Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Conjuring the Ghosts of Missing Children: A Monte Carlo Simulation of Reproductive Restraint in Tokugawa Japan

  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

This article quantifies the frequency of infanticide and abortion in one region of Japan by comparing observed fertility in a sample of 4.9 million person-years (1660–1872) with a Monte Carlo simulation of how many conceptions and births that population should have experienced. The simulation uses empirical values for the determinants of fertility from Eastern Japan itself as well as the best available studies of comparable populations. This procedure reveals that in several decades of the eighteenth century, at least 40 % of pregnancies must have ended in either an induced abortion or an infanticide. In addition, the simulation results imply a rapid decline in the incidence of infanticide and abortion during the nineteenth century, when in a reverse fertility transition, this premodern family-planning regime gave way to a new age of large families.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. See Sommer’s (2010) revision of Bray (1997) and Lee and Wang (1999).

  2. The following studies have detected TFRs or TMFRs below 3: Hayami and Okada (2005:206); Ishihara (1988:115); Kitō (1986); Ritsumeikan Daigaku Takagi Zemi (1985, 1986, 1988); Takahashi (2005:121); Tsuya (2001:232). For surveys of fertility results from longitudinal village studies throughout Tokugawa Japan, see Tomobe (1991:41) and Drixler (2013:35–36). These figures do not include children who were born and died in the same interval between two annual registers, but such early deaths cannot often have exceeded one-fifth of the registered children. Several types of sources allow us to study the infant mortality rate at the time, including the records of pregnancy surveillance and child welfare systems. All agree that infant mortality from sickness and accidents rarely averaged more than 20 % over long time spans. For partial summaries and a discussion of methodological issues, see Drixler (2008:467–469; 2013:107–108, 250–252) and Kitō (1976).

  3. The life tables derive from surveillance documents expressly designed to track the fate of children from pregnancy to about 1 year of age, as well as from longitudinal analyses of population registers. Because the latter often did not register children in their first months of life, I adjusted them for known regularities in the distribution of infant deaths over the first months of life in breast-feeding populations (Drixler 2008:467–469; Drixler 2013:250–251). This reconstruction distinguishes between normal years and two levels of mortality crises. Weighted by person-years of the reconstruction, life expectancy at birth (excluding the victims of infanticide) averaged 37 years.

  4. Although the mortality assumptions for this reconstruction have a broad empirical foundation, it may be reassuring that even if we raise by one-half the probabilities of dying at all ages (thereby reducing life expectancy at birth from 36.9 years to an implausibly low 26 years), the estimates for eighteenth-century TFRs rise by less than 0.7 children (see Drixler 2013:251).

  5. I thank Jordan Hamzawi for helping me coin this term.

  6. I did not back-project patterns of marriage and labor migration. Instead, I calculated for the present moment of each population register and then averaged them for each decade.

  7. None of the numerous longitudinal village studies in Japan’s Deep East has demonstrated such a change. Given that IMRs in eighteenth century village studies are often somewhat lower than in the late nineteenth-century vital statistics for the same areas, any large improvement in survival beyond the abatement of infanticide is not likely. Future research may give us better information about the trends in infant mortality; for the time being, it seems likely that the level and patterns remained stable, fluctuating only between normal and crisis years.

  8. I derive this range and the observations of the factors influencing the age at menarche from the following studies and review articles: Backman (1948:326–327); Bojlén and Bentzon (1968); Eveleth and Tanner (1976:213–219); Malik and Hauspie (1986:546); Pawson (1976:94–95); Satwanti et al. (1983); Thomas et al. (2001:274–276); Tomobe (2007:60–64); Wood (1994:418–419); Wyshak and Frisch (1982:1033); Zhongguo Xuesheng Tizhi Jiankang Yanjiuzu (1987:1691).

  9. The Chimbu, Bundi, Lumi, and Gainj people in Papua New Guinea; Rwandans; and the Sherpas of Nepal. Even some populations living at high altitudes have mean ages at menarche between 14 and 17 years. See Malik and Hauspie (1986:546). The sole example of a lowland population in this high range appears to be an 1882 small-n German study, cited in Backman (1948:431), whose methodology may not have been consistent with the modern studies.

