Abstract
In recent years many public colleges have attempted to attract and enroll high-achieving and diverse out-of-state students. Understanding why admitted out-of-state students choose to accept or decline their offers of admission has become an important part of these institutions’ efforts to achieve their enrollment goals. In this study, out-of-state students admitted to a public research university over a period of 5 years are tracked using the National Student Clearinghouse database to establish their destination institutions. The dependent variable reflects the type of institution chosen by these students, i.e. private or public, in-state or out-of-state, 4-year or 2-year. The baseline group is composed of those out-of-state students who chose to enroll at the study institution. Mixed multinomial models are estimated using the R mlogit package. Findings indicate that the type of institution these students choose is associated with their high school performance and their parents’ educational attainment and income, as well as with the financial aid they were offered by the study institution.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Hillman (2012) suggests that in some cases use of merit aid to attract high achieving out-of-state students might outweigh the financial benefits of higher tuition revenue. “Eventually, institutions that aid students from unfunded sources will approach economic inefficiencies that are neither politically nor financially sustainable” (ibid, p. 228). Higher education policy experts also suggest that the demand from well-qualified out-of-state students is modest, which might lead public universities to attract students from abroad (Bound et al. 2016).
Out-of-state students who pay in-state tuition are excluded from the study.
One should note, that the indicator of income from the admissions questionnaire used here should be considered with caution, since as shown by Olivas (1986; cited by Gonyea 2005), some students tend to overestimate actual income.
References
Amemiya, T. (1981). Qualitative response models: A survey. Journal of Economic Literature, 19, 1483–1536.
Becker, G. S. (1964). Human capital. New York: Columbia University Press.
Berge, D. A., & Hendel, D. D. (2003, Winter). Using logistic regression to guide enrollment management at a public regional university. AIR professional file. Tallahassee, FL: The Association for Institutional research.
Bound, J., Braga, B., Khanna, G., & Turner, S. (2016). A passage to America: University funding and international students. NBER Working Paper, 22981. Retrieved March 20, 2018 from http://www.nber.org/papers/w22981.pdf.
Bourdieu, P. (1986). The forms of capital. In J.G. Richardson (Ed.) Handbook of theory and research for the sociology of education (pp. 241–258). New York: Greenwood Press.
Braunstein, A., Mcgrath, M., & Pescatrice, D. (1999). Measuring the impact of income and financial aid offers on college enrollment decisions. Research in Higher Education, 40(3), 247–259.
Bruggink, T. H., & Gambhir, V. (1996). Statistical models for college admission and enrollment: A case study for a selective liberal arts college. Research in Higher Education, 37(2), 221–240.
Burd, S. (2015). The out-of-state student arms race: How public universities use merit aid to recruit nonresident students. New America. Retrieved March 15, 2017 from https://www.newamerica.org/education-policy/policy-papers/out-of-state-student-arms-race/.
Cheng, S., & Long, S. (2007). Testing for IIA in the multinomial logit model. Sociological Methods & Research, 35(4), 583–600.
Chetty, R., Hendren, N., Jones, M. R., & Porter, S. R. (2018). Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective. Retrieved March 28, 2018 from http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/assets/documents/race_paper.pdf.
Coleman, J. S. (1988). Social capital in the creation of human capital. American Journal of Sociology, 94, S95–S120.
Davies, S., & Guppy, N. (1997). Fields of study, college selectivity, and student inequalities in higher education. Social Forces, 75(4),1417–1438.
Croissant, Y. (2015). Estimation of multinomial logit models in R: The mlogit packages. Retrieved March 19, 2015 from http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mlogit/vignettes/mlogit.pdf.
DesJardins, S. L. (2002). An analytic strategy to assist institutional recruitment and marketing efforts. Research in Higher Education, 43(5), 531–553.
DesJardins, S. L., Ahlburg, D. A., & McCall, B. P. (2006). An integrated model of application, admission, enrollment, and financial aid. Journal of Higher Education, 77(3), 381–429.
Dow, J. K., & Endersby, J. W. (2004). Multinomial probit and multinomial logit: A comparison of choice models for voting research. Electoral Studies, 23, 107–122.
