Abstract
The modelling of economic expectations is central to economics. Expectations of future economic conditions can be represented in econometric models by survey data, expectations proxies such as adaptive expectations, expert forecasts, or market expectations. The theory that expectations are rational, that is, optimal forecasts given the model, can be a useful modelling device, but evidence from behavioural economics shows that it has important limitations.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Bibliography
Akerlof, G.A., and J.L. Yellen. 1985. A near-rational model of the business cycle, with wage and price inertia. Quarterly Journal of Economics 100: 823–838.
Berg, J., R. Forsythe, F. Nelson, and T. Reitz. 2008. Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research. In Handbook of experimental economic results, ed. C. Plott and V. Smith. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Cagan, P. 1956. The monetary dynamics of hyperinflation. In Studies in the quantity theory of money, ed. M. Friedman. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Fisher, I. 1930. The theory of interest. New York: Macmillan.
Friedman, B.M. 1979. Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of ‘rational’ expectations models. Journal of Monetary Economics 5: 23–41.
Frydman, R., and M.D. Goldberg. 2007. Imperfect knowledge economics: Exchange rates and risk. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Galton, F. 1907. Vox populi. Nature 75: 450–451.
Gurkaynak, R., and J. Wolfers. 2006. Macroeconomic derivatives: An initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk, Working paper no. 11929. Cambridge, MA: NBER.
Katona, G. 1975. Psychological economics. New York: Elsevier.
Lange, J., and N. Economides. 2005. A parimutuel market microstructure for contingent claims. European Financial Management 11: 25–49.
Lucas, R.E. 1976. Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1: 19–46.
Lucas, R.E. Jr., and T.J. Sargent. 1981. After Keynesian macroeconomics. In Rational expectations and econometric practice, ed. R.E. Lucas Jr. and T.J. Sargent. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Manski, C. 2006. Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets. Economics Letters 91: 425–429.
Meiselman, D. 1962. The term structure of interest rates. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.
Modigliani, F., and R. Sutch. 1966. Innovations in interest rate policy. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 56: 178–197.
Muth, J.F. 1961. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica 29: 315–335.
Phillips, A.W. 1958. The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957. Economica 25: 283–299.
Sargent, T.J. 1976. A classical macroeconomic model for the United States. Journal of Political Economy 84: 207–237.
Sargent, T.J., and N. Wallace. 1973. Rational expectations and the dynamics of hyperinflation. International Economic Review 14: 328–350.
Sargent, T.J., and N. Wallace. 1981. ‘Rational’ expectations, the optimal monetary instrument, and the optimal money supply rule. In Rational expectations and econometric practice, ed. R.E. Lucas and T.J. Sargent. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Shiller, R.J. 2003. The new financial order: Risk in the 21st century. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Shiller, R.J. 2005. Irrational exuberance. 2nd ed. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Simon, H.A. 1956. Dynamic programming under uncertainty with a quadratic objective function. Econometrica 24: 74–81.
Thaler, R.H. 1991. Quasi-rational economics. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Tobin, J. 1980. Asset accumulation and economic activity. Yijo Jahnsson Lecture. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
Wolfers, J., and E. Zitzewitz. 2004. Prediction markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (2): 107–126.
Wolfers, J., and Zitzewitz, E. 2006. Interpreting prediction markets prices as probabilities. Working paper, Rodney White Center for Financial Research. Wharton School: University of Pennsylvania.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Copyright information
© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Ltd.
About this entry
Cite this entry
Shiller, R.J. (2018). Expectations. In: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_407
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_407
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-95188-8
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-95189-5
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceReference Module Humanities and Social SciencesReference Module Business, Economics and Social Sciences