  10. Some of the early studies of the age of menarche suffer from serious methodological issues, all of which lead to overestimates of the age at menarche (Bojlén and Bentzon 1968:74). After adding one-half year to correct for one of these, the conflation of completed years and nth year, Backman (1948) reported mean ages above 17 for some nineteenth-century Scandinavian studies, but this procedure may actually exaggerate rather than mitigate the error.

  11. By the 1980s, Japan’s mean age at menarche was around 12.5 years (Tomobe 2007:60).

  12. In addition to sexually transmitted diseases, smallpox has been cited as a cause of male infertility, but this was not borne out by a study of Dutch smallpox survivors (Rutten 1993).

  13. If one-half of women attempted to raise two children, and the other one-half raised three children, 40 % infant and child mortality would produce a rate of childlessness of about 11 % among women at the end of their childbearing years.

  14. Estimating sterility is beset with methodological problems. See Larsen (1994).

  15. Coital frequencies typically decline with the woman’s age and the duration of marriage, but the effects vary greatly between different populations. This simulation folds the duration effect into the age pattern of coital frequency. This is because the Tōgoku data set does not permit confident estimates for the frequency of divorce and remarriage, supplying only the proportions married at each age. Because much of the duration effect is parallel to the effect of the wife’s age, any error arising from this simplification is minor compared with the general uncertainty surrounding coital frequencies.

  16. See upcoming Figs. 5 and 9 for a comparison of how different coital frequency assumptions affect the simulation results.

  17. In each gestational month, I calculated how many extra fetal losses the 1930 stillbirth figures for Miyagi and Yamagata prefectures imply at each age. I then distributed these extra fetal deaths across the days of the pregnancy based on their 1930 gestational distribution.

  18. On methodological problems with many other studies, see Ford and Kim (1987) and Potter and Kobrin (1981:86).

  19. The simulation model, specified in Python, takes about 0.24 seconds to simulate one life on an Intel Core i7-2860QM CPU @ 2.50GHz. At 201,000,000 realizations, the results reported in this article would have taken about 560 days to generate on one CPU.

  20. Wrigley et al. (1997:478–479) analyzed the effect of infant deaths on birth intervals, which implied that women in their parishes breast-fed their children extensively.

  21. In 1901, rural Kanagawa still had an implausibly high legitimate stillbirth rate of 9 %, suggesting that a large percentage of pregnancies ended in a late-term abortion or infanticide.

  22. Because Shimizu and Miyai (1968) reported no distributions within age groups, this estimate assumes the same distribution as in Taiwan 1986 (Sun et al. 2002), but with the daily probabilities multiplied by 1.68, the average ratio of Taiwanese and Northeastern Japanese coital frequencies in each age group.

  23. For sources, see Drixler (2013:17, 120-123).

References

  • Abeel, D. (1843). Notices of infanticide collected from the people of Fukien. Chinese Repository, 12, 540–542.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashi, T. (1754 / 1966). Ashi Tōzan jōsho [Ashi Tōzan’s memorial]. In S. Takimoto (Ed.), Nihon keizai taiten (Vol. 11). Tokyo, Japan: Meiji Bunken.

  • Avery, C., St. Clair, T., Levin, M., & Hill, K. (2013). The “own children” fertility estimation procedure: A reappraisal. Population Studies, 67, 171–183.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Backman, G. (1948). Die beschleunigte Entwicklung der Jugend: Verfrühte Menarche, verspätete Menopause, verlängerte Lebensdauer [The accelerated development of youth]. Acta Anatomica, 4, 421–480.

  • Barrett, J. C., & Marshall, J. (1969). The risk of conception on different days of the menstrual cycle. Population Studies, 23, 455–461.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson, T., & Dribe, M. (2006). Deliberate control in a natural fertility population: Southern Sweden, 1766–1864. Demography, 43, 727–746.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bergsjø, P., Denman, D. W., Hoffman, H. J., & Meirik, O. (1990). Duration of human singleton pregnancy. A population-based study. Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica, 69, 197–207.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Böhr, M. (1878). Untersuchungen über die Häufigkeit des Todes im Wochenbette in Preussen: Ihre Ursachen und ihre Consequenzen für die Sanitätspolizei [Investigations into the frequency of maternal mortality in Prussia]. Zeitschrift für Geburtshülfe und Gynäkologie, 3, 394–396.

