Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science pp 1–26Cite as

Volcanic Hazards Warnings: Effective Communications of

Glossary

CAS:

Complex Adaptive System

EWS:

Early Warning System

IDNDR:

International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

ISDR:

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

NIMS:

National Incident Management System

NOTAM:

Notice to Airmen

NVEWS:

National Volcano Early Warning System

USGS:

US Geological Survey

VAA:

Volcanic Ash Advisory

VAAC:

Volcanic Ash Advisory Center

VALS:

Volcano Alert Level System

VAN:

Volcanic Activity Notice

VEWS:

Volcano Early Warning System

VHP:

Volcano Hazard Program

VONA:

Volcano Observatory Notices for Aviation

Introduction: Challenges to Volcanic Crisis Communication

There have been numerous volcanic crises and disasters over the last 100 years, despite significant advances in scientific knowledge, monitoring technologies, and the development of statistical and GIS-based models. Often these disasters have resulted from a breakdown in communication that has often been the result of no, or poor, early warning systems in place, or the failure of society to...

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Bibliography

  • Alexander D (2005) Towards the development of a standard in emergency planning. Disaster Prev Manag 14:158–175

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Alexander DE (2014) Communicating earthquake risk to the public: the trial of the “L’Aquila Seven”. Nat Hazards 72:1159–1173

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Aspinall WP, Woo G, Voight B, Baxter PJ (2003) Evidence-based volcanology: application to eruption crises. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 128:273–285

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Axelrod R, Cohen MD (1999) Harnessing complexity: organizational implications of a scientific frontier. Free Press, New York/London

    Google Scholar 

  • Bankoff G (2007) Dangers to going it alone: social capital and the origins of community resilience in the Philippines. Contin Chang 22:327–355

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Bankoff G, Frerks G, Hilhorst T (2004) Mapping vulnerability: disasters, development, and people. Earthscan Publications, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Barton AH (1969) Communities in disaster: a sociological analysis of collective stress situations, 1st edn. Doubleday, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Basher R (2006) Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred. Phil Trans R Soc 364:2167–2182

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Bertalanffy LV (1975) Perspectives on general system theory: scientific-philosophical studies. G. Braziller, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Bertalanffy LV, Woodger JH (1933) [Kritische Theorie der Formbildung.] Modern theories of development. An introduction to theoretical biology ... Translated and adapted by JH Woodger. p x. 204. Oxford University Press: London

    Google Scholar 

  • Birkmann J (2006) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University, Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • Bretton RJ, Gottsmann J, Aspinall WP, Christie R (2015) Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L’Aquila trial and other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance. J Appl Volcanol 4:18

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Capra F (1996) The web of life: a new synthesis of mind and matter. Flamingo, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Cardona OD (1997) Management of the volcanic crises of Galeras volcano: social, economic and institutional aspects. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 77:313–324

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Chambers R (1997) Whose reality counts? Putting the first last. Intermediate Technology, London

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Chester DK, Marti J, Ernst GG (2005) Volcanoes, society, and culture. In: Volcanoes and the environment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 404–439

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • David PA, Greenstein S (1990) The economics of compatibility standards: An introduction to recent research. Economics of innovation and new technology 1(1-2):3–41

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Day S, Fearnley C (2015) A classification of mitigation strategies for natural hazards: implications for the understanding of interactions between mitigation strategies. Nat Hazards 79:1219–1238

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Denis H (1995) Scientists and disaster management. Disaster Prev Manag 4:14–19

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Ewert JW, Guffanti M, Murray TL (2005) An assessment of volcanic threat and monitoring capabilities in the United States: framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston

    Google Scholar 

  • Fearnley CJ (2011) Standardising the USGS volcano alert level system: acting in the context of risk, uncertainty and complexity. UCL (University College London), Great Britain

    Google Scholar 

  • Fearnley CJ (2013) Assigning a volcano alert level: negotiating uncertainty, risk, and complexity in decision-making processes. Environ Plan A 45:1891–1911

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Fearnley CJ, Beaven S (2018) Volcano alert level systems: managing the challenges of effective volcanic crisis communication. Bull Volcanol 80(5):46

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Fearnley C, McGuire W, Davies G, Twigg J (2012) Standardisation of the USGS Volcano Alert Level System (VALS): analysis and ramifications. Bull Volcanol 74:2023–2036

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Fearnley C, AEG W, Pallister J, Tilling RI (2017a) Volcano crisis communication: challenges and solutions in the 21st century. In: Observing the volcano world: volcanic crisis communication. Springer, Cham

    Google Scholar 

  • Fearnley CJ, Bird DK, Haynes K, McGuire W, Jolly G (eds) (2017b) Observing the volcano world: volcanic crisis communication advances in volcanology. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44097-2

    Google Scholar 

  • Fiske RS (1984) Volcanolgists, journalists, and the concerned local public: a take of two Citites in the Eastern Caribbean. In: Studies in geophysics: explosive volcanism: inception, evolution, and hazards. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, pp 170–1976

    Google Scholar 

  • Form W, Nostow S (1958) Community in disaster. Harper & Row, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Foster HD (1980) Disaster planning: the preservation of life and property. Springer, New York

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Fujimura JH (1987) Constructing ‘Do-Able’ problems in cancer research: articulating alignment. Soc Stud Sci 17:257–293

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gaillard JC, Dibben CJL (2008) Volcanic risk perception and beyond. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 172:163–169

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Gallopin GC, Funtowicz S, O’Connor M, Ravetz J (2001) Science for the twenty-first century: From social contract to the scientific core. Int Soc Sci J 53:219–229

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Garcia C, Fearnley CJ (2012) Evaluating critical links in early warning systems for natural hazards. Environ Hazards 11:123–137

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gardner CA, Guffanti MC (2006) U.S. geological survey’s alert notification system for volcanic activity. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Geis D (2000) By design: the disaster resistant and quality-of-life community. Nat Hazard Rev 1:151–160

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gieryn TF (1983) Boundary-work and the demarcation of science from non-science-strains and interests in professional ideologies of scientists. Am Sociol Rev 48:781–795

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gillespie DF, Perry RW (1976) An integrated systems and emergent norm approach to mass emergencies. Mass Emergencies 1(4):303–312

    Google Scholar 

  • Gillespie DF, Robards KJ, Cho S (2004) Designing safe systems: Using system dynamics to understand complexity. Nat Hazards Rev 5:82–88

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gladwin H, Lazo JK, Morrow BH, Peacock WG, Willoughby HE (2009) Social science research needs for the hurricane forecast and warning system. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:25–29

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Glantz MH (2004) Usable science 8: early warning systems: do’s and don’ts, report of workshop 20–23 Oct 2003, Shanghai

    Google Scholar 

  • Glantz MH (2009) Heads up! Early warning systems for climate, water and weather-related hazards. United Nations University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Hall ML (1990) Chronology of the principal scientific and governmental actions leading up to the November 13, 1985 eruption of Nevado-Del-Ruiz. Colombia J Volcanol Geothermal Res 42:101–115

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Hall PH (2007) Early warning systems: reframing the discussion. Aust J Emerg Manag 22:32–36

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanseth O, Monteiro E, Hatling M (1996) Developing information infrastructure: the tension between standardization and flexibility science. Technol Hum Values 21:407–426

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Haynes K (2008) Volcanic isnad in crises: investigating environmental uncertainity and the complexities it brings. Aust J Emerg Manag 21:21–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Haynes K, Barclay J, Pidgeon N (2008a) The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis. Bull Volcanol 70:605–621

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Haynes K, Barclay J, Pidgeon NF (2008b) Whose reality counts? Factors affecting the perception of volcanic risk. J Volcanol Geothermal Res 172:259–272

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Hemaspaandra LA, Ogihara M (2001) The complexity theory companion. Springer, New York

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitt K (1983) Interpretations of calamity from the viewpoint of human ecology. Allen & Unwin, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Hill DP, California. Division of Mines and Geology., Geological Survey (U.S.) (2002) Response plan for volcano hazards in the Long Valley Caldera and Mono Craters region, California U.S. Geological Survey bulletin 2185

    Google Scholar 

  • Hill DP, Mangan MT, McNutt SR (2017) Volcanic unrest and hazard communication in long valley volcanic region, California

    Google Scholar 

  • Hogle LF (1995) Standardization across non-standard domains: the case of organ procurement science. Technol Hum Values 20:482–500

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • IFRC (2009) World disasters report 2009- focus on early warning, early action. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelman I, Kelman I (2017) Linking disaster risk reduction, climate change, and the sustainable development goals. Disaster Prev Manag Int J 26:254–258

