Abstract
Following the recent increase of foreign direct investments in land, this paper studies their possible effects on the development of a local economy. To this aim, we use a two-sector model (external and local) with heterogeneous agents: external investors and local land owners. We assume that both sectors are negatively affected by pollution, but only the external sector is polluting. The local government can tax the external sector’s production activities to finance environmental defensive expenditures. We first examine the equilibria that emerge in the model from the dynamics of pollution and physical capital, and then investigate the conditions for the coexistence of the two sectors and the impact of the external sector on the revenues of the local population. Using numerical simulations, we show that a revenue-increasing path may occur only if the pollution tax is high enough and the impact of the external sector on pollution is low enough. Otherwise, foreign direct investments may end up impoverishing the local population.
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Notes
By this term, we refer to FDI in land acquisition to produce agricultural goods in developing countries (Saturnino et al. 2011).
Authors’ own estimations based on data retrieved from http://www.landmatrix.org.
In a study on the drivers of FDI for bio-fuel in Sub-Saharan Africa, Giovannetti and Ticci (2016) have shown that capital is attracted by water abundance, weak institutional framework and ill-defined land property rights.
This dataset considers signed deals in all the acquisitions of land by domestic and international investors larger than 200 hectares for activities spanning from agricultural production to tourist resorts. Although the dataset still suffers from a few problems, such as changes of definitions over time and a degree of uncertainty on some deals, it is an important source of information that can open new research strands in the next few years.
For the sake of simplicity, we suppose that each agent inelastically employs all her labour endowment in the production process, so that the labour input is equal to one in the production function. This simplifying assumption allows to exclude labour from the inputs of the production function and to focus on the land owner’s choice between land and capital, which is the object of our analysis.
An interesting contribution that is germane to this study is the one by Corato et al. (2013) who examine the landholder decision to allocate land between two possible competing and mutually exclusive uses: conservation (leaving land in its pristine state) and development (using it as an input for agricultural production or for commercial forestry). Differently from their study, we assume the existence of two different actors (local land owners and external investors) and that land is used as production inputs of both existing sectors (rather than conserved and left unproductive). Moreover, while that model focuses mainly on the land conversion pace under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversibility of the decisions, here we focus on the effects of external FDI in land on the revenues of local landholders.
Examples of real cases in which the external sector caused serious environmental damages have occurred in Kenya (FIAN 2010), Tanzania (Arduino et al. 2012), Ghana (Williams et al. 2012), and Mozambique (Woodhouse 2012), particularly due to the intensive use of fertilizers and pesticides (both in food crops and bio-fuel production). In other cases the governments of some countries, such as Madagascar, Sudan, and Cambodia (see, Daniel and Mittal 2009; Haralambous et al. 2009) were forced to ask for international food aid relief due to the loss of land productivity of the local sector caused by the external sector’s pollution.
Several other contributions in the literature assume a negative impact of pollution on the output of the economy, using Cobb–Douglas production functions (e.g. Rezai et al. 2012; Hackett and Moxnes 2015; Dao et al. 2017). In particular, Hackett and Moxnes (2015) adopt a formalization that is akin to the one presented here, assuming that pollution-related temperature increase affects total factor productivity through a climate damage multiplier that reduces the overall output. A few theoretical models (e.g. Ikefuji and Horii 2012; Bretschger 2017; Bretschger and Pattakou 2018), moreover, assume that pollution specifically affects capital. For instance, using a two-sector model, Bretschger and Pattakou (2018) assume that pollution stock harms capital and examine the effects of high marginal climate damages that may occur when temperature thresholds are reached.
It is estimated (FAO and ITPS 2015) that about one third of the total land available at the world level is degraded due to erosion, salinization, acidification and chemical pollution of soil.
Notice that in a discrete time model, first land allocation takes place (say, at time t), and then production occurs (at \(t+1\)). In the present context with continuous time, instead, the time horizon collapses to a single instant of time.
As Antoci et al. (2012) have shown, pathological outcomes similar to the ones highlighted in this paper may arise even if we assume that agents are forward looking and can perform intertemporal optimization. This suggests that in the present context, the existence of coordination failures is likely to matter more than the degree of rationality of the agents in driving the findings of the model.
Notice that, if the economy specializes in the external sector, then \(K_{L}=0\) and \(L=0\). If this is the case, from (5) it follows that the saving rate and/or the land rental price would have to be zero at the stationary states, which violates the assumptions underlying the model.
As it will be shown below (see Sect. 6) through numerical simulations, these stationary states are either attractive or saddle points.
Notice that the taxation values reported in Fig. 3a, b are not thresholds levels but numerical examples consistent with the dynamic regimes shown in these figures. On the contrary, \(\tau =0.44\) is a threshold value under the chosen parametrisation such that the number of stationary states changes as taxation overcomes 0.44 (Fig. 3c, d). Similarly, under the chosen parametrization \(\tau =0.1371\) is the threshold level beyond which an additional attractive stationary state \(A^{l}\) emerges as we pass from Fig. 3a to b.
In the rest of the paper we will use the term “welfare analysis” that is commonly used in the literature although we mainly focus on the effects that FDI in land have on the revenues of local land owners. We are fully aware that welfare implies a much broader notion than revenues as it depends on many additional drivers beyond revenues including, among other things, the environmental quality of the local ecosystem. This consideration, however, may actually reinforce some of the main results emerging from the analysis. Indeed, if external investments turn out to be non-convenient for local land owners in the present model, they would be a fortiori welfare-reducing if pollution deriving from such investments was properly taken into account.
Notice that the revenues of L-agents at the stationary state in which the economy is specialized in the local sector (\(\Pi (A^{l})\)) are represented by an horizontal line (see Fig. 6a, b). Indeed, at the stationary state \(A^{l}\) there is no external sector in the economy, therefore the revenues of L-agents at \(A^{l}\) are invariant to an increase of the pollution tax or of the impact of the external sector on pollution.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees and seminar participants at the 5th IAERE Annual Conference (Italian Association of Environmental and Resource Economists; Rome: February 16–17, 2017), at International Workshop on the Economics of Climate Change and Sustainability (Rimini: April 28–29, 2017) and at the 23rd EAERE Annual Conference (European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists; Athens: June 28–July 1, 2017) for useful comments and suggestions on a preliminary version of this work. Special thanks to Angelo Antoci for fruitful discussions that helped improve the paper. The usual disclaimer applies.
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Borghesi, S., Giovannetti, G., Iannucci, G. et al. The Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investments in Land and Pollution Accumulation. Environ Resource Econ 72, 135–154 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-0263-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-0263-7
Keywords
- Foreign direct investments
- Land grabbing
- Two-sector model
- Environmental negative externalities
- Pollution taxation