Abstract
This study takes environmental policy stringency and economic activity as the controlling variables and forecasts the CO2 emissions in China up to 2022. In doing so, an application of corrected grey model with convolution is used over the annual time series data between 1990 and 2012. The simulation results show that (1) between 2012 and 2022, CO2 emissions in China is expected to increase at an average rate of 17.46% annually, raising the emissions intensity from 7.04 in 2012 to 25.461 metric tons per capita by 2022; (2) stringent environmental policies reduce CO2 emissions—whereas, GDP tends to increase the emissions intensity in China; (3) stringent environmental policies are found to have a negative impact on GDP in China. Based on the empirical findings, the study also provides some policy suggestions to reduce emissions intensity in China.
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Notes
The EPS is developed using a composite index approach; for details, see Botta and Kozluk (2014).
For details, see. https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EPS.
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Appendix
Appendix
A grey model GM(1,1) is applied in order to examine the independent dynamics of CO2 emissions. It can be seen from the Table 8 results given that CO2 emissions are expected to be increased until no other factors are taken to control/influence this increase (Fig. 5).
Forecast values for CO2 emissions
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Ahmed, K., Ahmed, S. A predictive analysis of CO2 emissions, environmental policy stringency, and economic growth in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 25, 16091–16100 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1849-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1849-x