Abstract
This paper presents a simple R&D-based growth model of the “technological divide,” in which learning-by-doing (investing) in R&D and a threshold level of technological knowledge jointly determine the pattern of economic growth. Specifically, the model generates differences in the growth pattern primarily by modifying the underlying parameters that govern the evolution of economy-wide technological competence or dynamic R&D productivity. The technological divide arises at the threshold level of technological knowledge, which is largely affected by the quality of socio-technological infrastructure. Government policies aimed at enhancing the quality of socio-technological infrastructure can help countries escape from the “technology divide” trap by lowering the knowledge threshold. While the model preserves the spirit of the R&D-based endogenous growth model in the sense of its policy effects and the endogenous evolution of technological competence, the model does not need to reach the scale effect directly, where an increase in the size of an economy generates more rapid growth.
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Notes
Sachs and Warner (1995a) found empirical evidence of divergent growth patterns between two groups of countries classified by the criteria of property rights and trade openness.
Using a large sample of 149 economies over the period 1970–2000, Castellacci (2008) provides empirical evidence for convergence clubs and their growth behavior.
Sachs pointed out that “With the end of the cold war, the old ideological divide is over. Virtually all nations proclaim allegiance to global markets. But, a more intractable division is taking hold, this time based on technology.... Many of the technologically-excluded regions, especially in the tropics, are caught in a poverty trap.... But we now know that technology is less likely to converge than capital.... As with nuclear reactions, a critical mass of ideas and technology is needed first.”
The externality models typically predict a transitory negative growth for the poor countries but a transitory positive growth for the poorest countries. See Table III in Summers and Heston (1991).
Among the 119 countries with full information on the growth rate of GDP per capita during the period, the number of countries that suffered negative growth was 14 for the period 1960–1973, 23 for the period 1973–1980, and 63 for the period 1980–1988. A more comprehensive presentation of divergence in growth performance can be found in Maddison (2001).
Feyrer (2003) attributes the emergence of twin peaks in the distribution of world income to diverging rates of total factor productivity growth rather than diverging levels of physical capital or human capita accumulation, which does not support the models of poverty traps based on multiple equilibria in physical capital or human capital accumulation. Also see Howitt and Mayer-Foulkes (2005, p. 7).
Recently, Howitt and Mayer-Foulkes (2005) proposed a Schumpeterian model of growth divergence focusing on the possibility of ever weakening potential for technology transfer, in which technologically backward countries face increasingly eroding absorptive capacity (due to increasingly ineffective technology investments) for tapping into global technology frontier, as the world’s technological frontier advances.
We do not model the economy as consisting of multiple sectors such as the research and various goods sectors, since nowadays most R&D and production are simultaneously performed by profit-seeking firms.
Notice below that, unlike previous endogenous growth models, such as the AK model, we do not invoke external economies, knowledge spillovers, or the diminishing-returns-offsetting variety argument, which have been employed in existing endogenous growth models as the driving force behind sustained growth. For a summary, see Grossman and Helpman (1994).
Some endogenous growth models emphasize the number of researchers as the ultimate source of long-run growth, which is subject to policy manipulation (e.g., Romer 1990; Grossman and Helpman 1991; Aghion and Howitt 1992; Young 1998), while “semi-endogenous” growth models emphasize parameters that are typically viewed as invariant to policy manipulation such as the rate of population growth (e.g., Jones 1995a, b, 1999; Li 2000).
As modeled below, we consider the shift of the mode of innovation from the individual to the corporation, and incorporate the fact that R&D is conducted by profit-maximizing firms as a systematic component of production (e.g., Dosi 1988; Suarez-Villa 1990). However, we do not consider separately the dynamics of physical capital, which does not qualitatively affect the implications of the following analysis.
Since we do not specify the quality production function for generality and simplicity, the role played by R&D uncertainty is not investigated in detail.
