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Hydrological Challenges in Meteorological Post-processing

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Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

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Abstract

Uncertainties in the hydrometeorological forecasting chain derive from a large number of sources and are inherent to any system. One source of uncertainty is the discrepancy between the meteorological forecasts and the weather which subsequently occurs. Post-processing meteorological forecasts can reduce this discrepancy by removing systematic errors and produce more reliable, corrected forecasts. However, when the corrected NWP output is used in hydrological applications, problems may occur where consistency and correlation between meteorological variables have not been maintained. Therefore a correction that improves the forecast performance of one or more NWP outputs does not necessarily have a positive influence on the hydrological model forecasts. In this chapter the most important needs of the hydrological community in terms of meteorological post-processing are presented. The most commonly used techniques for post-processing are presented along with the pros, cons, and pitfalls in terms of their usage in hydrological applications. Finally, a few important areas of future research are identified.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK

    Fredrik Wetterhall & Paul Smith

Authors
  1. Fredrik Wetterhall
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  2. Paul Smith
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Correspondence to Fredrik Wetterhall .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

    Qingyun Duan

  2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

    Florian Pappenberger

  3. European Commission DG Joint Research Ce, Ispra, Italy

    Jutta Thielen

  4. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

    Andy Wood

  5. University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom

    Hannah L. Cloke

  6. Consulting Hydrologist, Annapolis, USA

    John C. Schaake

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Wetterhall, F., Smith, P. (2016). Hydrological Challenges in Meteorological Post-processing. In: Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Wood, A., Cloke, H., Schaake, J. (eds) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_15-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_15-1

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  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-40457-3

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