The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics

2018 Edition
| Editors: Macmillan Publishers Ltd

Demography

  • Nathan Keyfitz
Reference work entry
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_23

Abstract

Demography is the analysis of population, including both techniques and substance. It is applied most often to human populations, and includes the gathering of data, the construction of models, interpretation of population changes, policy recommendations. The data used by demographers are partly cross-sectional in the form of censuses and sample surveys, partly flow data consisting of time series of births and deaths. Models that express the relation between the flow series of births, deaths and migration on the one side and the cross sections on the other are a main tradition of demography, running through the work of Lotka, Leslie and many others. Interpretation includes tracing causes of changes, and assessing their future consequences. Policy recommendations aim at lowering birth rates in countries of rapid growth, and raising it in countries below replacement.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Bibliography

  1. Arthur, W.B., and J.W. Vaupel. 1984. Some general relationships in population dynamics. Population Index 50(2): 214–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Blumen, I., M. Kogan, and P.J. McCarthy. 1955. The industrial mobility of labor as a probability process, Cornell studies of industrial and labor relations, vol. VI. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  3. Bogue, D.J. 1985. The population of the United States: Historical trends and future projections. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
  4. Bourgeois-Pichat, J. 1966. The concept of a stable population: Application to the study of populations of countries with incomplete population statistics. ST/SOA/Series A 139. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
  5. Bowley, A.L. 1924. Births and population of Great Britain. Journal of the Royal Economic Society 34: 188–192.Google Scholar
  6. Brass, W. 1971. On the scale of mortality. In Biological aspects of demography, ed. W. Brass, 69–110. London: Taylor and Francis.Google Scholar
  7. Brass, W. 1974. Perspectives in population prediction, illustrated by the statistics of England and Wales. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 137: 532–583.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Brass, W. 1975. Methods for estimating fertility and mortality from limited and defective data. An occasional publication. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina, International Program of Laboratories for Population Statistics.Google Scholar
  9. Cannan, E. 1895. The probability of cessation of growth of population in England and Wales during the next century. Economic Journal 5: 505–515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Coale, A.J. 1963. Estimates of various demographic measures through the quasi-stable age distribution. In Emerging techniques in population research (39th annual conference of the Milbank Memorial Fund, 1962), 175–193. New York: Milbank Memorial Fund.Google Scholar
  11. Coale, A.J. 1966. Methods of estimating fertility and mortality from censuses of population. Princeton: Office of Population Research.Google Scholar
  12. Coale, A.J. 1984. Life table construction on the basis of two enumerations of a closed population. Population Index 50(2): 193–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Coale, A.J., and P. Demeny. 1983. Regional model life tables and stable populations, 2nd ed. New York: Academic.Google Scholar
  14. Cohen, J.E. 1984. Demographic doomsday deferred. Harvard Magazine 86(3): 50–51.Google Scholar
  15. Demetrius, L. 1974. Demographic parameters and natural selection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 71: 4645–4647.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Easterlin, R.A. 1980. Birth and fortune: The impact of numbers on personal welfare. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
  17. Elandt-Johnson, R.C., and N.L. Johnson. 1980. Survival models and data analysis. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  18. Gini, C. 1924. Premières recherches sur la fecondabilité de la femme. Proceedings of the International Mathematics Congress 2: 889–892.Google Scholar
  19. Goldman, N. 1978. Estimating the intrinsic rate of increase from the average numbers of younger and older sisters. Demography 15: 499–508.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Goodman, L.A. 1961. Statistical methods for the mover-stayer model. Journal of the American Statistical Association 56(296): 841–868.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Goodman, L.A. 1969. The analysis of population growth when the birth and death rates depend upon several factors. Biometrics 25: 659–681.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Goodman, L.A., N. Keyfitz, and T.W. Pullman. 1974. Family formation and the frequency of various kinship relationships. Theoretical Population Biology 5: 1–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Graunt, J. 1662. In Natural and political observations made upon the bills of mortality, ed. Walter F. Willcox. London/Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1939.Google Scholar
  24. Henry, L. 1957a. Fécondité et famille. Mmdèles mathématiques I. Population 12: 413–444.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Henry, L. 1957b. Fécondité et famille. Modèles mathématiques II. Population 16: 27–48, 261–282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kaplan, E.L., and P. Meier. 1958. Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 53: 457–481.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Keyfitz, N. 1981. The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review 7(4): 579–593.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Keyfitz, N. 1985. Applied mathematical demography, 2nd ed. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kitagawa, E.M., and P.M. Hauser. 1973. Mortality in the United States. A study in socioeconomic epidemiology. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
  30. Le Bras, H. 1973. Parents, grandparents, diaeresis bisaieux. Population 28: 9–37. Trans. and ed. K. Wachter as Statistical studies of historical social structure. New York: Academic, 1978.Google Scholar
  31. Lee, R.D. 1974. The formal dynamics of controlled populations and the echo, the boom and the bust. Demography 11: 563–585.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Leslie, P.H. 1945. On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33: 183–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Lotka, A.J. 1931. Orphanhood in relation to demographic factors. Metron 7: 37–109.Google Scholar
  34. Lotka, A.J. 1939. Théorie analytique des associations biologiques. Part II: Analyse démographique avec application particulière à l’espèce humaine. Actualités Scientifiques et Industrielles, No. 780. Paris: Hermann et Cie.Google Scholar
  35. Mann, N.R., R.D. Schafer, and N.D. Singpurwalla. 1974. Methods for statistical analysis of reliability and life data. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  36. Pollard, J.H. 1966. On the use of the direct matrix product in analysing certain stochastic population models. Biometrika 53: 397–415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Potter, R.G. 1972. Births averted by induced abortion: An application of renewal theory. Theoretical Population Biology 3: 69–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Potter, R.G., and M.P. Parker. 1964. Predicting the time required to conceive. Population Studies 18: 99–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Pressat, R. 1961. L’analyse démographique: méthodes, résultats, applications. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France, for Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques.Google Scholar
  40. Preston, S.H., and A.J. Coale. 1982. Age structure, growth, attrition, and accession: A new synthesis. Population Index 48(2): 217–259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Rogers, A. 1975. Introduction to multiregional mathematical demography. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  42. Ryder, N.B. 1964. The process of demographic transition. Demography 1(1): 74–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Sauvy, A. 1952–1954. Théorie générale de la population. Vol. 1: Economie et population. Vol. II: Biologie sociale. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.Google Scholar
  44. Schoen, R. 1975. Constructing increment-decrement life tables. Demography 12: 313–324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Scudo, F.M. 1984. The ‘golden age’ of theoretical ecology: A conceptual appraisal. Revue Européenne des sciences sociales 22(67): 11–64.Google Scholar
  46. United Nations. 1985. World population prospects: Estimates and projections as assessed in 1982. ST/ESA/SER.A/82. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
  47. Vaupel, J.W., and I.Y. Yashin. 1985. The deviant dynamics of death in heterogeneous populations. In Sociological methodology 1985, ed. N.B. Tuma. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.Google Scholar
  48. Whelpton, P.K. 1936. An empirical method of calculating future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association 31: 457–473.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Nathan Keyfitz
    • 1
  1. 1.