Abstract
Even though experiences with falling prices have been rare during the postwar period, deflation was widespread during the 1930s, and recorded historical episodes extend back to ancient and medieval times. With deflation having resurfaced as a major policy concern in the years following the global financial crisis, this chapter compares the properties of the earlier deflations with more recent episodes in both Europe and Asia. In focusing upon the determinants of deflation, its impact upon the economy as a whole, and the role of monetary policy, we see that even though deflation remains, in essence, a monetary phenomenon, combatting its effects, remains far from straightforward. A striking feature of the twenty-first-century deflations, for example, has been the discrepancy between consumer and producer price movements seen after 2008 that occurred in conjunction with sharp declines in commodity prices. Policymakers both past and present have had to contend with a variety of downward pressures on the money supply as well as complications arising from supply shocks and other negative forces.
References
Álvarez LJ, Sánchez I, Urtasun A (2017) The effect of oil price fluctuations on Spanish inflation. Banco de España, Madrid, May 11. https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/ArticulosAnaliticos/2017/T2/files/beaa1702-art14e.pdf
Ambler S (2009) Price-level targeting and stabilisation policy: a survey. J Econ Surv 23:974–997
Andersson K, Berg C (1995) The inflation target in Sweden. In: Haldane AG (ed) Targeting inflation: a conference of central banks on the use of inflation targets organized by the Bank of England. Bank of England, London, pp 207–225
Berg C, Jonung L (1999) Pioneering price level targeting: the Swedish experience 1931–1937. J Monet Econ 43:525–551
Bernanke BS (1983) Non-monetary effects of the financial crisis and the propagation of the Great Depression. Am Econ Rev 73:257–276
Bordo MD, Redish A (2004) Is deflation depressing? Evidence from the classical gold standard. In: Burdekin RCK, Siklos PL (eds) Deflation: current and historical perspectives. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 191–217
Borio C, Erdem M, Filardo A, Hoffman B (2015) The costs of deflation: a historical perspective. BIS Q Rev 31–54
Boskin MJ (2005) Causes and consequences of bias in the consumer price index as a measure of the cost of living. Atl Econ J 33:1–13
Burdekin RCK (1989) Preobrazhensky’s theory of primitive socialist accumulation. J Contemp Asia 19(3):297–307
Burdekin RCK (2007) Nontraditional monetary policy options and commodity-based stabilization policy. Int Econ Finance J 2:1–18
Burdekin RCK, Hu X (2018) Deflationary pressures today: the Chinese, Japanese and Spanish cases compared. Chin Econ, forthcoming
Burdekin RCK, Siklos PL (2004) Fears of deflation and the role of monetary policy. In: Burdekin RCK, Siklos PL (eds) Deflation: current and historical perspectives. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 1–27
Burdekin RCK, Weidenmier MD (2001) Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon: Richmond vs. Houston in 1864. Am Econ Rev 91:1621–1630
Burdekin RCK, Weidenmier MD (2009) The development of ‘non-traditional’ open market operations: lessons from FDR’s silver purchase program. In: Atack J, Neal L (eds) The origins and development of financial markets and institutions: from the seventeenth century to the present. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 319–344
Burdekin RCK, Mitchener KJ, Weidenmier MD (2012) Irving Fisher and price-level targeting in Austria: was silver the answer? J Money Credit Bank 44:733–750
Cai Hong-bo, Wang Jun-hai (2012) International commodity price and China’s economic fluctuation: empirical analysis based on different crude oil price Shocks [in Chinese]. Int Bus (Univ Int Bus Econ) [国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报)] (1):54–64
Caporale GM, Katsimi M, Pittis N (2002) Causality links between consumer and producer prices: some empirical evidence. South Econ J 68:703–711
Castro C, Jerez M, Barge-Gil A (2016) The deflationary effect of oil prices in the euro area. Energy Econ 56:389–397
Day J (1978) The great bullion famine of the fifteenth century. Past Present 79:3–54
