Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

, Volume 145, Issue 3, pp 269–291 | Cite as

The up-coming crisis and the banking sector in the Baltic States

  • Mejra Festić
  • Sebastijan Repina
  • Alenka Kavkler
Open Access


F47 G15 G21 


cyclicality non-performing loans systemic risk asset quality 


  1. Ådahl, Martin (2006), “Banking in the Baltics – The Development of the Banking Systems of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania since Independence: The Internationalization of Baltic banking 1998–2002”, Vienna, Österreichische National Bank,, 3 September 2006.
  2. Babouček, Ivan, and Martin Jančar (2005), “A VAR Analysis of the Effects to Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio of the Czech Banking Sector”, working paper series no. 1, Prague, the Czech National Bank.Google Scholar
  3. BACA (2008), “Analysis and research in the CEE countries”,, 14 February 2007.
  4. Beck, Nathaniel, and N. Jonathan Katz (1995), “What to Do (and not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data”, American Political Science Review 89 (3), pp. 634–647.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Beck, Nathaniel, and N. Jonathan Katz (2004), “Random Coefficient Models for Time-Series-Cross-Section Data”, Working Papers, no. 1205, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.Google Scholar
  6. Berglöf, Erik, and Gerard Roland (1995), Bank Restructuring and Soft Budget Constraints in Financial Transition”, in: CEPR, Discussion Papers no. 1250, London, CEPR,, 13 April 2006.
  7. Bole, Velimir (2007), “Basel II for the Bank of Slovenia and the A-Banka”, project for the Bank of Slovenia, Introduction of Basel II in Slovenian Banks, aplicative model for Slovenian commercial banks, Ljubljana, EIPF.Google Scholar
  8. Borio, Claudio, Craig Furfine and Philip Lowe (2001), “Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options”, In Marrying the Macro and Micro-Prudential Dimension of Financial Stability, March, no. 1, pp. 24–31, Bank for International Settlements, http.//, 23 December 2007.
  9. Brandmeier, Michael (2006), “Reasons for real appreciation in Central Europe”, in: Discussion Paper no. 55, May, pp. 396–400, Centre for Globalisation and Europeanization of the Economy,, 13 June 2006.
  10. Breuss, Fritz (2003), “Balassa-Samuelson Effect in CEEC. Are There Obstacles for Joining the EMU?”, in: Working Papers, no. 52, May, Vienna, IEF, Institute Vienna,, 13 June 2006.
  11. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal (2005), Lending booms in the New Member States, Will Euro adoption matter?”, in: Working Paper no. 543, December, Frankfurt, ECB,, 15 May 2006.
  12. Calvo, A. Guillermo, and Enrique Mendoza (2000), “Contagion, Globalization and the Volatility of Capital Flows”, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies, S. Edwards (ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 12–43.Google Scholar
  13. Cândida Ferreira (2009), Bank Sector Performances, Economic Growth and European Integration, Lisboa, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão da Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, no. 2., 13 January 2009.
  14. Chmielewski, Tomasz (2003), “Is the Balassa-Samuelson Effect a Serious Obstacle for an Accession Country?”, in: INFER Studies, Alpen, Dagmar, and Hendrik Luchtmeier (eds), vol. 8, pp. 1–18, Berlin, VWF.Google Scholar
  15. Čihák, Martin, Jaroslav Heřmánek and Michal Hlaváček (2007), “New Approaches to the Stress Testing of the Czech Banking Sector”, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, Finance a úvěr 10 (2), pp. 41–59.Google Scholar
  16. Davidson, Russell, and G. James MacKinnon (1993), Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, Oxford Univeristy Press.Google Scholar
  17. D’Avack, Francesco, and Sandrine Levasseur (2007), The Determinants of Capital Buffers in CEECs, Paris, OFCE, no. 28, October. Available: [], (15.1.2009).
  18. Dickey, A. David, and Wayne A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, vol. 74 (June), pp. 427–431.Google Scholar
  19. ECB (2006) “Acceding Economies Macro Environment and Banking Sector”, in: Occasional Paper, 48 (July), pp. 11–31, Frankfurt, European Central Bank,[1].pdf, 9 September 2006.
  20. Edwards, Sebastian (2001), “Exchange Rate Regime, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention”, NBER and University of California, Los Angeles,, 24 December 2006.
  21. Eesti Pank (2006), “Banking Sector Stability and Risks”, Financial Stability Review, May, pp. 44–55, Estonian Central Bank;, 3 September 2006.
  22. Égert, Balázs, Peter Backé and Tina Žumer (2006), “Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: the New (Over-) Shooting Stars?”, ECB working papers, no. 167, October, Frankfurt, ECB.Google Scholar
  23. Esaka, Taro (2003), “Panel Unit Root Tests of Purchasing Power Parity between Japanese Cities, 1960–1998: Disaggregated Price Data”, Japan and the World Economy 15 (2), pp. 233–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Havlik, Peter (2003), “EU Enlargement: Implications for Growth and Competitiveness”, in a study commissioned by the Austrian Federal Ministry for Economy and Labour, August, Vienna, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.Google Scholar
  25. Hoggarth, Glenn, Andrew Logan and Lea Zicchino (2005), “Macro stress tests of UK banks”, BIS papers, no. 22, Basel, Bank for International Settlements.Google Scholar