  • Bojlén, K., & Bentzon, M. W. (1968). Influence of climate and nutrition on the age at menarche: A historical review and a modern hypothesis. Human Biology, 40, 69–85.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bray, F. (1997). Technology and gender: Fabrics of power in late imperial China. Berkeley: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Breschi, M., de Santis, G., & Lubisco, A. (1999). The own-children method of fertility estimation in historical demography. Udine, Italy: Forum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buchanan, R. (1975). Breastfeeding: Aid to infant health and fertility control. Population Reports, Series J, 4, 49–67.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bugos, P. E., Jr., & McCarthy, L. M. (1984). Ayoreo infanticide: A case study. In G. Hausfater & S. B. Hrdy (Eds.), Infanticide: Comparative and evolutionary approaches (pp. 503–520). New York, NY: Aldine Pub. Co.

  • Carr-Saunders, A. M. (1922). The population problem: A study in human evolution. Oxford, UK: Clarendon.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiazze, L., Jr., Brayer, F. T., Macisco, J. J., Jr., Parker, M. P., & Duffy, B. J. (1968). The length and variability of the human menstrual cycle. Journal of the American Medical Association, 203, 377–380.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark, A. (1983). Limitations on female life chances in rural central Gujarat. Indian Economic and Social History Review, 20, 1–25.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coale, A. J., & Trussell, T. J. (1974). Model fertility schedules: Variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations. Population Index, 40, 185–218.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cornell, L. L. (1996). Infanticide in early modern Japan? Demography, culture, and population growth. Journal of Asian Studies, 55, 22–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corsini, C. A. (1979). Is the fertility-reducing effect of lactation really substantial? In H. Leridon & J. Menken (Eds.), Pattern and determinants of natural fertility: Proceedings of a seminar on natural fertility (pp. 197–215). Paris, France: Ordina Editions.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cronin, T. J. (1968). Influence of lactation upon ovulation. Lancet, 2, 422–424.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dada, O. A., Akesode, F. A., Olanrewaju, D. M., Olowu, O. A., Sule-Odu, O., Fakoya, T. A., . . . WHO Task Force on Methods for the Natural Regulation of Fertility. (2002). Infant feeding and lactational amenorrhea in Sagamu, Nigeria. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 6(2), 39–50.

  • Danubio, M. E., & Sanna, E. (2008). Secular changes in human biological variables in western countries: An updated review and synthesis. Journal of Anthropological Sciences, 86, 91–112.

    Google Scholar 

  • David, P. A., & Mroz, T. A. (1989). Evidence of fertility regulation among rural French villagers, 1749–1789: A sequential econometric model of birth-spacing behavior. European Journal of Population, 5(1–26), 173–206.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donnet, M. L., Howie, P. W., Marnie, M., Cooper, W., & Lewis, M. (1990). Return of ovarian function following spontaneous abortion. Clinical Endocrinology, 33, 13–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Döring, G. K. (1963). Über die relative Häufigkeit des anovulatorischen Cyclus im Leben der Frau [On the relative frequency of anovulatory cycles in the life of women]. Archiv für Gynäkologie, 199, 115–123.

  • Dribe, M., & Scalone, F. (2010). Detecting deliberate fertility control in pre-transitional populations: Evidence from six German villages, 1766–1863. European Journal of Population, 26, 411–434.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drixler, F. F. (2008). Infanticide and fertility in Eastern Japan: Discourse and demography, 1660–1880 (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.

  • Drixler, F. F. (2013). Mabiki: Infanticide and population growth in Eastern Japan, 1660–1950. Berkeley: University of California Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Elias, S. G., van Noord, P. A., Peters, P. H., Tonkelaar, I., & Grobbee, D. E. (2003). Caloric restriction reduces age at menopause: The effect of the 1944–1945 Dutch Famine. Menopause, 10, 399–405.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eng, R. Y., & Smith, T. C. (1976). Peasant families and population control in eighteenth-century Japan. Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 6, 417–445.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eveleth, P. B., & Tanner, J. M. (1976). Worldwide variation in human growth. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fielde, A. (1887). Pagoda shadows: Studies from life in China. London, UK: T. Ogilve Smith.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ford, K., & Kim, Y. (1987). Distribution of postpartum amenorrhea: Some new evidence. Demography, 24, 413–430.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frantz, A. (1864). Handbuch der Statistik nach den neuesten und besten Quellen: Oesterreich, Preußen, Deutschland und die Schweiz [Statistics handbook based on the newest and best sources: Austria, Prussia, Germany, and Switzerland]. Breslau, Prussia: Verlag von Wilhelm Gottlob Korn.

