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Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting pp 151–193Cite as

Major Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) and the Future of EPS

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Abstract

Since the early 1990s, ensemble methods have been increasingly used to address predictability issues, and provide estimates of forecast uncertainties, e.g., in the form of a range of forecast scenarii or of probabilities of occurrence of weather events. Although there is an overall agreement on the main objectives of ensemble-based, probabilistic prediction, different methods have been followed to develop ensemble systems. In this chapter, we will review the methods followed at the major weather prediction centres to develop global ensembles, and we will highlight the links between the method followed and the ensemble forecast performance. The material presented in this chapter is based on the operational, global, medium-range ensembles operational at the time of writing (2014).

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

    Roberto Buizza

  2. Environmental Modeling Center/ National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), NOAA, College Park, MA, USA

    Jun Du

  3. Global Systems Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/OAR, Boulder, CO, USA

    Zoltan Toth

  4. SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MA, USA

    Dingchen Hou

Authors
  1. Roberto Buizza
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  2. Jun Du
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  3. Zoltan Toth
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  4. Dingchen Hou
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Roberto Buizza .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

    Qingyun Duan

  2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Reading, UK

    Florian Pappenberger

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Andy Wood

  4. Department of Meteorology, Reading University, Reading, UK

    Hannah L. Cloke

  5. U.S. National Weather Service (retired), Annapolis, MD, USA

    John C. Schaake

Section Editor information

  1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

    Huiling Yuan

  2. Global Systems Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA

    Zoltan Toth

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Buizza, R., Du, J., Toth, Z., Hou, D. (2019). Major Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) and the Future of EPS. In: Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Wood, A., Cloke, H., Schaake, J. (eds) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39925-1_14

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