Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science

, Volume 16, Issue 3–4, pp 95–103 | Cite as

A framework for the combination of forecasts

  • Benito E. Flores
  • Edna M. White
Special Section


A framework for the systematic study of the combination of sales and market forecasts is proposed based on the types of forecasts to be combined and the methods used to combine them. A detailed survey of the literature is given in terms of the developed framework and general conclusions about the combination of forecasts area are developed. Some future needs for research are also discussed.


Simple Average Forecast Method Exponential Smoothing Forecast Error Variance Individual Forecast 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Adams, A. J. 1978. “Modelling and Forecasting Seasonal Time Series of Product Sales Across Territories: A Comparative Study.” Ph.D. Thesis. The University of Iowa.Google Scholar
  2. Armstrong, J. Scott. 1984. “Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of Research.”Interfaces 14, 6 (Nov–Dec): 52–66.Google Scholar
  3. —. 1986. “The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960–1984.”Interfaces 16, 1 (Jan–Feb): 89–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Ashton, A.H. and R.H. Ashton. 1985. “Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results.”Management Science 31, 12 (Dec): 1499–1508.Google Scholar
  5. Bates, J. M. and C. W. J. Granger. 1969. “The Combination of Forecasts.”Operational Research Quarterly 20: 451–468.Google Scholar
  6. Bessler, D. and P. Chamberlain. 1987. “On Bayesian Composite Forecasting.”Omega 15, 1: 43–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bonini, C. and J. Freeland. 1979. “Forecasting by Smoothed Regression: Development and Application to Predicting Customer Utility Bills.” InTIMS Studies in the Management Sciences. Eds. S. Makridakis and S. Wheelwright. 12: 279–296.Google Scholar
  8. Bopp, Anthony E. 1985. “On Combining Forecasts: Some Extensions and Results.”Management Science 31, 12 (December): 1492–1498.Google Scholar
  9. Bordley, R.F. 1982. “The Combination of Forecasts: A Bayesian Approach.”Journal of the Operational Research Society 33, 2: 171–174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bunn, D.W. 1975. “A Bayesian Approach to the Linear Combination of Forecasts.”Operational Research Quarterly 26, 2:325–329.Google Scholar
  11. — 1978.The Synthesis of Forecasting Models in Decision Analysis. Basel: Birkhauser.Google Scholar
  12. — 1981. “Two Methodologies for the Linear Combination of Forecasts.”Journal of the Operational Research Society 32: 213–222.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. — and I. Topping. 1984. “Efficiency of the Independence Assumption in the Combination of Forecasts.”Operations Research Letters 3, 4 (October): 173–178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. — 1985. “Statistical Efficiency in the Linear Combination of Forecasts.”International Journal of Forecasting 1: 151–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Chunglo, F. J. 1985. “Developing Sales Forecasting—Master Scheduling Software.”Production and Inventory Management Review 5, 2: 56–60.Google Scholar
  16. Clemen, R. and R. Winkler. 1986. “Combining Economic Forecasts.”Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4, 1 (January):39–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Cook, T., P. Falchi and R. Mariano. 1984. “An Urban Allocation Model Combining Time Series and Analytical Hierarchical Methods.”Management Science 30, 2 (February): 198–208.Google Scholar
  18. Dalrymple, D. 1978. “Using Box-Jenkins Techniques in Sales Forecasting.”Journal of Business Research: 133–145.Google Scholar
  19. — and L. Parsons. 1983.Marketing Management: Strategy and Cases. New York: J. Wiley & Sons, Inc.Google Scholar
  20. Dickinson, J. 1973. “Some Statistical Results in the Combination of Forecasts.”Operational Research Quarterly 20, 24: 253–60.Google Scholar
  21. — 1975. “Some Comments on the Combinations of Forecasts.”Operational Research Quarterly 26, 1: 205–210.Google Scholar
  22. Figlewski, S. and T. Urich. 1983. “Optimal Agrregation of Money Supply Forecasts: Accuracy, Profitability and Market Efficiency.”Journal of Finance 28: 695–710.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Fischer, G. 1981. “When Oracles Fail: A Comparison of Four Procedures for Aggregating Subjective Probability Forecasts.”Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 28: 96–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Flores, B. and E. White. 1989. “Subjective vs Objective Combining of Forecasts: An Experiment.”Journal of Forecasting (to appear).Google Scholar
  25. Gardner, E. S. and E. McKenzie. 1985. “Forecasting Trends in Time Series.”Management Science 31, 10: 1237–1246.Google Scholar
  26. Gardner, E. Comments to S. Armstrong paper. In Armstrong, J. Scott, 1986. “The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960–1984.”Interfaces 16, 1 (Jan–Feb): 89–109.Google Scholar
  27. Gold, J. 1979. “Guesswork and Statistics in Sales Forecasting.”Marketing (London) (November): 88–91.Google Scholar
  28. Goodman, S. 1981. “Technical Analysis Still Beats Econometrics.”Euromoney (August): 48–59.Google Scholar
  29. Granger, C. and P. Newbold. 1977.Forecasting Economic Time Series. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  30. — and R. Ramanathan. 1984. “Improved Methods of Combining Forecasts.”Journal of Forecasting 3, 2: 197–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Gregg, D. 1980. “Business Forecasting: The Good News and the Bad.”Omega 8 3: 361–374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Kang, H. 1986. “Unstable Weights in the Combination of Forecasts.”Management Science 32, 6 (June): 683–695.Google Scholar
  33. Kotler, P. 1980.Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, and Control. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.Google Scholar
  34. Lawrence, M., R. Edmundson, and M. O’Connor. 1986. “The Accuracy of Combining Judgmental and Statistical Forecasts.”Management Science 32, 2 (December):1521–1532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Mabert, V. 1978. “Forecast Modification Based Upon Residual Analysis: A Case Study of Check Volume Estimation.”Decision Sciences 9, 2: 285–296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Mahmouud, E. 1982. “Short Term Forecasting: Matching Techniques to Tasks. An integrated Framework and Empirical Investigation,” Ph.D. Thesis. State University of New York at Buffalo, 1982.Google Scholar
  37. — 1984. “Accuracy in Forecasting: A Survey.”Journal of Forecasting 3, 2:139–159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Makridakis, S. et al. 1982. “The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition.”Journal of Forecasting 1, 2: 111–153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. — and R. Winkler. 1983. “Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results.”Management Science 29, 9: 987–996.Google Scholar
  40. Moriarty, M. and A. Adams. 1984. “Management Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency.”Journal of Marketing Research 21 (August): 239–250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Newbold, P. and C. W. J. Granger. 1974. “Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts.”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 137: 131–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Pindyck, R. and D. Rubinfeld. 1976.Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  43. Reeves, G. and K. Lawrence. 1982. “Combining Multiple Forecasts Given Multiple Objectives.”Journal of Forecasting 1, 3: 271–279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Reinmuth, J. and M. Geurts. 1979. “A Multideterministic Approach to Forecasting.” InTIMS Studies in the Management Sciences. Eds. S. Makridakis and S. Wheelwright. 12:203–211.Google Scholar
  45. Winkler, R. and S. Makridakis 1983. “The Combination of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results.”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Ser. A 146: 150–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Zarnowitz, V. 1984. “The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys.”Journal of Forecasting 3: 10–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Academy of Marketing Science 1988

Authors and Affiliations

  • Benito E. Flores
    • 1
  • Edna M. White
    • 2
  1. 1.Texas A & M UniversityCollege StationUSA
  2. 2.Bryant CollegeBryantUSA

Personalised recommendations