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The potential for large-scale savings from insulating residential buildings in the EU

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Abstract

Energy used in buildings is responsible for more than 40% of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the EU and their share in cost-efficient GHG mitigation potentials is estimated to be even higher. In spite of its huge savings potential of up to 80%, achievements are very slow in the building sector and much stronger political action seems to be needed. One important step in this direction has been the recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) in autumn 2009. However, strong national implementation including powerful packages of flanking measures seems to be crucial to really make significant progress in this important field. In order to directly improve political action, we provide a differentiated country-by-country bottom up simulation of residential buildings for the whole EU, Norway, Iceland, Croatia and Liechtenstein. The analysis provides a database of the building stock by construction periods, building types, as well as typical building sizes. It includes a simulation of the thermal quality and costs of the components of the building shell for new buildings as well as the refurbishment of the existing building stock. Based on this differentiated analysis, we show in detail what would be needed to accelerate energy savings in the building sector and provide a more precise estimate of the potentials to be targeted by particular policies. We demonstrate, e.g. that the potential of building codes set via the EPBD would be located mainly in those countries that already have quite stringent codes in place. We show as well the high relevance of accelerating refurbishments and re-investment cycles of buildings. By providing a clear estimate of the full costs related to such a strategy, we highlight a major obstacle to accelerated energy-efficient building renovation and construction.

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Notes

  1. EURIMA, ECOFYS 2005a,b; Lechtenböhmer et al. 2005

  2. There are more detailed models, e.g. for Germany, which represent the nations residential buildings by about 20 representative buildings, based on building statistics and emprical results on their energetic quality. However, even for these models, data availability is a core problem.

  3. Boverket 2005; MIIR, FIHF 2007

  4. EURIMA 2005

  5. Heating degree days are quantitative indices and result from national temperature observations. Over 1 year (typically) the differences between each day´s daily temperature and 18°C (or another reference temperature) are added. Above a temperature of 18°C, it is assumed not to need any heating (the current indoor temperature will be higher due to insulation of the building).

  6. Long-term average (1980–2004)

  7. In this climate zone, energy needs for cooling play a significant role. They are not accounted for in the current version of our model.

  8. An increasing productivity of workers does not automatically lead to lower costs. However, according to past trends, we assume here that much higher volumes of refurbishment will make lower prices feasible, due to learning and increasing competition.

  9. See the results of a workshop about energy efficiency and their enhanced compliance organised by the International Energy Agency (IEA) February 2008 in Paris.

  10. This assumption of our technical potential scenario is no longer realistic as a market share of 20% for passive houses in new buildings has been achieved only in few regions. However, in theory, it is still possible that in the technical scenario, a 100% share of passive houses would be implemented by 2015 which then would roughly compensate the current delay. Overall, we assume that the TP-scenario still is a relevant indication for the technical potential.

  11. Here, not only fuel prices have to be taken into account but also the average infrastructure costs and other variable costs of the heating system.

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Acknowledgements

This paper is partly based on research conducted by the Wuppertal Institute in the framework of the Study on the Energy Savings Potentials in EU Member States, Candidate Countries and EEA Countries for the European Commission, Directorate General Energy and Transport (EC Service Contract Number TREN/D1/239-2006/S07.66640) which was carried out in cooperation with FHG-ISI, ISIS, Enerdata and TU Vienna. We would like to thank our colleagues from the research institutes and the officers from DG TREN for the useful discussion and inputs to our work as well as Thomas Hanke from the Wuppertal Institute for his contribution for systems analysis and modelling of the data. We particularly thank the reviewers from Energy Efficiency for their valuable comments, and Jacky Pett for reviewing an earlier version of the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment Energy, Döppersberg 19, 42103, Wuppertal, Germany

    Stefan Lechtenböhmer

  2. Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs, Germany, Krausenstraße 17-20, 10117, Berlin, Germany

    Andreas Schüring

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  1. Stefan Lechtenböhmer
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  2. Andreas Schüring
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Correspondence to Stefan Lechtenböhmer.

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Lechtenböhmer, S., Schüring, A. The potential for large-scale savings from insulating residential buildings in the EU. Energy Efficiency 4, 257–270 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-010-9090-6

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