Abstract
The Chernobyl nuclear accident of 1986 had deleterious health consequences for the population of Belarus, especially for those who were children at the time of the disaster. Using the 2003–2008 waves of the Belarusian Household Survey of Income and Expenditure (BHSIE), we estimate the effect of radiation exposure on the health, education, and labor market outcomes among cohorts and areas affected by the accident, utilizing the nuclear accident as a natural experiment. We find that young individuals who came from the most contaminated areas had worse health, were less likely to hold university degrees, were less likely to be employed, and had lower wages compared to those who were older at the time of the accident and who came from less contaminated areas.
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Notes
See, for example, the discussion of the safety of using the contaminated land for agriculture in Belarus: http://lenta.ru/articles/2010/07/22/chernobyl/, accessed on 05.25.2011.
Lehmann and Wadsworth (2009) also looked at the differences in irradiation by age at exposure. However, their analysis looked at the differences at much older ages, and their treatment group was comprised of children under age 13 at the time of the Chernobyl accident.
Because many organs and tissues were exposed by the Chernobyl accident, the concept of effective dose, which characterizes the overall health risk that is due to any combination of radiation, has been commonly used. The effective dose accounts for both absorbed energy and type of radiation and for susceptibility of various organs and tissues to developing a severe radiation-induced cancer or genetic effect. For gamma radiation, the unit of effective dose is the sievert (Sy). (One Gy corresponds to one Sv.) One Sy is a comparatively large dose, so the millisievert or mSv (one one-thousandth of a Sv) is commonly used to describe normal exposures. Annual natural background doses of humans worldwide were estimated to average 2.4 mSv, with a typical range of 1–10 mSv (IAEA 2005).
The rural population of Belarus consumed locally produced milk, and the urban population consumed milk from the numerous local milk factories that used primarily local milk for their production (Kruk 2004).
Hypothyroidism is the result of an underactive thyroid gland that cannot make enough thyroid hormone to keep the body running normally. When thyroid hormone levels are too low, the body’s cells cannot get enough thyroid hormone, and the body’s processes start slowing down. As the metabolism slows, the patient tires easily, becomes forgetful and depressed, and gains weight (Source: American Thyroid Association, http://www.thyroid.org/patients/patient_brochures/childhood.html, accessed on 05.25.2011).
This choice assumes that entry into the labor market entry starts at age 16. While most people at this age are continuing their secondary education, some choose to join the labor force.
We also estimated probit regressions for the binary variables “hospitalized,” “not good health,” “university,” and “employed” and obtained similar results. In order to address endogenous selection into employment, we estimated the wage equation using the Heckman (1979) selection model, where the selection equation included the “not good health” dummy variable in addition to all of the main regression equation variables.
There is also a significant association between the dummy variable “influenced by Chernobyl” (=1 if a person reported being seriously or partially influenced by Chernobyl and zero otherwise) and all health measures in the years 1999–2002 (results not shown). This association gives further support to the hypothesis that the reported health problems were related to Chernobyl. Unfortunately, the survey does not elaborate on exactly how the person was influenced by Chernobyl, and this variable is not available in BHSIE after 2002.
Education variables were not included in the wage regression because they constitute “bad controls,” since they are “outcome variables in the notional experiment at hand” (Angrist and Pischke, 2009). In our case, since all of the individuals are under age 30 and many are still enrolled in secondary education or college, including education variables as controls could introduce selection bias. Furthermore, we are interested in the reduced effect of Chernobyl on earnings, including the part of this effect that works through education.
Notably, a May 1st parade was held as usual in Kiev, right after the catastrophe on April 26, 1986, only 90 km (about 56 miles) away from the burning power plant. Medvedev (1990) documented the lack of information and slow response after the catastrophe, pointing out, for example, that “the population of Pripyat was not warned about the accident, nor were the civil defense headquarters informed. Since the civil defense staff had no information about the situation, they took no measures. As a result, the usual rhythm of life on Saturday proceeded …. The evacuation began only 36 h later and was conducted according to a newly worked-out plan.”
The government of Belarus created special privileges for applicants to secondary professional and higher educational institutions who were from the contaminated regions. For example, Law #9-3 of January 6, 2009, “on social protection of citizens who suffered from the Chernobyl and other radioactive disasters” (article 18 clause 7, article 21 clause 1.3, article 22 clause 1.3, article 23 clause 1.2) provides that people who participated in the liquidation of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident or who lived in the contaminated regions are entitled to preferential rights to obtain secondary, specialized, or higher education.
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Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank Štěpán Jurajda, Randall K. Filer, Mykhaylo Salnykov, Kateryna Bornukova, Lauren Heller, Christopher Jepsen and the participants of the seminar at BEROC for their valuable comments. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Food & Drug Administration.
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An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12122-012-9131-3.
Appendix
Appendix
Population trends by region and by area of exposure to radiation, 1969–2009. Data for 1969–1999 is taken from the Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Belarus, ed. 2002. Data for 2009 is taken from the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus web-site http://belstat.gov.by/homep/en/main.html, accessed on 05.25.2011. The vertical dashed line marks year 1986
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Yemelyanau, M., Amialchuk, A. & Ali, M.M. Evidence from the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: The Effect on Health, Education, and Labor Market Outcomes in Belarus. J Labor Res 33, 1–20 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12122-011-9122-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12122-011-9122-9