  26. Hsiao, Cheng (2003), Analysis of Panel Data, Kindle edition, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  27. IMF (2007), “Global Financial Stability Report – Statistical Appendix”, Washington, IMF,, 19 August 2006.
  28. IMF (2008), “Compilation Guide to Financial Soundness Indicators, Provisioning and Classification Rules”,, 19 June 2008.
  29. Iwaisako, Tokuo (2004), “Stock Index Autocorrelation and Cross-Autocorrelations of Size-Sorted Portfolios in the Japanese Market”, Journal of Financial Economics 3, pp. 281–318.Google Scholar
  30. Jakubík, Peter (2007), “Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk”, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, Finance a úvěr, 10 (1), pp. 166–133.Google Scholar
  31. Jakubík, Peter (2007a), “Credit risk and stress testing of the Czech banking sector”, Economic Research and Financial Stability Department, Prague, Czech National Bank.Google Scholar
  32. Jappelli, Tulio, and Marco Pagano (1994), “Savings, Growth and Liquidity Constraints”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 109 (1) February, pp. 93–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Kaminsky, Graciela, and M. Carmen Reinhart (1999), “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems”, American Economic Review, 89 (June), pp. 473–500.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. KBC AM. (2007), “Baltic States: Caught between a Rock and a Hard Place”, Economic Research Notes, 5 (6), annex 11.Google Scholar
  35. KBC AM. (2008), “Credit growth and housing in Central Europe”,, 18 June 2008).
  36. Kiss, Gergely, Márton Nagy and Bálasz Vonnak (2006), “Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Trend, Cycle or Boom?”, Magya Nemzeti Bank, Working Papers no. 2006/10.Google Scholar
  37. Koivu, Tuuli (2002), “Banking and Finance in the Baltic Countries”, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition, BOFIT, no. 11.Google Scholar
  38. Krzak, Maciej (1997), “Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – from Plan to Market – Selected Issues”, Österreichische Nationalbank: Focus on Transition, no. 2., 16 June 2008.
  39. Lardy, R. Nicholas (1999), “When will China’s Financial System meet China’s Needs?”, in: Paper prepared for Conference on Policy Reform in China, Center for Research on Economic Development and Policy Reform, CA, November, Stanford, University of Stanford,, 13 May 2007.
  40. Maddala, G. S., and Wanhong Hu (1996), “The pooling problem”, In: The econometrics of panel data, ed. L. M´aty´as and P. Sevestre, pp. 307–322, Dordrecht, Kluwer Academic.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Männasoo, Kadri (2005), “Investigating the Early Signals of Banking Vulnerability in Central and East European Emerging Markets”, Bank of Estonia: December, working papers series., 13 January 2007.
  42. Moffatt, Peter, and Evens Salies (2003), “A Note of the Modelling of Hyper-Inflation”, City University Discussion Paper, no. 3, London, City University,, 13 August 2007.
  43. Mörttinen, Lenna, Paolo Poloni, Patrick Sandras and Jukka Vesala (2005), “Analysing Banking Sector Conditions: How to Use Macro-Prudential Indicators”, ECB, occasional paper, April, no. 26.Google Scholar
  44. Quagliariello, Mario (2003), “Macroeconomics Indicators Useful in Predicting Bank Loan Quality? Evidence from Italy”, Rome, Bank of Italy, 02/mpa_en.pdf, 15 April 2006.
  45. Schinasi, J. Garry (2005), Preserving Financial Stability, Washington, International Monetary Fund, economic issues, no. 36.Google Scholar
  46. Sirtaine, Sophie, and Ilias kamnelos (2007), “Credit Expansion in Emerging Europe: A Cause for Concern?”, Economic Report World Bank, no. 38499.Google Scholar
  47. Sopanha, Sa (2006), “Capital Markets and Credit Boom in Emerging Market Economies”, Financial Stability Review no. 9. Paris, Banque de France.Google Scholar
  48. Stavrakeva, Vania (2006), “Rapid Credit Growth Rates in Transitional Economies with an Emphasis on Bulgaria”, ECO 490,, 15 August 2008.
  49. Stock, James, and Mark Watson (2003), Introduction to Econometrics, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  50. Tang, Helena, Edda Zoli and Irina Klytchnikova (2000), Banking Crises in Transition Economies: Fiscal Costs and Related Issues, no. 2484,, 19 June 2008.
  51. Temple, Jonathan (1999), “The New Growth Evidence”, Journal of Economic Literature, 37 (1), pp. 112–156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Western, Bruce (1998), “Causal Heterogeneity in Comparative Research: A Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling Approach”, American Journal of Political Science, 42 (4), pp. 1233–1259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Wooldridge, John (20 02), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, Cambridge: The MIT Press.Google Scholar
  54. Wu, Deming (2004), Capital Accumulation and the Balassa-Samuelson Effects: A New Perspective, Stanford University, Department of Economics,, 13 June 2008.

Copyright information

© Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mejra Festić
    • 1
    • 2
  • Sebastijan Repina
    • 2
  • Alenka Kavkler
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.EPF — Faculty of Economics and BusinessUniversity of MariborMariborSlovenia
  2. 2.EIPF — Economic InstituteLjubljanaSlovenia

Personalised recommendations