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The Strategic Choice of ROK Facing the Sino-US Competition

  • Original Article
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East Asian Community Review

Abstract

President Donald Trump’s vision for US foreign policy can be summed up in two words: “America First” and isolationism. In the name of national interests, Trump’s America has not only treated its allies with a tint of harshness or contempt, but also defined China as a “revisionist” or “competitor.” Most of all, the Trump administration has intensified frictions and conflicts with China in all domains. Sino-US competition is the biggest external factor influencing the present and future situation of the Korean peninsula. As an ally of the USA and a strategic partner of China, the Republic of Korea (ROK) has clearly felt the pressure from the increasingly fierce competition between China and USA. On the one hand, it is difficult for ROK to disengage from military dependence on the USA. On the other hand, it is also inconceivable for ROK to terminate its political and economic cooperation with China. A series of policy measures implemented by the Moon Jae-in administration deserves some credit for strengthening the confidence that ROK can exert its diplomatic autonomy and flexibility and control its destiny. This article argues that, in an era of China–USA competition, ROK needs to find a way to avoid strategic dilemmas and make its diplomatic decisions more effective, only by judging accurately the changes of the geopolitical and geoeconomic climate in East Asia and anticipating reasonably the trajectory of China–USA competition.

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Notes

  1. Trump did three things after he was elected President of the USA. First, he redefined national interests. He pointed out that national interests should include the security, prosperity and free democracy of the USA, but international governance, security and interests of other countries are not the concerns of the USA. Second, the USA should focus all its attention on its own country to ensure its security and prosperity. Third, the USA should reduce its overseas obligations, intervene only in matters related to its security and prosperity and determine its policies in accordance with its national interests. After being elected President of the USA, Trump withdrew from the TPP and Paris Climate Change Agreements, reduced financial assistance to the United Nations and other international organizations, and re-talked with the countries concerned about the FTA that had been signed. Teng (2018) Strategic Focus Shift of Trump Administration. Contemporary World 3:35.

  2. In 2017, despite the impact of the THAAD anti-missile system issue, the total trade volume between China and ROK reached 280.36 billion US dollars, up 10.3% year-on-year, much higher than the total trade volume between ROK and the USA ($119.35 billion) and between ROK and Japan ($81.96 billion). “Country Trade Report—ROK,” China’s Ministry of Commerce (2018). https://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/record/qikan110209.asp?id=9857.

  3. President Moon Jae-in first put forward the “Nine Bridges Strategic Plan” when he attended the Oriental Economic Forum on September 7, 2018. The plan aims to strengthen cooperation between ROK and Russia in nine areas (gasoline, railways, harbors, electricity, Arctic waterways, shipbuilding, employment, agriculture and aquatic products) in order to achieve mutual benefit and win–win situation. “ROK and Russia should explore new areas of cooperation on the basis of the Nine Bridges,” keynote speech of LeeHae-chan’s fourth Oriental Economic Forum, September 12, 2018. http://news1.kr/articles/3424693.

  4. There are three conditions for ROK to regain its wartime operational control: first, a stable security environment on the Korean Peninsula; secondly, after the handover of wartime operational control from the USA, the ROK Army has the core military capability to dominate the joint defense forces between the two countries, while the USA can provide sustainable complementary forces; and thirdly, the ROK Army has the ability to respond to the DPRK nuclear and missile threat in the early stage of local provocation and comprehensive war, while the USA provides extended deterrence means and combat capability equipment.

  5. In September 2018, President Moon Jae-in visited Pyongyang. While the DPRK and the ROK issued the Pyongyang Joint Declaration, defense ministers signed the Agreement on the Implementation of the Historic Panmunjeom Declaration in the Military Domain.

    [Korea] Daily News, 2018.9.19. http://www.m-i.kr/news/articleView.html?Idxno=454649.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by a major grant of the Ministry of Education (2017JJDGJW005), titled “Trends and Changes in Korean Peninsula and Our Response”.

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Correspondence to Huizhi Zhang.

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Zhang, H. The Strategic Choice of ROK Facing the Sino-US Competition. East Asian Community Rev 1, 127–145 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s42215-019-00011-7

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