  • French, F. E., & Bierman, J. M. (1962). Probabilities of fetal mortality. Public Health Reports, 77, 835–847.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuess, H. (2004). Divorce in Japan: Family, gender, and the state, 1600–2000. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gray, R. H., Campbell, O. M., Zacur, H. A., Labbok, M. H., & MacRae, S. L. (1987). Postpartum return of ovarian activity in nonbreastfeeding women monitored by urinary assays. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 64, 645–650.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grünberger, V. (1948). Die erste Blutung nach Geburt und Fehlgeburt [The first menstruation following childbirth and miscarriage]. Wiener klinische Wochenschrift, 60, 498–503.

  • Hallet, R. L. (1954). Cyclic ovarian function following spontaneous abortions. American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 67, 52–55.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanley, S. B. (1972). Toward an analysis of demographic and economic change in Tokugawa Japan: A village study. Journal of Asian Studies, 31, 515–537.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanley, S. B. (1974). Fertility, mortality, and life expectancy in pre-modern Japan. Population Studies, 28, 127–142.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayami, A. (1968). Nihon keizaishi he no shikaku [A perspective on Japan’s economic history]. Tokyo, Japan: Tōyō Keizai Shinpōsha.

  • Hayami, A. (1973) Kinsei nōson no rekishi jinkōgakuteki kenkyū: Shinshū Suwa chihō no shūmon aratamechō bunseki [The historical demography of early modern villages: The registers of religious surveillance of the Suwa region in Shinshū]. Tokyo, Japan: Tōyō Keizai Shinpōsha.

  • Hayami, A. (2001). The historical demography of pre-modern Japan. Tokyo, Japan: University of Tokyo Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hayami, A., & Kurosu, S. (2001). Regional diversity in demographic and family patterns in preindustrial Japan. Journal of Japanese Studies, 27, 295–321.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayami, A., & Ochiai, E. (2001). Family patterns and demographic factors in pre-industrial Japan. In T. J. Liu, J. Z. Lee, D. S. Reher, O. Saito, & F. Wang (Eds.), Asian population history (pp. 395–415). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hayami, A., & Okada, A. (2005). Population and households dynamics: A mountainous district in Northern Japan in the Shûmon Aratame Chô of Aizu, 1750–1850. History of the Family, 10, 195–229.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henry, L. (1961). Some data on natural fertility. Eugenics Quarterly, 18, 81–91.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Howie, P. W., & McNeilly, A. S. (1982). Breast-feeding and postpartum ovulation. IPPF Medical Bulletin, 16(2), 1–3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hrdy, S. B. (1999). Mother Nature: A history of mothers, infants, and natural selection. New York, NY: Pantheon Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ishihara, M. (1988). Nihon ni okeru zen-kōgyōka shakai no shusshōryoku bunseki: Kōzuke-no-kuni Usui-gun Goryō-mura no jirei wo chūshin ni [A fertility analysis of a preindustrial society in Japan: The example of Goryō in Usui district, Kōzuke]. Matsudaira Kinen Keizai Bunka Kenkyūjo kiyō, 6, 105–119.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iwata, S. (2009). “Inochi” wo meguru Kindaishi: Datai kara jinkō ninshin chūzetsu he [A modern history of “inochi”: From “abortion” to “artificial pregnancy interruption”]. Tokyo, Japan: Yoshikawa Kōbunkan.

  • Jannetta, A. B. (1987). Epidemics and mortality in early modern Japan. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, R. E. (1989). Breast-feeding and post-partum amenorrhea in Indonesia. Journal of Biosocial Science, 21, 83–100.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanagawa-ken. (1903). Kanagawa-ken tōkeisho Meiji 34-nen [Statistical yearbook of Kanagawa Prefecture for 1901]. Yokohama, Japan: Kanagwa Kenchō.

  • Kava, H. W., Klinger, H. P., Molnar, J. J., & Romney, S. L. (1968). Resumption of ovulation post partum. American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 102, 122–124.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kawaguchi, H. (2010). Decrease of child deaths from smallpox after the introduction of vaccination on the outskirts of Edo (Tokyo), Japan. In S. Kurosu, T. Bengtsson, & C. Campbell (Eds.), Demographic responses to economic and environmental crises (pp. 252–271). Kashiwa, Japan: Reitaku University.