For the definition of technological opportunity and the effect of differences in technological opportunity on R&D, see, among many others, Scherer (1965), Phillips (1966), Jaffe (1986), Dosi (1988), and Klevorick et al. (1995). Notably, Klevorick et al. (1995) emphasized three sources of new contributions to an industry’s pool of technological opportunities—the advancement of scientific understanding or knowledge, technological advances originating outside the industry, and positive feedback from the industry’s technological advances in one period that open up new technological opportunities for the next.
For absorptive capacity, see Cohen and Levinthal (1989).
The algebra is given in the Appendix.
See the Appendix for the derivation. We assume that all firms in the economy face the same consumer preferences (i.e., δ i = δ).
See the Appendix for the derivation.
Note that Σ k s k = 1, where k = 1, 2, 3, ..., Z. One may simply interpret Eq. 5 as signifying that industries bid for the production of a share of the potential aggregate output of the economy represented by Eq. 1 and that the share is primarily determined by each industry’s technological competence.
On the concept of national innovative capacity and international differences in innovative capacity or R&D productivity, see Stern et al. (2000). The concept of an economy’s technological competence is similar to Abramovitz’s (1986) idea of social capability. He emphasizes the importance of the endogenous enlargement of social capabilities in realizing a country’s potential for advancements in productivity.
A dot over a variable denotes differentiation with respect to time. For simplicity, we simply let ψS E = ψY, assuming a common price index or deflator of unity.
One might think of g as the degree of aggregate externality on technological competence from the stock of economy-wide technological knowledge (in per worker terms). It is worth noting that, given the fierce debate (e.g., Jones 1995a, b; Porter and Stern 2000) on the magnitude of the parameters of the ideas-production function first employed in the Romer model (1990), we bypass the empirical issue by modeling in Eq. 10 that prior knowledge or R&D experience affects the productivity of future R&D, rather than directly affecting the flow of new technological knowledge.
Similarly, Suarez-Villa (1990) uses the concept of experiential learning, in that some new, useful knowledge may be generated in every trial of R&D effort. One can also suggest other factors influencing the parameter g: R&D productivity, for example, may rise as a byproduct of production (i.e., manufacturing) experience (e.g., Arrow 1962).
For the sources of technological opportunities, see Klevorick et al. (1995). As discussed later, it is worth noting that g < 0 does not qualitatively change the predictions of the model developed in this paper.
The concept of socio-technological infrastructure is similar to Hall and Jones’ (1999) social infrastructure. They define it as the institutions and government policies that determine the economic environment. Abramovitz (1994) lists specific factors constituting the notions of technological congruence and social capability, which are closely related to the concept of socio-technological infrastructure employed in this paper. On the importance of social infrastructure or innovation-promoting institutions in explaining cross-country growth differences, see Jones (2001), Hall and Jones (1999), Sachs and Warner (1995b), Stern (1991), and Morris and Adelman (1983), among others.
Hence, an economic regime can be defined as a particular combination of the extent of learning-by-doing in R&D (or the cumulativeness of technology), the contribution of technological knowledge to the production of output, and the sensitivity of consumers’ quality preference, relative to price, to income levels.
For example, policies that encourage foreign trade and foreign direct investment tend to increase an economy’s capability for learning-by-doing in R&D and thus its level of technological competence. In addition, outward-oriented development strategies may also put some pressure on domestic firms to invest more in R&D, so that they will be able to satisfy foreign consumers who tend to be more quality-sensitive than domestic consumers. For evidence of outstanding growth performance for outward-oriented economies, see Dollar (1992).
This eventually diminishing contribution of per capita knowledge accumulation to economy-wide technological competence prevents the economy from growing boundlessly. One might think of the highest level of ϖ at the moderate range of per capita technological knowledge as representing the advantage of technological backwardness, arising from the increasing pool of potential technological opportunities that can be absorbed.
In reality, however, countries face different types and levels of barriers to technology diffusion. For various kinds of barriers to technology diffusion, see among others Parente and Prescott (1994), Grossman and Helpman (1991, Ch. 11), Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1997), Basu and Weil (1998), and Acemoglu and Zilibotti (2001).
