Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar City, Pakistan

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abd El-AaL AK (2010a) Ground motion prediction from nearest seismogenic zones in and around Greater Cairo Area, Egypt. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:1495–1511

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abd El-AaL AK (2010b) Modeling of seismic hazard at the northeastern part of greater Cairo metropolitan area. Egypt J Geophys Eng 7:75–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abrahamson NA, Silva WJ (2008) Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA ground-motion relations. Earthquake Spectra 24(1):67–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ali Hamza Kazmi (1979) Active fault systems in Pakistan. Geodynamics of Pakistan, pp. 285–294

  • Ambraseys NN, Melville CP (1982) A history of Persian earthquakes. Cambridge University Press, London, p 219

    Google Scholar 

  • Ambraseys NN, Simpson KA, Bommer JJ (1996) Prediction of horizontal response spectra in Europe. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 25:371–400

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson JG (1997) Benefits of scenario ground motion maps. Eng Geol 48(1):43–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson JG, Brune JN, Anooshehpoor R, Ni S (2000) New Ground motion data and concepts in seismic hazard analysis. Curr Sci 79(9):1278–1290

    Google Scholar 

  • Bazzuro P, Cornell CA (1999) Disaggregation of seismic hazard. Bull Seismol Soc Am 89(2):501–520

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhatti AQ, Hassan SZU, Rafi Z, Khatoon Z, Ali Q (2011) Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Islamabad, Pakistan. J Asian Earth Sci 42(3):468–478. doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2011.05.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boore DM, Atkinson GM (2007) Boore-Atkinson NGA ground motion relations for the geometric mean horizontal component of peak and spectral ground motion parameters, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Center, Berkeley, California. Report No.2007/01

  • Boore DM, Joyner WB, Fumal TE (1997) Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration from Western North American earthquakes: a summary of recent work. Seismol Res Lett 68(1):128–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Building Codes of Pakistan Seismic Provisions (2007) Pakistan Engineering council. http://www.pec.org.pk/buildingcode.aspx

  • Byrnet ED, Lynnr S (1992) Great thrust earthquakes and aseismic slip along the plate boundary of the Makran subduction zone. Journal of geophysical research 97(B1):449–478.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell KW, Bozorgnia Y (2008) NGA ground motion model for the geometric mean horizontal component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5 % damped linear elastic response spectra for periods ranging from 0.01 to 10s. Earthquake Spectra 24(1):139–171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clift PD (2002) A brief history of the Indus River. In, Clift PD, Kroon D, Craig J, and Gaedicke C (Editors), The tectonic and climatic evolution of the Arabian Sea region, Geological Society of London special publication, 195, 237–258

  • Clift PD, Carter A, Krol M, Kirby E (2002) Constraints on India–Eurasia collision in the Arabian Sea region taken from the Indus Group, Ladakh Himalaya, India. In: Clift PD, D Kroon, C Geadicke and J Craig (eds), The tectonic and climatic evolution of the Arabian Sea Region. Geological Society Special Publication 195: pp.97–116

  • Cornell CA (1968) Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull Seismol Soc Am 58:1583–1606

    Google Scholar 

  • Dykstra JD, Birnie WR (1979) Segmentation of the Quarternary subduction zone under the Baluchistan region of Pakistan and Iran. Geodynamics of Pakistan. pp. 319–324

  • Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1954) Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena, 310. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Haghipour A, Chorashi M, Kadjar MH (1984) Explanatory text of seismotectonic map of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Commission for geological map of world-UNESCO, Geol. Surv. of Iran, Tehran

  • International Seismological Centre (2010) Internatl. Seis. Cent., Thatcham, UK. On-line Bulletin. http://www.isc.ac.uk

  • McGuire RK (1976) FORTRAN computer programs for seismic risk analysis. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report No.76367

  • McGuire RK (1995) Probabilistic seismic hazard and design earthquakes: closing the loop. Bull Seismol Soc Am 85(5):1275–1284

    Google Scholar 

  • McGuire RK (2001) Deterministic vs. probabilistic earthquake hazards and risks. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 21(5):377–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mokhtari M, Abdollahie Fard I, Hessami K (2008) Structural elements of the Makran Region, Oman Sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenesis. Nat Hazards 47:185–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mona L, Khawaja AA, Javed M, Yawer SA, Qasim IM (2005) Seismic hazard assessment of NW Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belt, Pakistan, using probabilistic approach. Proc Pakistan Acad Sci 42(4):287–295

    Google Scholar 

  • Nowroozi AA (1985) Empirical relations between magnitudes and fault parameters for earthquakes in Iran. Bull Seismol Soc Am 75:1327–1338

    Google Scholar 

  • Powell CMcA (1979) A speculative tectonic history of Pakistan and surroundings: some constraints from the Indian Ocean, Geodynamics of Pakistan pp. 5–24

  • Quittmeyer RC, Alan LK (1984) Focal Mechanisms and Depths of Earthquakes in Central Pakistan: A Tectonic interpretation journal of geophysical research 89(B4):2459–2470. doi:10.1029/JB089iB04p02459

  • Rafi Z, Lindholm C, Bungum H, Laghari A, Ahmed N (2011) Probabilistic seismic hazard of Pakistan, Azad-Jammu and Kashmir. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9984-4

  • Scordilis EM (2006) Empirical global relations converting Ms and mb to moment magnitude. J Seismol 10:225–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shafiq Ur Rehman, Tahir Azeem, Abd El-Aal AK (2011) Relocation of earthquakes in Pakistan using broadband stations. Journal of Geophysics (NRIAG), special issue on 13th General Scientific Meeting, pp. 02–16

  • Shafiq Ur Rehman, Najeeb Ahmed, Conrad Lindholm (2012) Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the city of Quetta, Pakistan. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Technical Report No. PMD-16/2012

  • Slemmons DB (1982) Determination of design earthquake magnitudes for microzonation, Proceedings of the third international earthquake microzonation conference. Vol.1. U.S. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C, pp 119–130

    Google Scholar 

  • Stocklin J (1974) Possible ancient continental margin in Iran. In: Burk, CA, Drake CL (eds), The Geology of Continental Margins. Springer, Berlin, pp. 873–887

  • Stoneley R (1974) Evolution of the continental margins bounding a former southern Tethys. In: Burk C, and Drake C (eds), The Geology of Continental Margins. Springer, Berlin, pp. 889–903

  • United States Geological Survey (USGS-PDE): Earthquake data catalogue of USGS. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/epic/

  • Wells DL, Coppersmith KJ (1994) (1994): New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84(4):974–1002

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Shafiq Ur Rehman

  2. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Karachi, Pakistan

    Muhammad Khalid & Asif Ali

  3. National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Cairo, Egypt

    Abd El-aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal

Authors
  1. Shafiq Ur Rehman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Muhammad Khalid
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Asif Ali
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Abd El-aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shafiq Ur Rehman.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Rehman, S.U., Khalid, M., Ali, A. et al. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar City, Pakistan. Arab J Geosci 6, 3481–3492 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-012-0635-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-012-0635-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation