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Dropout in secondary education: an application of a multilevel discrete-time hazard model accounting for school changes

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Abstract

For several decades, researchers have focused on dropout in search for an explanation and prevention of this phenomenon. However, past research is characterized by methodological shortcomings. Most of this research was conducted without considering the hierarchical structure of educational data and ignored the longitudinal path towards dropout. Moreover, research that did take into account these shortcomings, did not correct for student mobility between schools, despite the strong correlation with dropout (South et al. 2007). In this study, we attempt to address these shortcoming by implementing a multilevel discrete-time hazard model and exploring the effect of different school classifications on the school effects. Partially analogous to Grady and Beretvas (2010) we compare models with estimated school effects based on the first and on the last school attended and compare these models with multiple membership models and cross-classified models. The results of this comparison indicate that ignoring student mobility can have strong implications on the predictors of dropout. Not only do models which take into account this mobility yield better model fits, models ignoring this mobility tend to miss the effect of school level variables. With respect to the conclusions on dropout research, our models provide evidence for the often cited student characteristics predicting dropout and indicate stronger school effects than generally assumed.

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Abbreviations

DIC:

Deviance Information Criterion

LOSO:

‘Longitudinaal Onderzoek in het Secundair Onderwijs’ or ‘Longitudinal research in secondary education’

MCMC:

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

MDTH:

Multilevel discrete-time hazard analysis

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Educational Effectiveness and Evaluation, The Education and Training Research Group, K. U. Leuven, Dekenstraat 2, P.O. Box 3773, 3000, Leuven, Belgium

    Carl Lamote, Jan Van Damme, Sara Speybroeck, Tinneke Boonen & Jerissa de Bilde

  2. Methodology of Educational Sciences Research Group, K. U. Leuven, Andreas Vesaliusstraat 2, P.O. Box 3762, 3000, Leuven, Belgium

    Wim Van Den Noortgate

Authors
  1. Carl Lamote
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  2. Jan Van Damme
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  3. Wim Van Den Noortgate
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  4. Sara Speybroeck
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  5. Tinneke Boonen
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  6. Jerissa de Bilde
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Correspondence to Carl Lamote.

Additional information

A previous version of this study was presented at the biennial conference of the European Association for Research on Learning and Instruction (EARLI). Exeter (UK), 30 August–03 September 2011.

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Lamote, C., Van Damme, J., Van Den Noortgate, W. et al. Dropout in secondary education: an application of a multilevel discrete-time hazard model accounting for school changes. Qual Quant 47, 2425–2446 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9662-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9662-y

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