Dickey GE (1977) Money, prices and growth: the American experience 1869–1896. Arno Press, New York
Eichengreen B (1992) Golden fetters: the gold standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939. Oxford University Press, New York
Eichengreen B, Temin P (2013) Fetters of gold and paper. In: Crafts N, Fearon P (eds) The Great Depression of the 1930s: lessons for today. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 429–448
Evans CL (2010) Monetary policy in a low-inflation environment: developing a state-contingent price-level target. Remarks delivered before the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s 55th economic conference on October 16. http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/speeches/2010/10_16_boston_speech.cfm
Fackler JS, Parker RE (2005) Was debt deflation operative during the Great Depression? Econ Inq 43:67–78
Fan G, He L, Hu J (2009) CPI vs. PPI: which drives which? Front Econ China 4(3):317–334
Fisher I (1913) A compensated dollar. Q J Econ 27:213–235
Fisher I (1920) Stabilizing the dollar. Macmillan, New York
Fisher I (1933) The debt-deflation theory of Great Depressions. Econometrica 1:337–357
Fisher I (1934) Stable money: a history of the movement. Adelphi, New York
Frankel J (2003) A proposed monetary regime for small commodity exporters: peg the export price. Int Finance 6:61–88
Frankel JA (2005) Peg the export price index: a proposed monetary regime for small countries. J Policy Model 27:495–508
Frankel JA (2011) Comparison of product price targeting and other monetary anchor options for commodity exporters in Latin America. Economia 12:1–57
Frankel J, Saiki A (2002) A proposal to anchor monetary policy by the price of the export commodity. J Econ Integr 17:417–448
Fregert K, Jonung L (2004) Deflation dynamics in Sweden: perceptions, expectations, and adjustment during the deflations of 1921–1923 and 1931–1933. In: Burdekin RCK, Siklos PL (eds) Deflation: current and historical perspectives. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 91–128
Friedman M (1992) Money mischief: episodes in monetary history. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York
Friedman M, Schwartz AJ (1963) A monetary history of the United States, 1857–1960. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Ge Feng [葛丰] (2017, March 20) PPI, CPI price scissor enlarged, adding difficulty to macroeconomic control [in Chinese]. China Economy Weekly [中国经济周刊], No. 11. http://www.ceweekly.cn/2017/0320/184609.shtml
Guo Sanshua [郭三化], Liu Jun [刘俊] (2015) Empirical study of the relationship between the CPI-PPI differential and the stock index [in Chinese]. J Financ Dev Res [金融发展研究] (7):72–76
Hall RE (2005) Controlling the price level. Am J Econ Sociol 64:93–112
Hamilton JD (1992) Was the deflation during the Great Depression anticipated? Evidence from the commodity futures market. Am Econ Rev 82:157–178
Hanke SH (2016) State money and bank money: lifting the fog around QE. Cent Bank, June 6. https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/state-money-bank-money-lifting-fog-aroundqe
Hatcher M, Minford P (2014) Inflation targeting vs. price-level targeting: a new survey of theory and empirics. VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal, May. http://voxeu.org/article/inflation-targeting-vs-price-level-targeting
Hatcher M, Minford P (2016) Stabilisation policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey. J Econ Surv 30:327–355
Hetzel RL (2014) Should Greece remain in the Eurozone? Econ Q 100(Third Quarter):241–278. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Hirakata N, Sudo N, Takei I, Ueda K (2016) Japan’s financial crises and lost decades. Jpn World Econ 40:31–46
Horesh N (2014) Chinese money in global context: historic junctures between 600 BCE and 2012. Stanford University Press, Stanford
Hoshi T, Kashyap AK (2015) Will the U.S. and Europe avoid a lost decade? Lessons from Japan’s postcrisis experience. IMF Econ Rev 63(1):110–163
Hutchison MM (2004) Deflation and stagnation in Japan: collapse of the monetary transmission mechanism and echo from the 1930s. In: Burdekin RCK, Siklos PL (eds) Deflation: current and historical perspectives. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 241–268