    Google Scholar 

  • King, M. T. (2014). Between birth and death: Female infanticide in nineteenth-century China. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kinoshita, F. (2002). Kindaika izen no Nihon no jinkō to kazoku: Ushinawareta sekai kara no tegami [Population in family in premodern Japan: A letter from a lost world]. Kyoto, Japan: Mineruva Shobō.

  • Kitō, H. (1976). Tokugawa jidai nōson no nyūji shibō: Kainin kakiagechō no tōkeiteki kenkyū [Infant mortality in Tokugawa-period villages]. Mita Gakkai zasshi, 69, 696–703.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitō, H. (1986). Kinsei kōki chihō toshi no jinkō saiseisanryoku: Chichibu Ōmiya-gō no baai [The ability of early modern regional cities to reproduce their population: The case of Ōmiya-gō in Chichibu]. Jōchi keizai ronshū, Special issue, 167–185.

  • Kitō, H. (1995). Zen-Kindai Nihon no shusshōryoku to junyū kankō [Fertility and breastfeeding customs in premodern Japan]. Jōchi keizai ronshū, 40(2), 19–28.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitō, H. (2007). Zusetsu jinkō de miru Nihon shi: Jōmon jidai kara kinmirai shakai made [An illustrated history of Japan seen through population]. Tokyo, Japan: PHP Kenkyūjo.

  • Kojima, M. (2004). Meiji, Taishō-ki no Kanagawa-ken: Jinkō kōzō to hendō wo chūshin ni [Kanagawa prefecture in the Meiji and Taishō periods: With a focus on population structure and change]. Kashiwa, Japan: Reitaku Daigaku Shuppankai.

  • Kurosu, S. (2003). Marriage, fertility, and economic correlates in nineteenth-century Japan. In M. Breschi, S. Kurosu, & M. Oris (Eds.), The own-children method of fertility estimation: Applications in historical demography (pp. 53–75). Udine, Italy: Forum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kurosu, S. (2011). Divorce in early modern rural Japan: Household and individual life course in Northeastern villages, 1716–1870. Journal of Family History, 36, 118–141.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larsen, U. (1994). Sterility in sub-Saharan Africa. Population Studies, 48, 459–474.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lavely, W. (2007). Sex, breastfeeding, and marital fertility in pretransition China. Population and Development Review, 33, 289–320.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, J. Z., & Campbell, C. D. (1997). Fate and fortune in rural China: Social organization and population behavior in Liaoning, 1774–1873. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge Unversity Press.

  • Lee, J. Z., & Wang, F. (1999). One quarter of humanity: Malthusian mythology and Chinese realities, 1700–2000. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, J. Z., Feng, W., & Campbell, C. (1994). Infant and child mortality among the Qing nobility: Implications for two types of positive check. Population Studies, 48, 395–411.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lesthaeghe, R. J., & Page, H. J. (1980). The post-partum non-susceptible period: Development and application of model schedules. Population Studies, 34, 143–169.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malik, S. L., & Hauspie, R. C. (1986). Age at menarche among high-altitude Bods of Ladakh (India). Human Biology, 58, 541–548.

    Google Scholar 

  • McLaren, A. (1978). Abortion in France: Women and the regulation of family size 1800–1914. French Historical Studies, 10, 461–485.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLaren, A. (1984). Reproductive rituals: The perception of fertility in England from the sixteenth century to the nineteenth century. London, UK: Methuen.

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller, B. D. (1981). The endangered sex: Neglect of female children in rural North India. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monbushō. (1920). Joshi taiiku jōkyō chōsa [A survey of girls’ physical education]. Tokyo, Japan: Monbushō.

  • Mosk, C. A. (1978). Fecundity, infanticide, and food consumption in Japan. Explorations in Economic History, 15, 269–289.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Naikaku Tōkeikyoku. (1905). Meiji 34-nen Nihon Teikoku jinkō dōtai tōkei [Vital statistics for the Empire of Japan, 1901]. Tokyo, Japan: Naikaku Tōkeikyoku.

  • Naikaku Tōkeikyoku. (1932). Shōwa 5-nen Nihon Teikoku jinkō dōtai tōkei [Vital statistics for the Empire of Japan, 1930]. Tokyo, Japan: Naikaku Tōkeikyoku.

