concerning demographic, social, economic, and business research; policy analysis, including forecasting future trends of household type/size, elderly living arrangements, disability, and home-based care costs, and household consumption including housing and vehicles. The fourth part includes a user’s guide for the ProFamy software to project households, living arrangements, and home-based consumptions.

This book offers an invaluable toolkit for researchers, analysts and students in academic, public and private businesses, whose work is related to levels and rates of change in households, population and consumption patterns.

Keywords

Applications in China Applications in the United States Chinese households and living arrangements Disability and home-based care needs Elderly family households, disability and care costs in China Elderly living arrangements Extended cohort-component method Fertility policy transition in China Head-ship Rates method Household consumption Household housing demand projections Household projection Household vehicle consumption projections Housing forecasts Living arrangement projection Long-term care forecasting ProFamy software Projections at the national and sub-national level Projections for small counties and cities

Authors and affiliations

  • Yi Zeng
    • 1
  • Kenneth C. Land
    • 2
  • Danan Gu
    • 3
  • Zhenglian Wang
    • 4
  1. 1.Centre for study of Aging & Human DevelopmentMedical School, Duke UniveristyDurhamUSA
  2. 2.Centre for Population Health and Aging, Population Research InstituteDuke University Dept. SociologyDurhamUSA
  3. 3.Population DivisionUnited NationsNew YorkUSA
  4. 4.Centre for Population Health and Aging, Population Research InstituteDuke UniversityDurhamUSA

Bibliographic information