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Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science pp 1–34Cite as

Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment on the Global Scale

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Definition of Subject

Tsunamis are infrequent events with the power to cause massive loss of life, large economic losses, and cascading effects such as destruction of critical facilities. The recurrence of truly disastrous tsunamis at any location may range from hundreds to even thousands of years. To manage the risk from these events, scientists use hazard and risk assessment to better understand the threat. Hazard assessment typically involves quantifying the temporal probability of a tsunami metric (e.g., run-up height at a coastal location) being exceeded within a given time frame. Risk assessment quantifies the probability of damage and loss to exposed assets and population by integrating the results of the hazard assessment with the vulnerability of the exposed elements to the given tsunami metric. Tsunami hazard and risk analysis cannot exploit observational data as extensively as more frequent hazards. Instead, numerical models are used to quantify the magnitude and frequency...

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (www.ecapra.org)

Abbreviations

Digital Elevation model (DEM):

A digital model of the surface of topography or elevation usually defined as height above or below mean sea level.

Exposure (Elements at risk):

Assets and/or people that are located in areas that may be impacted by a hazard.

Hazard:

A hazard is a man-made or natural phenomenon with the potential to be harmful to population society and the environment. Hazard assessment refers to efforts to characterise the location intensity and/or temporal probability of hazard events.

Hazard curve:

Distribution of a hazard intensity as a function of the temporal probability of exceedance.

Loss exceedance curve:

Distribution of a measure of loss (e.g., economic, fatality) and the probability of exceedance within a given period of time.

Loss return period:

The inverse value of the loss exceedance rate. It represents the mean time interval on which the selected loss level is expected to occur at least once.

Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD):

A relation between a measure of the size or intensity of a phenomena (for example an earthquake magnitude) and the probability of being observed within a given time interval.

Mortality rate:

The probability of a fatality given a tsunami metric.

Physical vulnerability:

Potential degree of structural and non-structural damage of an exposed element when subjected to a hazard event. For fully probabilistic risk assessments the vulnerability is represented by vulnerability functions allow calculating the monetary losses associated to them.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA):

A probabilistic description of the size and occurrence frequency quantified in terms of an exceedance probability for the values of a physical intensity or tsunami metric (e.g., flow depth).

Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Assessment (PTRA):

A probabilistic description of the size and exceedance frequency of tsunamigenic losses.

Probability density function (PDF):

The probability density function is the derivative of the total (cumulative) probability and gives the relative likelihood of all possible random variables. The integral over all possible random variables in the PDF equals unity.

Probable Maximum Loss (PML):

A probabilistic risk metric that takes account of the expected size of maximum losses associated to extreme events. It is always associated to a mean return period.

Tsunami risk:

A measure of the magnitude and frequency of losses due to tsunamis. It is calculated as the convolution between the hazard and the physical vulnerability of the exposed assets. Quantitatively the Risk is a function of (Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability). Tsunami risk can be expressed in terms of loss exceedance rates, average annual losses and probable maximum losses.

Vulnerability:

(1) The degree of loss to a given element at risk or set of such elements resulting from a hazard event of a given magnitude or intensity, usually expressed on a scale from 0 (no loss) to 1 (total loss). (2) Degree of damage caused by various levels of loading. Vulnerability may be calculated in a probabilistic or deterministic way for a single structure or a set of structures.

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Acknowledgments

A large group of scientists have worked on the global tsunami hazard and risk assessment. For this, we would like to thank our co-workers at Geoscience Australia, NGI, and CIMNE: Gareth Davies, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Harbitz, Helge Smebye, Farrokh Nadim, Omar Darío Cardona, and Gabriel A. Bernal. In addition we have received considerable support from collaborating organizations. For this we thank Andrea de Bono at UNEP/GRID Geneva for providing us the exposure dataset and for refining them for use in coastal regions, Stefano Lorito, Roberto Basili, and Jacopo Selva at INGV for providing source information for the Mediterranean, Maria Ana Baptista at IPMA for providing source information offshore Portugal, Eric Geist at USGS for providing source information for the Caribbean region, and Hong Kie Thio at AECOM for his assistance on the PTHA calculations. The authors are also indebted to Nick Horspool, formerly at Geoscience Australia, now at GNS, for his contribution to the earliest part of this work. We finally like to thank UN-ISDR, including Andrew Maskrey, Sahar Safaie, Manuela di Mauro, and Julio Serje, for their co-ordination work that made this possible, as well as for funding NGI's work leading to this paper. This paper is published with the permission of the CEO, Geoscience Australia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), Ullevål Stadion, P.O. Box 3930, 0806, Oslo, Norway

    F. Løvholt

  2. Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia

    J. Griffin

  3. Centre Internacional de Metodes Numerics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain

    M.A. Salgado-Gálvez

Authors
  1. F. Løvholt
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  2. J. Griffin
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  3. M.A. Salgado-Gálvez
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Correspondence to F. Løvholt .

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  1. Ramtech Ltd., Larkspur, California, USA

    Robert A. Meyers

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Løvholt, F., Griffin, J., Salgado-Gálvez, M. (2015). Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment on the Global Scale. In: Meyers, R. (eds) Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_642-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_642-1

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-27737-5

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference Physics and AstronomyReference Module Physical and Materials ScienceReference Module Chemistry, Materials and Physics

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