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The author thanks Editor Luigi Orsenigo and two anonymous reviewers for their invaluable and constructive comments and suggestions.
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Appendix
Appendix
Derivation of Eq. 3
The first-order conditions for firm i with respect to R&D expenditure (r) and price (p) are respectively as follows:
where m p is the marginal market share effect of price, m r is the marginal market share effect of R&D expenditure, and c r is the marginal production-cost effect of (product) R&D. Applying the price elasticity of market share \((\varepsilon^{pm}=-(p/m)m_{p})\) to Eq. 15 yields (p − c)/p = 1/ε pm. Similarly, by defining (r/m)m r as the R&D elasticity of market share (ε rm) and applying it to Eq. 16, we get r = (1/Φ)(p − c) mQ ε rm, where Φ denotes the total marginal cost of R&D (i.e., Φ = 1 + mQc r ). Here, for simplicity, we assume that the production-cost effect of product R&D is absent (c r = 0 and thus Φ = 1). Then, combining these results yields a preliminary version of firm i’s profit-maximizing R&D expenditure and R&D intensity:
where S denotes firm sales (S = pmQ).
From the definitions of the elasticities of market share with respect to R&D expenditure and price, we get \(\varepsilon^{rm} = (r/m)m_{r} = (r/m)m_{U}U_{T}T_{r}\) and \(\varepsilon^{pm}=-(p/m)m_{p} = -(p/m)m_{U}U_{p}\). Using the elasticity of market share with respect to consumer utility, \(\varepsilon^{Um} = (U/m)m_{U}\), the quality elasticity of consumer utility, \(\delta^{T} = (T/U)U_{T}\), the price elasticity of consumer utility, \(\delta^{P}=-(p/U)U_{p}\), and technological competence, σ = (r/T)T r , the elasticities of market share with respect to R&D expenditure and price can be \(\varepsilon^{rm} = (r/m)m_{r} = (r/m)m_{U}U_{T}T_{r} = \varepsilon^{Um} \delta^{T} \sigma\) and \(\varepsilon^{pm}=-(p/m)m_{p}=-(p/m)m_{U}U_{p}= \varepsilon^{Um} \delta^{p}\). Incorporating these results into Eq. 17 yields Eq. 3.
Derivation of Eq. 4
From Eq. 3, we get \(\sum\nolimits_{i=1}^N {r_i} =\delta \sum\nolimits_{i=1}^N {(\sigma _i S_i )}\). Dividing both sides by industry sales, \(\sum\nolimits_{i=1}^N {S_i}\), yields Eq. 4. Note that \({\sum\nolimits_{i=1}^N {(\sigma _i S_i )} } \big/{\sum\nolimits_{i=1}^N {S_i}}=\sum\nolimits_{i=1}^N {(\sigma _i s_i)}\), where \(s_i ={S_i} \big/{\sum\nolimits_{i=1}^N {S_i}}\).
Derivation of Eq. 5
From the assumption that each industry has its own level of technological competence (i.e., all firms in each industry have the same level of technological competence and thus σ i = σ), Eq. 4 can be reduced to
Here, note that the sum of all the market shares is unity (i.e., Σ i s i = 1, i = 1, 2, 3, ..., N). From Eq. 18, industry R&D expenditure is r I = δσ δ I. Then, the R&D outlay at the economy level is obtained by summing up industry R&D expenditures:
By dividing both sides of Eq. 19 by the aggregate output for the economy \((S^E\equiv \sum\nolimits_k {S_k} ,\,k=1,2,3,...,Z)\), we get the R&D intensity for the economy:
where \(s_{k}=S_{k}/S^{E}\). Note that Eq. 20 is the same as Eq. 5.
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Lee, CY. Learning-by-doing in R&D, knowledge threshold, and technological divide. J Evol Econ 22, 109–132 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-010-0202-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-010-0202-4
Keywords
- Learning-by-doing in R&D
- Technological divide
- Technological competence
- Knowledge threshold
- Economic growth