Skip to main content
Log in

Econometric analysis of factors of internal migration in Russia

  • Population Geography
  • Published:
Regional Research of Russia Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The article analyzes internal migration in Russia and identifies the main factors that influence it. The model of migration factors is estimated from panel data on Russian regions based on official Rosstat data for 1999–2010. Demographic factors, indicators of the labor market and housing, quality of life, the provision of public goods, infrastructure, and expenditures from regional consolidated budgets on various needs are considered as migration factors. Analysis showed that migration sensitivity is higher to demographic and economic factors (housing provision and per capita income), rather than to different social or other factors. Expenditures on education and healthcare in regions have the biggest impact on migration among all other regional budget expenditures.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Andrienko, Y. and Guriev, S., Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia. Evidence from panel data, Econ. Transition, 2004, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 1–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Brown, A., The Economic Determinants of Internal Migration Flows in Russia during Transition, Work. Pap. No. 89, Ann Arbor, MI: William Davidson Inst., 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  3. Cebula, R.J. and Alexander, G.M., Determinants of net interstate migration, 2000–2004, Spec. Section Migration–JRAP, 2006, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 116–123.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Day, K. and Winer, S., Interregional Migration and Public Policy in Canada: An Empirical Study, Montreal: McGill Queen’s Univ. Press, 2012.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Fidrmuc, J., Migration and regional adjustment to asymmetric shocks in transition economies, J. Comp. Econ., 2004, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 230–247.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Ghatak, S., Mulhern, A., and Watson, J., Interregional migration in transition economies: the case of Poland, Rev. Dev. Econ., 2008, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 209–222.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Golgher, A.B., The selectivity of migration and poverty traps in rural Brazil, Popul. Rev., 2012, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 9–27.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Golgher, A.B., Rosa, C.H., and de Araújo Junior, A.F., Determinants of migration in Brazil: regional polarization and poverty traps, Pap. Pobl., 2008, vol. 56, pp. 135–171.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Etzo, I., The determinants of the recent interregional migration flows in Italy: a panel data analysis, J. Reg. Sci., 2011, vol. 51, no. 5, pp. 948–966.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Guriev, S. and Vakulenko, E., Breaking out of poverty traps: internal migration and interregional convergence in Russia, J. Comp. Econ., 2015, vol. 43, pp. 633–649.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Hauner, D., Explaining differences in public sector efficiency: evidence from Russia’s regions, World Dev., 2008, vol. 36, no. 10, pp. 1745–1765.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Horváth, R., Inter-regional migration of Czech population: the role of liquidity constraints, Ekon. Casopis, 2007, vol. 55, no. 8, pp. 731–746.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Ivaschenko, O., The patterns and determinants of longevity in Russia’s regions: Evidence from panel data, J. Comp. Econ., 2005, vol. 33, pp. 788–813.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Gerber, T., Regional Migration Dynamics in Russia since the Collapse of Communism, Mimeo: Univ. of Arizona, 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Gerber, T., Regional economic performance and net migration rates in Russia, 1993–2002, Int. Migr. Rev., 2006, vol. 40, no. 3, pp. 661–697.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Kumo, K., Migration and Regional Development in the Soviet Union and Russia: A Geographical Approach, Moscow: Beck, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Lee, E., A theory of migration, Demography, 1966, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 47–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. McKenzie, D. and Rapoport, H., Self-selection patterns in Mexico–US migration: the role of migration networks, Rev. Econ. Stat., 2010, vol. 92, no. 4, pp. 811–821.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Michálek, A. and Podolák, P., Socio-economic disparities and migration in Slovakia, Moravian Geogr. Rep., 2010, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 36–45.

    Google Scholar 

  20. Mulhern, A. and Watson, J., Spanish internal migration: Is there anything new to say? Spat. Econ. Anal., 2009, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 103–120.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Napolitano, O. and Bonasia, M., Determinants of different internal migration trends: the Italian experience, 2010. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21734/.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Phan, D. and Coxhead, I., Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam’s transition, J. Dev. Econ., 2010, vol. 91, pp. 100–112.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Sarra, A.L. and Signore, M., A dynamic origin-constrained spatial interaction model applied to Poland’s inter-provincial migration, Spat. Econ. Anal., 2010, vol. 5, no. 1.

  24. Silaghi, M. and Ghatak, S., Why do they move from rural to urban areas? Inter-regional migration in Romania, Rom. J. Econ. Forecasting, 2011, vol. 1, pp. 143–158.

