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A Risk-Based Balance Inexact Optimization Model for Water Quality Management with Sustainable Wetland System Development—A Case Study of North China

  • China Coastal Wetlands
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Abstract

In this study, a risk-based balance inexact water resources optimization model for considering wetland ecological water demand and water quality problems, based on interval-parameter programming, fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming, and downside risk-aversion measure, is developed for regional water resources management in Nansihu Lake basin, Shangdong province, China. The developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions. Moreover, risk aversion is incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through downside risk methodology, in order to limit the risk of failing to reach an income target of competitive regions in the lake basin and reflect the preference of decision makers, such that the tradeoff between system economy, ecological water demand, and income target could be analyzed. All suggested scenarios (e.g. the plausibility degree of ecological water demand and the risk level of unbalance income) are determined by management requirement. The results indicated that different water inflow and ecological-related water demand levels correspond to different water shortages and allocation schemes of different water sources, and thus lead to varied system benefit and system-failure risk. The proposed model is valuable for supporting mid-/long-term water resources management under economic, environmental, ecological, and system balance development considerations.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by National Basic Research Program of China, Grant No. 2013CB430401, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (13XS20), and the Major Project Program of the Natural Sciences Foundation (51190095). The authors are extremely grateful to the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China

    Yulei Xie, Guohe Huang, Wei Li, Yanfeng Li, Jixian Cui & Xiaowei Sun

Authors
  1. Yulei Xie
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  2. Guohe Huang
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  3. Wei Li
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  4. Yanfeng Li
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  5. Jixian Cui
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guohe Huang.

Appendix

Appendix

t

Planning period, t = 1 for the planning period of 2015 to 2019, t = 2 for the planning period of 2020 to 2024

k

Planning region, k = 1, 2, 3 and 4 for Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze District, and Xuzhou District

i

Public water sources, i = 1 and 2 for surface water of the Lake Basin and Yellow River

j

Independent water source, j = 1 and 2 for surface water and ground water resources.

h

Water inflow level of Nansihu Lake, h = 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 for low, low-medium, medium, medium-high, and high level, respectively

s

Water inflow level of Yellow River, s = 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 for low, low-medium, medium, medium-high, and high level, respectively

r

Water user, r = 1, 2, 3, and 4 for industrial, agricultural, municipal and environmental sectors

n

Water pollutant, r = 1 and 2 for COD and NH3-N

L t

Length of planning period

p h

Water inflow’s probability of Nansihu Lake

p s

Water inflow’s probability of Yellow River

W ± krit

Water supply target from public water sources (106 m3/year)

Q ± krhst

Water shortage under h and s inflow level (106 m3/year)

IWS ± krjt

Water supply for user r from independent water sources (106 m3/year)

YW ± krt

Water diverted from Yangtze River for user r in region k (106 m3/year)

RW ± krt

Recycle water supply (106 m3/year)

NB ± krt

Benefit of per water consumption (106RMB¥/106 m3)

CIN ± krt

Reduction of net benefit to user r per unit of water not delivered (106RMB¥/106 m3)

CRW ± krt

Cost of reused water treatment and supply (106RMB¥/106 m3)

CWWT ± krt

Cost of wastewater treatment (106RMB¥/106 m3)

ξ ± krt

Recycling rate of wastewater

β ± krt

Concentrated wastewater treatment rate

DRisk ± kt

Downside risk of each region

λ

Weight coefficient

AWT ±1h

Available water resources capacity of Nansihu Lake (106 m3/year)

TWP ±2s

Available water resources capacity of Yellow River (106 m3/year)

TWP ±1h

Amount of water resources of Nansihu Lake (106 m3/year)

\( {\tilde{EWD}}_{\alpha}^{\pm } \)

Wetland ecological-related water demand (106 m3/year)

ARW ± t

Effective precipitation (106 m3/year)

DW ± krt

Water demand (106 m3/year)

TWI ± kjt

Available water resources of independent water sources (106 m3/year)

TWY ± t

Available water resources diverted from Yangtze River (106 m3/year)

SWT ± kt

Wastewater treatment capacity (106 m3/year)

γ ± krt

Wastewater discharge of per water consumption (106 m3/106 m3)

CRT ± kt

Capacity of wastewater reuses treatment (106 m3/year)

MRW ± kt

Capacity of municipal water reuses treatment (106 m3/year)

EC ± rnt

Pollutant concentration in treated wastewater (tonne/106 m3)

SC ± rnt

Pollutant concentration in untreated wastewater (tonne/106 m3)

APE ± knt

Allowable emission amount of pollutant n in each region (tonne/year)

TPE ± nt

Allowable emission amount of pollutant in the basin (tonne/year)

SNI ± khst

Net benefit of each region (106RMB¥)

Ω ± kt

Income target of each region (106RMB¥)

Delta ± khst

Positive deviation from the profit target and scenario income (106RMB¥)

 

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Xie, Y., Huang, G., Li, W. et al. A Risk-Based Balance Inexact Optimization Model for Water Quality Management with Sustainable Wetland System Development—A Case Study of North China. Wetlands 36 (Suppl 1), 205–222 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-014-0604-4

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