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Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation in the Auckland volcanic field

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Abstract

The idea of a volcanic field ‘boundary’ is prevalent in the literature, but ill-defined at best. We use the elliptically constrained vents in the Auckland Volcanic Field to examine how spatial intensity models can be tested to assess whether they are consistent with such features. A means of modifying the anisotropic Gaussian kernel density estimate to reflect the existence of a ‘hard’ boundary is then suggested, and the result shown to reproduce the observed elliptical distribution. A new idea, that of a spatio-volumetric model, is introduced as being more relevant to hazard in a monogenetic volcanic field than the spatiotemporal hazard model due to the low temporal rates in volcanic fields. Significant dependencies between the locations and erupted volumes of the observed centres are deduced, and expressed in the form of a spatially-varying probability density. In the future, larger volumes are to be expected in the ‘gaps’ between existing centres, with the location of the greatest forecast volume lying in the shipping channel between Rangitoto and Castor Bay. The results argue for tectonic control over location and magmatic control over erupted volume. The spatio-volumetric model is consistent with the hypothesis of a flat elliptical area in the mantle where tensional stresses, related to the local tectonics and geology, allow decompressional melting.

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Acknowledgments

The author is supported by the New Zealand Natural Hazards Research Platform. Annalisa Cappello and an anonymous reviewer provided welcomed feedback on the original draft. Equation 2 was the product of discussions with Shane Cronin.

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  1. Volcanic Risk Solutions, Massey University, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand

    Mark S. Bebbington

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Correspondence to Mark S. Bebbington.

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Bebbington, M.S. Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation in the Auckland volcanic field. Bull Volcanol 77, 39 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-015-0921-3

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