Dynarski, S. (2000). Hope for whom? Financial aid for the middle class and its impact on college attendance. National Tax Journal, 53(3), 629–662.
Dynarski, S. (2003). Does aid matter? Measuring the effect of student aid on college attendance and completion. American Economic Review, 93(1), 279–288.
Ehrenberg, R. G. (2003). Method or madness? Inside the USNWR college rankings. Cornell University ILR School Working Papers. Retrieved on March 23, 2017 from http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/workingpapers.
Ehrenberg, R. G., & Sherman, D. R. (1984). Optimal financial aid policies for a selective university. Journal of Human Resources, 19, 1–23.
Engle, J. (2007). Postsecondary access and success for first-generation college students. American Academic, 3, 25–48.
Goenner, C. F., & Pauls, K. (2006). A predictive model of inquiry to enrollment. Research in Higher Education, 47(8), 935–956.
Gonyea, R. M. (2005). Self-reported data in institutional research: Review and recommendations. New Directions for Institutional Research, 127, 73–89.
Hausman, Jerry A., & McFadden, Daniel. (1984). Specification tests for the multinomial logit model. Econometrica, 52, 1219–1240.
Heller, D. E. (1997). Student price response in higher education: An update to Leslie and Brinkman. The Journal of Higher Education, 68, 624–659.
Hillman, N. W. (2012). Tuition discounting for revenue management. Research in Higher Education, 53(3), 263–281.
Hillman, N., & Weichman, T. (2016). Education deserts: The continued significance of “place” in the twenty-first century. Viewpoints: Voices from the Field. Washington, DC: American Council on Education.
Hoetker, G. (2007). The use of logit and probit models in strategic management research: Critical issues. Strategic Management Journal, 28, 331–343.
Holland, J. (1966). The psychology of vocational choice. Waltham: Blaisdell.
Holland, J. (1973). Making vocational choices: A theory of careers. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.
Holland, J. (1987). Current status of Holland’s theory of careers: Another perspective. Career Development Quarterly, 36, 24–30.
Holland, J. L. (1997). Making vocational choices: A theory of vocational personalities and work environments (3rd ed.). Odessa: Psychological Assessment Resources Inc.
Hossler, D., Braxton, J., & Coopersmith, G. (1989). Understanding student college choice. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research (Vol. 5, pp. 231–288). New York: Agathon Press.
Hossler, D., & Galagher, K. S. (1987). Studying college choice: A three-phase model and the implications for policy makers. College and University, 2, 207–221.
Hossler, D., Schmit, J., & Vesper, N. (1999). Going to college: How social, economic, and educational factors influence the decisions students make. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Hossler, D., Ziskin, M., Gross, J. P. K., Kim, S., & Cekic, O. (2009). Student aid and its role in encouraging persistence. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research (Vol. 24, pp. 389–425). New York, NY: Springer.
Hurtado, S., Inkelas, K. K., Briggs, C., & Rhee, B.-S. (1997). Differences in college access and choice among racial/ethnic groups: Identifying continuing barriers. Research in Higher Education, 38(1), 43–75.
Jaquette, O., & Curs, B. R. (2015). Creating the out-of-state university: Do public universities increase nonresident freshman enrollment in response to declining state appropriations? Research in Higher Education, 56(6), 535–565.
Johnson, I. Y. (2008). Enrollment, persistence and graduation of in-state students at a public research university: Does high school matter? Research in Higher Education, 49(8), 776–793.
Keane, M. P. (2002). Financial aid, borrowing constraints, and college attendance: Evidence from structural estimates. American Economic Review, 92(2), 293–297.
Kim, D. (2004). The effect of financial aid on students’ college choice: Differences by racial groups. Research in Higher Education, 45(1), 43–70.
Kofoed, M. S. (2017). To apply or not to apply: FAFSA completion and financial aid gaps. Research in Higher Education, 58(1), 1–39.
Leslie, L. L., & Brinkman, P. T. (1988). The economic value of higher education. New York: American Council on Education, MacMillan Publishing Company.
Lolli, A., & Scannell, J. (1983). Expanding the focus of admissions marketing utility. College and University, 59, 5–27.
Long, J. S., & Freeze, J. (2014). Regression models for categorical dependent variables using stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.