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Kelman I, Mather TA (2008) Living with volcanoes: the sustainable livelihoods approach for volcano-related opportunities. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 172:189–198

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Keys H, Green P (2010) Mitigation of volcanic risks at Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand. In: Proceedings of the mountain risks international conference. Firenze, pp 485–490

    Google Scholar 

  • Kilburn CRJ (2003) Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 125:271–289

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Kim DH (1994) Systems thinking tools: a user’s reference guide. Toolbox reprint series. Pegasus Communications, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Koehler GA (1995) What disaster response management can learn from chaos theory: conference proceedings. In: Koehler GA (ed) What disaster response management can learn from chaos theory, 2001. California Research Bureau, California State Library, Sacramento, pp 293–308

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuppers AN, Zschau J (2002) Early warning systems for natural disaster reduction. In: Early warning systems for natural disaster reduction. Springer, Springer-Verlag Heidelberg, pp 817–821

    Google Scholar 

  • Kurtz CF, Snowden DJ (2003) The new dynamics of strategy: sense-making in a complex and complicated world. IBM Syst J 42:462–483

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Leonard GS, Johnston DM, Paton D, Christianson A, Becker J, Keys H (2008) Developing effective warning systems: ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano. N Z J Volcanol Geotherm Res 172:199–215

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Malone S (2008) A warning about early warning. Seismol Res Lett 79:603–604. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.79.5.603

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Maskrey A (2011) Revisiting community-based disaster risk management. Environ Hazards 10:42–52. https://doi.org/10.3763/ehaz.2011.0005

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • McEntire DA (2004) The status of emergency management theory: issues, barriers, and recommendations for improved scholarship. In: Paper presented at the FEMA higher education conference, Emmitsburg, 8th June

    Google Scholar 

  • McEntire DA, Fuller C (2002) The need for a holistic theoretical approach: an examination from the El Nino disasters in Peru. Disaster Prev Manag 11:128–140

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Mileti D (1999) Disasters by design: a reassessment of natural hazards in the United States. Joseph Henry Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Mileti DS, Sorenson JH (1990) Communication of emergency public warnings: a social science perspective and state-of-the -art assessment. Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell M (2009) Complexity: a guided tour. Oxford University Press, Oxford/New York

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Moran SC et al (2008) Instrumentation recommendations for volcano monitoring at US volcanoes under the national volcano early warning system. Geological Survey (US)

    Google Scholar 

  • Newhall C, Solidum RU (2017) Volcanic hazard communication at Pinatubo from 1991 to 2015

    Google Scholar 

  • Newhall C et al (1999) Professional conduct of scientists during volcanic crises. Bull Volcanol 60:323–334

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Nowotny H (2005) The increase of complexity and its reduction: emergent interfaces between the natural sciences, humanities and social sciences. Theory Cult Soc 22:15–31

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Nowotny H, Scott P, Gibbons M (2001) Re-thinking science: knowledge and the public in an age of uncertainty. Polity Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Oppenheimer C (2011) Eruptions that shook the world. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Papale P (2017) Rational volcanic hazard forecasts and the use of volcanic alert levels. J Appl Volcanol 6:13

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Paraskevas A (2006) Crisis management or crisis response system? A complexity science approach to organizational crises. Manag Decis 44:892–907

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Paton D, Johnston D, Houghton BF (1998) Organisational response to a volcanic eruption. Disaster Prev Manag 7:5–13

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson DW, Tilling RI (1993) Interactions between sceintists, civil authorities and the public at hazardous volcanoes. In: Kilburn CRJ, Luongo G (eds) Active lavas. UCL Press, London, pp 339–365

    Google Scholar 

  • Piepers I (2006) The International System: “At the Edge of Chaos”. arXiv preprint nlin/0611062.

