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The decadal variability of the tropical Indian Ocean SST–the South Asian High relation: CMIP5 model study

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Abstract

Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, present study investigates the decadal variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST)–the South Asian High (SAH) relation (hereafter TSR) as well as its responses to the global warming. Out of the 17 CMIP5 models, only one (GFDL-CM3) reproduces reasonably the influence of the TIO SST on the SAH. In the historical simulations of GFDL-CM3, the TSR features fluctuations modulated by the western Pacific SST and the Indian subcontinent precipitation. When the TIO warming is accompanied by warm western Pacific, the western Pacific SST-induced tropospheric warming propagates westwards, warms the troposphere surrounding the Indian Ocean, enhances SAH and leads to higher TSR; when accompanied by not so warmed western Pacific, the TSR is lower. While, if the TIO warming is accompanied by negative rainfall anomalies over the Indian subcontinent, the rainfall-induced upper-troposphere cyclone over the subtropical Asia weakens the response of the SAH and leads to lower TSR; if not accompanied by negative rainfall anomalies, the TSR is higher. The decadal variability of the TSR is not subject to the global warming. In RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios, the TSR is also not directly affected by global warming. The rainfall over the Indian subcontinent is still a factor modulating the TSR. While, the western Pacific SST is invalid in the influences of the TIO SST on the SAH.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.” Besides, the authors wish to thank Prof. Renguang Wu and the reviewer for the insightful comments that lead to a significant improvement to the manuscript. The study was supported by National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) 2012CB955604, Open Research Fund Program of Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology) Grant No. KLME1302 and National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41205050, 91337105 and 41275083).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    X. Qu

  2. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Ministry of Education, Nanjing, 210044, China

    X. Qu

  3. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P. O. Box 9804, Beijing, 100029, China

    G. Huang

  4. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    G. Huang

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Correspondence to G. Huang.

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Qu, X., Huang, G. The decadal variability of the tropical Indian Ocean SST–the South Asian High relation: CMIP5 model study. Clim Dyn 45, 273–289 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2285-3

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