Irwin N (2017, April 26) The low-inflation world may be sticking around longer than expected. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/upshot/the-low-inflation-world-may-be-sticking-around-longer-than-expected.html
Jonung L (1979) Knut Wicksell’s norm of price stabilization and Swedish monetary policy in the 1930s. J Monet Econ 5:459–496
Kahn GA (2009) Beyond inflation targeting: should central banks target the price level? Econ Rev (Third Quarter):35–64. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Kohler A (2016) The disaster of negative rates. The Australian, April 12. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/alan-kohler/the-disaster-of-negative-rates/news-story/9d7f93a8a0e1188dff29b31b4d70f372
Liang P, Willett TD (2015) Chinese stocks during 2000–2013: bubbles and busts or fundamentals? Chin Econ 48(3):199–214
Liu Fengliang, Zhang Xiaomeng, Yu Ze (2017) High investment, structural imbalance, and the CPI & PPI deviation [in Chinese]. J Financ Res [金融研究] (2):54–69
Lu Jie, Wang Gaowang (2015) A structural explanation on the ‘divergence’ between the CPI and PPI [in Chinese]. Jingji Yanjiu/Econ Res J 50(4):136–149
Luhnow D, Druckerman P (2001, December 4) Long hailed as hero, reformer in Argentina sees his dream sour. Wall Street Journal, pp A1, A6
Mundell R (1963) Inflation and real interest. J Polit Econ 71:280–283
Munevar D (2016) Spain: the politics of austerity and deflation. Institute for New Economic Thinking, July 4. https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/spain-the-politics-of-austerity-and-deflation
Ruge-Murcia F (2014) Do inflation targeting central banks implicitly target the price level? Int J Cent Bank 10:301–326
Saxonhouse G (2005) Good deflation/bad deflation and Japanese economic recovery. IEEP 2:201–218
Spence P (2015, September 27) How Sweden’s negative interest rate experiment has turned economics on its head. The Telegraph. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11895084/How-Swedens-negative-interest-rates-experiment-has-turned-economics-on-its-head.html
Stewart H (2013, November 13) Deflation fears stalk Eurozone as Spain reports fall in prices. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/13/deflation-fears-eurozone-spain-fall-prices
Svensson LEO (2001) Price stability as a target for monetary policy: defining and maintaining price stability. In: Deutsche Bundesbank (ed) The monetary transmission process: recent developments and lessons for Europe. Palgrave, Chippenham, pp 60–102
Tang K, Wang C, Wang S (2014) China’s imported inflation and global commodity prices. Emerg Mark Finance Trade 50:162–177
Temin P (2013) The Roman market economy. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Tobin J (1965) Money and economic growth. Econometrica 33:671–684
Wan Zhao [万钊] (2015, August 10) Chinese PPI-CPI scissor enlarged, road ahead for structural adjustment will be long [in Chinese]. Reuters. http://cn.reuters.com/article/cn-ppi-colum-idCNKCS0QG0J420150811
Wedeman AH (2003) From Mao to market: rent seeking, local protectionism, and marketization in China. Cambridge University Press, New York
Wicksell K (1958) In: Lindahl E (ed) Selected papers on economic theory. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
Williams JC (2017) Preparing for the next storm: reassessing frameworks and strategies in a low R-star world. FRBSF Economic Letter 2017-13, May 8
Wu Qiong [邬琼] (2016) Computation and analysis of Chinese factor productivity [in Chinese]. State Information Center [国家信息中心], 2 Sept. http://www.sic.gov.cn/News/455/6841.htm
Zou Jingxian (2016) CPI, PPI diversion and deflation [in Chinese]. Int Econ Rev [国际经济评论] (4):129–139
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this entry
Cite this entry
Burdekin, R.C.K. (2018). Deflations in History. In: Battilossi, S., Cassis, Y., Yago, K. (eds) Handbook of the History of Money and Currency. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0622-7_49-1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0622-7_49-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-10-0622-7
Online ISBN: 978-981-10-0622-7
eBook Packages: Springer Reference Economics and FinanceReference Module Humanities and Social SciencesReference Module Business, Economics and Social Sciences