Ma, Y., & Savas, G. (2014). Which is more consequential: Fields of study or institutional selectivity? Review of Higher Education, 37(2), 221–247.
Maguire, J., & Lay, R. (1981). Modeling the college choice process: Image and decision. College and University, 56, 123–139.
Manski, C. F., & Wise, D. A. (1983). College choice in America. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
McFadden, D. (1974). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (Ed.) Frontiers of econometrics (pp. 105–142). New York: Academic Press.
Niu, S. X., & Tienda, M. (2008). Choosing colleges: Identifying and modeling choice sets. Social Science Research, 37(2), 416–433.
Norton, E. C., Wang, H., & Ai, C. (2004). Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models. The Stata Journal, 4(2), 154–167.
Nunez, A., & Cuccaro-Alamin, S. (1998). First-generation students: Undergraduates whose parents never enrolled in postsecondary education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Paulsen, M. B. (2001). The economics of human capital and investment in higher education. In M. B. Paulsen & J. C. Smart (Eds.), The finance of higher education: Theory, research, policy, and practice (pp. 55–94). New York: Agathon Press.
Perna, L. W. (2006). Studying college access and choice: A proposed conceptual model. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher education: Handbook of theory and research (Vol. XXI, pp. 99–157). New York, Y: Springer.
Rizzo, M. J., & Ehrenberg, R. G. (2004). Resident and nonresident tuition and enrollment at flagship state universities. In C. M. Hoxby (Ed.), College choice: The economics of where to go, when to go, and how to pay for it. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ryman, A. (2013, February 7). Colleges covet out-of-state students. USA Today. Retrieved September 1, 2015 from http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/02/07/arizona-colleges-out-of-state-students/1899499/.
Smith, C. (2018, April). Why historically black colleges are enjoying a renaissance? National Geographic, “The Race Issue”.
St. John, E. P. (1990). Price response in enrollment decisions: An analysis of the high school and beyond sophomore cohort. Research in Higher Education, 31(2), 161–176.
St. John, E. P. (1993). Untangling the web: Using price-response measures in enrollment projections. Journal of Higher Education, 64(6), 676–695.
St. John, E. P., Hu, S., & Tuttle, T. (2000). Persistence by undergraduates in an urban public university: Understanding the effects of financial aid. NASFAA Journal of Student Financial Aid, 30(2), 23–37.
St. John, E. P., & Somers, P. A. (1993). Assessing the impact of financial aid offers on enrollment decisions. Journal of Student Financial Aid, 23(3), 7–12.
Thistlethwaite, D., & Campbell, D. (1960). Regression–discontinuity analysis: An alternative to the ex post facto experiment. Journal of Educational Psychology, 51, 309–317.
Thomas, E., Dawes, W., Reznik, & G. (2001, Winter). Using predictive modeling to target student recruitment: Theory and practice. AIR Professional File. Tallahassee, FL: The Association for Institutional research.
Train, K. E. (2009). Discrete choice models with simulation. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Train, K., & Croissant, Y. (2015). Kenneth Train’s exercises using the mlogit package for R. Retrieved March 19, 2015 from http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mlogit/vignettes/Exercises.pdf.
Van Der Klaauw, W. (2002). Estimating the effect of financial aid offers on college enrollment: A regression–discontinuity approach. International Economic Review, 43, 1249–1287.
Welki, A. M., & Navratil, F. J. (1987). The role of applicants’ perceptions in the choice of college. College and University, 62, 147–160.
Wolniak, G. C., & Engberg, M. E. (2007). The effects of high school feeder networks on college enrollment. The Review of Higher Education, 31(1), 27–53.
National Student Clearinghouse (n.d.). StudentTracker Frequently Asked Questions. Retrieved from http://www.studentclearinghouse.org/colleges/studenttracker/faqs.php).
Zemsky, R., & Oedel, P. (1983). The structure of college choice. New York: College Entrance Examination Board.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Dr. Drew Clark and two anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions to the previous drafts of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Johnson, I.Y. Destinations of Admitted Out-of-State Students: A Case of One Institution. Res High Educ 60, 315–337 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-018-9516-0
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-018-9516-0