  • Narimatsu, S. (1985). Kinsei Tōhoku nōson no hitobito: ƬŌshū Asaka-gun Shimomoriya-mura [The people of an early modern Northeastern village: Shimomoriya in Asaka district in Ōshū]. Kyoto, Japan: Mineruva Shobō.

  • Narimatsu, S. (1992). Edo jidai no Tōhoku nōson: Nihonmatsu-han Niita-mura [A Northeastern village in the Edo period: Niita in Nihonmatsu domain]. Tokyo, Japan: Dōbunkan.

  • Ogino, M. (2008). “Kazoku keikaku” he no michi: Kindai Nihon no seishoku wo meguru seiji [The path toward “family planning”: The politics of reproduction in modern Japan]. Tokyo, Japan: Iwanami Shoten.

  • Onshi Zaidan Boshi Aiikukai (Eds.) (1975). Nihon san’iku shūzoku shiryō shūsei [A collection of sources on Japan’s birthing and childrearing customs]. Tokyo, Japan: Daiichi Hōki Shuppan.

  • Ōta, M. (1997). Kyōdō kenkyū no kadai to hōhō oyobi tōtatsuten ni tsuite [Introduction]. In M. Ōta (Ed.), Kinsei Nihon mabiki kankō shiryō shūsei (pp. 5–32). Tokyo, Japan: Tōsui Shobō.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ōta, Z. (ca. 1810/1905). Rigen shūran [A vernacular dictionary], published with additions as R. Murata, Y. Inoue, & H. Kondō (Eds.), Zōho rigen shūran. Tokyo: Kondō Shuppanbu (1905).

  • Pavelka, M. S. M., & Fedigan, L. M. (1991). Menopause: A comparative life history perspective. Yearbook of Physical Anthropology, 34, 13–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pawson, I. G. (1976). Growth and development in high altitude populations: A review of Ethiopian, Peruvian, and Nepalese studies. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B, 194, 83–98.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng, Y., Hight-Laukaran, V., Peterson, A. E., & Pérez-Escamilla, R. (1998). Maternal nutritional status is inversely associated with lactational amenorrhea in sub-Saharan Africa: Results from Demographic and Health Surveys II and III. Journal of Nutrition, 128, 1672–1680.

    Google Scholar 

  • Potter, R. G., & Kobrin, F. E. (1981). Distributions of amenorrhea and anovulation. Population Studies, 35, 85–88.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramseyer, J. M. (1996). Odd markets in Japanese history: Law and economic growth. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Reher, D., & Sanz-Gimeno, A. (2007). Rethinking historical reproductive change: Insights from longitudinal data for a Spanish town. Population and Development Review, 33, 703–727.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ridley, J. C., & Sheps, M. C. (1966). An analytic simulation model of human reproduction with demographic and biological components. Population Studies, 19, 297–310.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ritsumeikan Daigaku Takagi [Masao] Zemi. (1985). Kinsei nōmin kazoku no rekishi jinkōgakuteki kenkyū: Ōshū Iwai chihō no ninzū aratamechō bunseki [The historical demography of early modern farm families: An analysis of the population registers of the Iwai region of Ōshū]. Kyoto, Japan: Ritsumeikan Daigaku Sangyō Shakai Gakubu Takagi Kenkyūshitsu.

  • Ritsumeikan Daigaku Takagi [Masao] Zemi. (1986). Kazoku no rekishi jinkōgaku: Tōhoku chihō no shūmon, ninzū aratamechō bunseki [The historical demography of the family: An analysis of population registers from the Northeast]. Kyoto, Japan: Ritsumeikan Daigaku Sangyō Shakai Gakubu Takagi Kenkyūshitsu.

  • Ritsumeikan Daigaku Takagi [Masao] Zemi. (1988). Toshi to nōson no rekishi jinkōgaku: Shūmon aratamechō kara mita Kinsei no machi to mura [The historical demography of cities and villages: The early modern town and village viewed from registers of religious surveillance]. Kyoto, Japan: Ritsumeikan Daigaku Sangyō Shakai Gakubu Takagi Kenkyūshitsu.

  • Royston, P., & Ferreira, A. (1999). A new approach to modeling daily probabilities of conception. Biometrics, 55, 1005–1013.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rutten, W. (1993). Smallpox, subfecundity, and sterility: A case study from a nineteenth-century Dutch municipality. Social History of Medicine, 6, 85–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saitō, O. (1992). Infanticide, fertility, and “population stagnation”: The state of Tokugawa historical demography. Japan Forum, 4, 248–267.

