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Geodetic Strain Observations and Return Period of the Strongest Earthquakes of a Given Seismic Source Zone

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Abstract

We present the basis for a method for estimating the return period of large and medium earthquakes that is independent of current deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The two standard techniques of seismic hazard assessment—probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA)—suffer from limited knowledge of seismic prehistory. A further weakness of PSHA is its requirement of homogeneous seismic activity within a seismic zone. Moreover, PSHA and DSHA were developed for seismically active areas and, thus, cannot reliably be used in areas of medium and low activity. In this paper we propose the combined use of geodetic strain rate data and the seismic moment data set determined for past seismic events. This combination represents a new and independent approach to estimation of future seismic activity. Using a modified version of Kostrov’s (Phys Solid Earth 1:23–40, 1974) equation and the catalogue of seismic moments, the minimum return period of the strongest earthquakes of a source area is estimated.

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Acknowledgments

The author thanks the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions which improved this work. Nico Sneeuw is thanked for helping to develop the manuscript. This paper was completed with the use of possibilities provided by the bilateral project DFG-HAS “Mathematical and observational study of the time dependent geodetic and geophysical processes” (in Germany 436 UNG 113, in Hungary DFG/189) and the work carried out was also supported by the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund OTKA (Project: K60394).

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  1. Seismological Observatory, Geodetic and Geophysical Research Institute, Meredek u. 18, Budapest, 1112, Hungary

    P. Varga

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Varga, P. Geodetic Strain Observations and Return Period of the Strongest Earthquakes of a Given Seismic Source Zone. Pure Appl. Geophys. 168, 289–296 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0112-2

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