    Google Scholar 

  25. Stock, J.H. and Watson, M.W., Heteroskedasticityrobust standard errors for fixed effects panel data regression, Econometrica, 2008, vol. 76, no. 1, pp. 155–174.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Tiebout, C.M., A pure theory of local expenditures, J. Polit. Econ., 1956, vol. 64, pp. 416–424.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Aivazyan, S.A., Analiz kachestva i obraza zhizni naseleniya (Analysis of the Quality and Lifestyle of Population), Moscow: Tsentr. Ekon.-Matem. Inst., Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2012.

    Google Scholar 

  28. Aleshkovskii, I.A., Determinanty vnutrennei migratsii naseleniya: analiz otechestvennykh i zarubezhnykh issledovanii (The Determinants of Internal Migration: An Analysis of National and International Researches), Moscow: MAKS Press, 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  29. Aleshkovskii, I.A., The determinants of internal migration of Russian population, Extended Abstract of Cand. Sci. (Econ.) Dissertation, Moscow, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  30. Vakulenko, E.S., Does population migration lead to interregional convergence in Russia? Vestn. Novosib. Gos. Univ. Ekon. Uprav., 2013, no. 4, pp. 239–264.

    Google Scholar 

  31. Vakulenko, E.S., Mkrtchyan, N.V., and Furmanov, K.K., Modeling of registered migration flows between the regions of the Russian Federation, Prikl. Ekonometrika, 2011, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 35–55.

    Google Scholar 

  32. Denisenko, M.B., The determinants of interregional migration in Russia, in Noveishie izmeneniya vo vnutrennei i vneshnei migratsii naseleniya v Rossii i ikh ekonomicheskoe znachenie (Newest Changes in Internal and International Migrations of Population in Russia and Their Economic Role), Moscow: Inst. Sots.-Polit. Issled., Ross. Akad. Nauk, 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Korel’, I. and Korel’, L., Migratsionnye i makroekonomicheskie protsessy v postsotsialisticheskoi Rossii: regional’nyi aspekt (Migration and Macroeconomic Processes in Post-Socialistic Russia: Regional Aspect), Moscow: Fond Evraziya, 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  34. Korovkin, A.G., Dolgova, I.N., and Edinak, E.A., Analiz vzaimosvyazi vnutrennei migratsii i sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoi differentsiatsii regionov (na primere Tsentral’nogo federal’nogo okruga) (Analysis of Relationships of Internal Migration and Socioeconomic Differentiation of Regions: Case Study of the Central Federal District), Moscow: MAKS Press, 2013, pp. 71–94.

    Google Scholar 

  35. Mkrtchyan, N.V., Migration in Russia: western drift, Inf. Byull. Tsentra Demogr. Ekol. Chelov., Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2004, no. 87.

  36. Mkrtchyan, N.V., Migration mobility in Russia: evaluation and problems, SPERO, 2009, no. 11, pp. 149–164.

    Google Scholar 

  37. Moiseenko, V.M., Vnutrennyaya migratsiya naseleniya (Internal Migration of Population), Moscow: TEIS, 2004.

    Google Scholar 

  38. Naselenie Rossii 2007. Pyatnadtsatyi ezhegodnyi demograficheskii doklad (The Fifteenth Annual Demographic Report “Population of Russia, 2007”), Vishnevskiy, A.G., Ed., Moscow: Vysshaya Shkola Ekon., 2009.

  39. Ratnikova, T.A., Vvedenie v ekonometricheskii analiz panel’nykh dannykh (Introduction to Econometric Analysis of the Panel Data), Moscow: Vysshaya Shkola Ekon., 2010.

    Google Scholar 

  40. Rossiya regionov: v kakom sotsial’nom prostranstve my zhivem? (Russia of Regions: In What Social Space We Are Living?), Moscow: Pomatur, 2005.

  41. Chudinovskikh, O.S., Migration accounting in Russia: reasons and consequences of crisis, Demoscope Weekly, 2005, nos. 185–186.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to E. S. Vakulenko.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © E.S. Vakulenko, 2015, published in Regional’nye Issledovaniya, 2015, No. 4, pp. 83–98.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Vakulenko, E.S. Econometric analysis of factors of internal migration in Russia. Reg. Res. Russ. 6, 344–356 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079970516040134

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079970516040134

Keywords

Navigation