    Google Scholar 

  • Satwanti [sic], Bhalla, R., Kapoor, A. K., & Singh, I. P. (1983). Variations in the age at menarche due to physical exercise and altitude. Zeitschrift für Morphologie und Anthropologie, 73, 323–332.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sawayama, M. (1998). Shussan to shintai no Kinsei [Birth and the body in the early modern period]. Tokyo, Japan: Keisō Shobō.

  • Schiefenhövel, W. (1986). Populationsdynamische Homöostase bei den Eipo in West-Neuguinea [Demographic homeostasis among the Eipo of Western New Guinea]. In O. Kraus (Ed.), Regulation, Manipulation, und Explosion der Bevölkerungsdichte (pp. 53–72). Göttingen, Germany: Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shepherd, J. R. (1995). Marriage and mandatory abortion among the 17th-century Siraya. Arlington, VA: American Anthropological Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiba, K. (1811/1966). Shunparō hikki [Shunparō’s notes]. In S. Takimoto (Ed.), Nihon keizai taiten (Vol. 20). Tokyo, Japan: Meiji Bunken.

  • Shimizu, M., & Miyai, T. (1968). Tōhoku nōson fujin no seikō hindo ni tsuite [On coital frequencies of Northeastern village women]. Nihon Funin Gakkai zasshi, 13(4), 12–14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sievert, L. L. (2006). Menopause: A biocultural perspective. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh, L., & Ahuja, S. (1980). Trend of menopause among the women of Punjab. Anthropologischer Anzeiger, 38, 297–300.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, R. J. (1983). Making village women into “good wives and wise mothers” in prewar Japan. Journal of Family History, 8, 70–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sommer, M. H. (2010). Abortion in late Imperial China: Routine birth control or crisis intervention? Late Imperial China, 31(2), 97–165.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sun, T.-H., Chang, M.-C., Lee, M.-L., & Lin, H.-S. (2002). Knowledge, attitudes, and practice of contraception in Taiwan: Sixth Province-Wide Fertility Survey (KAP VI), 1986. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]. doi:10.3886/ICPSR06867.v1

  • Suzuki, S. (ca. 1800/1936). Sokuin yojō [Lingering compassion], published as Takahashi, B. & Ōta, T. T. (Eds.), Mikan sokuin yojō. Tokyo, Japan: Chūō Shakai Jigyō Kyōkai Shakai Jigyō Kenkyūjo.

  • Takahashi, M. (2005). Zaigōmachi no rekishi jinkōgaku: Kinsei ni okeru chiiki to chihō toshi no hatten [The historical demography of a local town]. Kyoto, Japan: Mineruva Shobō.

  • Tamada, T., & Iwasaki, H. (1995). Honpō josei no heikei nenrei [Japanese women’s age at menopause]. Nihon sanka fujin kagakukai zasshi, 47, 947–952.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, F., Renaud, F., Benefice, E. B., De Meeüs, T., & Guegan, J.-F. (2001). International variability of ages at menarche and menopause: Patterns and main determinants. Human Biology, 73, 271–290.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tomobe, K. (1991). Kinsei Nihon nōson ni okeru shizen shusshōryoku suikei no kokoromi [An attempt to estimate the natural fertility in early modern Japanese villages]. Jinkōgaku kenkyū, 14, 35–47.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tomobe, K. (2002). Tokugawa nōson ni okeru ‘shusshōryoku’ to sono kinsetsu yōin: “Mabiki” setsu no hihan to Kinsei kara Kindai no nōson bosei wo meguru kōsatsu [“Fertility” and its proximate determinants in Tokugawa villages]. In A. Hayami (Ed.), Kindai ikōki no jinkō to rekishi (pp. 199–228). Kyoto, Japan: Mineruva Shobō.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tomobe, K. (2007). Kindai Nihon ni okeru heikin shochō nenrei no hensen to shinchō zōka sokudo no bunseki: Keiryō taikaku-shi kara mita Senkanki Nihon no seikatsu suijun saikō [An analysis of the changing mean age at menarche in modern Japan and the speed of height increase]. Shakai keizai shigaku, 72, 695–717.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tomobe, K. (2008). Jinkō kara mita seimei risuku: Kinsei, Kindai Nihon ni okeru karyūbyō rikan to sono kiketsu [Life risks viewed from the point of view of population: Venereal disease infections and their consequences]. In O. Kawagoe & K. Tomobe (Eds.), Seimei to iu risuku: 20-seiki shakai no saiseisan senryaku (pp. 21–60). Tokyo, Japan: Hōsei Daigaku Shuppankyoku.

