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Likelihood

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Abstract

A statistical model for phenomena in the sciences or social sciences is a mathematical construct which associates a probability with each of the possible outcomes. When two different models are to be compared as explanations for the same observed outcome, or perhaps two variants of the same model differing only in the value of some adjustable parameter, the probability of obtaining this particular outcome can be calculated for each, and is then known as the likelihood for the hypothesis (or parameter value) given the particular outcome or ‘data’.

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Bibliography

  • Cox, D.R., and D.V. Hinkley. 1974. Theoretical statistics. London: Chapman & Hall.

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  • Edwards, A.W.F. 1972. Likelihood. Cambridge: University Press. Paperback edn, 1984.

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  • Edwards, A.W.F. 1974. The history of likelihood. International Statistical Review 42: 9–15.

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  • Fisher, R.A. 1912. On an absolute criterion for fitting frequency curves. Messenger of Mathematics 41: 155–160.

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  • Fisher, R.A. 1921. On the ‘Probable Error’ of a coefficient of correlation deduced from a small sample. Metron 1(4): 3–32.

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Edwards, A.W.F. (2018). Likelihood. In: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_874

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