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Predicting Property Crime Risk: an Application of Risk Terrain Modeling in Vancouver, Canada

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Abstract

Research on the spatial dimension of crime has developed significantly over the past few decades. An important aspect of this research is the visualization of this dimension and its underlying risk across space. However, most methods of such visualization, and subsequent analyses, only consider crime data or, perhaps, a population at risk in a crime rate. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) provides an alternative to such methods and can incorporate the entire environmental backcloth, data permitting. To date, the RTM literature has dominantly focused on violent crime in the United States. In this paper, we apply RTM to property crime victimization (residential burglary) in Vancouver, Canada. We are able to show that not only does RTM have applicability in a Canadian context but provides insight into nonviolent victimization.

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Notes

  1. Break and enter is the legal term for burglary in Canada. However, to remain consistent with the current literature on burglary, we use the term burglary for the purposes of this study.

  2. Despite a slight increase in 2015 of 4%, the number of break and enters have declined more than 40% since 2005. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2016001/article/14642/tbl/tbl05-eng.htm

  3. http://dc1.chass.utoronto.ca/cansimdim/

  4. Moreto et al. (2014) takes an important step and operationalizes the environmental backcloth. They argue that, often, this backcloth can be broken down into three main factors: physical, person–environment, and demographic (socioeconomic and cultural).

  5. This data was not available for the current study, as analysis relied on open-data sources.

  6. In Vancouver, only one drug market has been openly identified. This exists in the downtown east side. This area suffers from a number of social disorder issues and income instability that has caused it to be labeled “the poorest urban postal code in Canada.” Thus, for the current study, this location was not directly included as a variable but it is discussed in the results.

  7. Specifically, that open crime data available for Vancouver is not geocoded to an address but to the 100-block level (street block).

  8. http://data.vancouver.ca/datacatalogue/crime-data.htm

  9. The light-rail rapid transit stations (Skytrain stations) represent public transportation nodes in our analyses. These stations are commonly setting for bus loops (many bus lines begin and terminate at these stations.

  10. https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/vancouvers-housing-market-third-most-expensive-in-the-world-survey/article33702895/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

  11. https://cityhallwatch.wordpress.com/2013/08/26/eastside_population/

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  1. School of Criminology and Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada

    Martin A. Andresen & Tarah Hodgkinson

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  1. Martin A. Andresen
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Correspondence to Martin A. Andresen.

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Andresen, M.A., Hodgkinson, T. Predicting Property Crime Risk: an Application of Risk Terrain Modeling in Vancouver, Canada. Eur J Crim Policy Res 24, 373–392 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-018-9386-1

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