    Google Scholar 

  • Treloar, A. E., Boynton, R. E., Brown, B. W., & Behn, B. G. (1967). Variation of the human menstrual cycle through reproductive life. International Journal of Fertility, 12, 77–126.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsuya, N. (2001). Kinsei Nihon no shusshō rejīmu: Ōshū Nihonmatsu-han nōson no ninbetsu aratamechō dēta no ibento historī bunseki [The fertility regime of early modern Japan: An event history analysis of village population registers in Nihonmatsu domain in Ōshū]. In A. Hayami, H, Kitō, & K. Ken’ichi (Eds.), Rekishi jinkōhaku no furontia (pp. 219–244). Kyoto, Japan: Mineruva Shobō.

  • Tsuya, N., & Kurosu, S. (2010). Family, household, and reproduction in Northeastern Japan, 1716 to 1870. In N. Tsuya, F. Wang, G. Alter, & J. Z. Lee (Eds.), Prudence and pressure: Reproduction and human agency in Europe and Asia, 1700–1900 (pp. 249–285). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Bavel, J. (2004a). Detecting stopping and spacing behaviour in historical demography: A critical review of methods. Population, 59, 117–128.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Bavel, J. (2004b). Deliberate birth spacing before the fertility transition in Europe: Evidence from nineteenth-century Belgium. Population Studies, 58, 95–107.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Bavel, J., & Kok, J. (2004). Birth spacing in the Netherlands: The effects of family composition, occupation and religion on birth intervals, 1820–1885. European Journal of Population, 20, 119–140.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vann, R. T., & Eversley, D. (2002). Friends in life and death: British and Irish Quakers in the Demographic Transition. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • WHO, & UNICEF. (1996). 1990 estimates of maternal mortality: A new approach. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, C., Oeppen, J., & Pardoe, M. (1988). What is natural fertility? The modelling of a concept. Population Index, 54, 4–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wood, J. W. (1994). Dynamics of human reproduction: Biology, biometry, demography. New York, NY: Aldine de Gruter.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood, J. W., Lai, D., Johnson, P. L., Campbell, K. L., & Maslar, I. A. (1985). Lactation and birth spacing in highland New Guinea. Journal of Biosocial Science, 9(Suppl.), 159–173.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wood, J. W., & Weinstein, M. (1988). A model of age-specific fecundability. Population Studies, 42, 85–113.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woods, R. (2009). Death before birth: Fetal health and mortality in historical perspective. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Wrigley, E. A., Davies, R. S., Oeppen, J. E., & Schofield, R. S. (1997). English population history from family reconstitution 1580–1837. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Wyshak, G., & Frisch, R. E. (1982). Evidence for a secular trend in age of menarche. New England Journal of Medicine, 306, 1033–1035.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yokohama-shi. (1903). Yokohama-shi dai-1-kai tōkeisho [The first statistical yearbook of Yokohama City]. Yokohama, Japan: Yokohama-shi.

  • Zhongguo Xuesheng Tizhi Jiankang Yanjiuzu. (1987). Zhongguo xuesheng tizhi yu jiankang yanjiu [Research on the physical condition and health of China’s students]. Beijing, China: Renmin Jiaoyu Chubanshe.

Download references

Acknowledgments

George Ehrhardt wrote the Python code for the simulation model. Robert Wyman improved the manuscript with his suggestions, as did three anonymous reviewers. This work was supported in part by the facilities and staff of the Yale University Faculty of Arts and Sciences High Performance Computing Center and by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CNS 08-21132 that partially funded acquisition of the facilities.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of History, Yale University, P.O. Box 208324, New Haven, CT, 06520-8324, USA

    Fabian F. Drixler

Authors
  1. Fabian F. Drixler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fabian F. Drixler.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Drixler, F.F. Conjuring the Ghosts of Missing Children: A Monte Carlo Simulation of Reproductive Restraint in Tokugawa Japan. Demography 52, 667–703 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0378-1

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0378-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation