Abstract
Probability denotes a family of ideas that originally centred on the notion of credibility, or reasonable belief falling short of certainty. There have arisen two quite distinct uses of this group of ideas, namely in the modelling of physical or social processes, and in drawing inferences from, or making decisions on the basis of, inconclusive data.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsBibliography
Bayes, T. 1763. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. In Studies in the history of statistics and probability, ed. E.S. Pearson and M.G. Kendall. London: Griffin, 1970.
Bernoulli, J. 1713. Ars conjectandi. Basle.
Butler, J. 1736. The analogy of religion. London.
Carnap, R. 1950. Logical foundations of probability. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Daston, R., M. Heidlberger, and L. Krüger (eds.). 1987. The probabilistic revolution, 2 vols. Cambridge, MA: Bradford Books.
de Finetti, B. 1937. Foresight: Its logical laws, its subjective sources. Trans. from the French in Studies in subjective probability, ed. H.E. Kyburg Jr., and H.E. Smokler. New York: Wiley. 1964.
Diaconis, P., and D. Freedman. 1980a. De Finetti’s generalizations of exchangeability. In Studies in induction logic and probability, vol. II, ed. R.C. Jeffrey. Berkeley/Los Angeles: University of California Press.
Diaconis, P., and D. Freedman. 1980b. De Finetti’s theorem for Markov chains. Annals of Probability 8(1): 115–130.
Diaconis, P., and S. Zabell. 1982. Updating subjective probability. Journal of the American Statistical Association 77: 822–830.
Edgeworth, F.Y. 1911. Probability. In The Encyclopaedia Britannica, vol. XXII, 11th ed. New York: Encyclopaedia Britannica.
Fine, T. 1973. Theories of probability. New York: Academic Press.
Fisher, R.A. 1950. Contributions to mathematical statistics. New York: Wiley.
Fisher, R.A. 1956. Statistical methods and scientific inference. Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd.
Huygens, Chr. 1657. Ratiociniis in aleae ludo (Reasoning in a game of chance). In Oeuvres complètes, ed. C. Huygens. The Hague: M. Nijhoff, 1888–1950, includes the original Latin, Huygens’ original Dutch, and French translation in Vol. 14.
Jeffreys, H. 1939. Theory of probability, 3rd ed, 1961. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Keynes, J.M. 1921. A treatise on probability. London: Macmillan.
Kolmogorov, A.N. 1933. Foundations of the theory of probability. Trans. from the German, New York: Chelsea, 1950.
de Laplace, P.S. 1795. A philosophical essay on probabilities. Trans. from the French. New York: Dover. 1951.
Maistrov, L.E. 1967. Probability theory: A historical sketch. Trans. from the Russian, New York: Academic Press, 1974.
Neyman, J., and E.S. Pearson. 1967. Joint statistical papers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Peirce, C.S. 1878, 1910. Collected papers of Charles Sanders Peirce, ed. C. Hartshorne., and P. Weiss. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1965
Poisson, S.-D. 1837. Recherches sur la probabilité des jugements en matière criminelle et en matière civile. Paris.
Popper, K.R. 1959. The propensity interpretation of probability. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 10: 25–42.
Ramsey, F.P. 1926. Truth and probability. In Foundations: Essays by F.P. Ramsey, ed. D.H. Mellor. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1978.
Reichenbach, H. 1949. The theory of probability. Berkeley/Los Angeles: University of California Press.
Savage, L.J. 1954. The foundations of statistics. New York: Wiley.
Stigler, S. 1986. The history of statistics: The measurement of uncertainty before 1900. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Suppes, P. 1973. New foundations of objective probability: Axioms for propensities. In Logic, methodology and philosophy of science, vol. IV, ed. P. Suppes et al. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Von Mises, R. 1928. Probability, statistics and truth. Trans. from the German, London: Allen & Unwin, 1957.
Von Neumann, J., and O. Morgenstern. 1944. Theory of games and economic behavior, 3rd ed. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1953.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Copyright information
© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Ltd.
About this entry
Cite this entry
Hacking, I. (2018). Probability. In: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_1758
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_1758
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-95188-8
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-95189-5
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceReference Module Humanities and Social SciencesReference Module Business, Economics and Social Sciences