Depressions

Abstract

Modern economies have a tendency to grow, but their growth is irregular. The periodic variations of most indicators and even occasional reversals of direction inevitably prompt the question whether these changes are of a random nature, or indicate broader sweeps, swings or cycles. The trade cycle, or Juglar cycle (named after Clément Juglar) of an average duration of about seven years appeared frequently enough in the course of the nineteenth century to be generally recognized as a cyclical phenomenon. Other possible recurrent movements were the inventory Kitchin cycles (Joseph Kitchin) of 2–3 years, and the longer Kuznets (Simon Kuznets) swings of 20–25 years, indicating alternate phases of European and American long-term investment and of transatlantic migration.