    Google Scholar 

  • Potter SH, Jolly GE, Neall VE, Johnston DM, Scott BJ (2014) Communicating the status of volcanic activity: revising New Zealand’s volcanic alert level system. J Appl Volcanol 3:13

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Potter SH, Scott BJ, Fearnley CJ, Leonard GS, Gregg CE (2017) Challenges and benefits of standardising early warning systems: a case study of New Zealand’s volcanic alert level system

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramalingam B, Jones H, Reba T, Young J (2008) Exploring the science of complexity: ideas and implications for development and humanitarian efforts. In: Working paper 285. Overseas Development Institute (ODI), London

    Google Scholar 

  • Ravetz IR (1999) What is post-normal science. Futures-the Journal of Forecasting Planning and Policy, 31(7):647–654

    Google Scholar 

  • Ronan KR, Paton D, Johnston DM, Houghton BF (2000) Managing societal uncertainty in volcanic hazards: a multidisciplinary approach. Disaster Prev Manag 9:339–349

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Sardar Z, Ravetz JR (1994) Complexity: fad or future? Futures 26:563–567

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Scarth A (2002) La catastrophe Mount Pel’e and the destruction of Saint-Pierre. Terra Publishing, Harpenden

    Google Scholar 

  • Senge PM (1990) The fifth discipline: the art and practice of the learning organization, 1st edn. Doubleday/Currency, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Sennert SS, Klemetti EW, Bird DK (2015) Role of social media and networking in volcanic crises and communication

    Google Scholar 

  • Sigurdsson H, Houghton B, McNutt S, Rymer H, Stix J (2015) The encyclopedia of volcanoes. Elsevier, San Diego

    Google Scholar 

  • Slovic P (2000) The perception of risk. Risk, society, and policy series. Earthscan Pub, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Snowden D (2005) Strategy in the context of uncertainty. Handb Bus Strateg 6:47–54

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Solana MC, Kilburn CRJ, Rolandi G (2008) Communicating eruption and hazard forecasts on Vesuvius. South Ital J Volcanol Geotherm Res 172:308–314

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Sparks RSJ, Aspinall W (2004) Volcanic activity; frontiers and challenges in forecasting, prediction and risk assessment. In: Stephen R, Sparks J (eds) The state of the planet; frontiers and challenges in geophysics. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Stacey RD (1996) Complexity and creativity in organizations. Berrett-Koehler, San Francisco

    Google Scholar 

  • Stirling A (2007) Risk, precaution and science: towards a more constructive policy debate: talking point on the precautionary principle. EMBO Rep 8(4):309–315

    CrossRef  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Susman P, O’Keefe P, Wisner B (1983) Global disasters, a radical interpretation. In: Hewitt K (ed) Interpretations of calamity: from the viewpoint of human ecology. Allen & Unwin, London, pp 263–283

    Google Scholar 

  • Swanson DA, Casadevall TJ, Dzurisin D, Holcomb RT, Newhall CG, Malone SD, Weaver CS (1985) Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975–1984. J Geodyn 3:397–423

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Tayag J, Insauriga S, Ringor A, Belo M, Newhall CG, Punongbayan RS (1996) People’s reposnse to eruption warning: the Pinatubo expereince, 1991–92. In: Fire and mud: eruptions and lahars of mount Pinatubo, Phillippines. University of Washington Press, Seattle/London, pp 87–99

    Google Scholar 

  • Telford, J, J Cosgrave and R Houghton (2006) Joint Evaluation of the international response to the Indian Ocean tsunami: Synthesis Report. London: Tsunami Evaluation Coalition

    Google Scholar 

  • Thieren M (2005) Asian tsunami: death-toll addiction and its downside. Bull World Health Org 83:82

    Google Scholar 

  • Tierney KJ, Dynes RR (1994) In: Dynes RR, Tierney KJ (eds) Disasters, collective behavior, and social organization. University of Delaware Press/Associated University Presses, Newark, London/Cranbury

    Google Scholar 

  • Tobin GA, Whiteford LM (2002) Community resilience and volcano hazard: the eruption of Tungurahua and evacuation of the Faldas in Ecuador. Disasters 26:28–48

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Twigg J (2004) Disaster risk reduction: mitigation and prepardness in development and emergency programming. HPN

    Google Scholar 

  • UN ISDR (2004) Yokohama strategy and plan of action for a safer world: guidelines for natural disaster prevention, preparedness and mitigation. In: World conference on disaster reduction, Yokohama, 23–27 May 1994

    Google Scholar 

  • UN ISDR (2005) Hyogo framework for action 2005–2015: building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters

    Google Scholar 

  • UN ISDR (2006a) Early warning-from concept to action-the conclusions. In: Third international conference on early warning: from concept to action, Bonn, 27–29 Mar 2006

    Google Scholar 

  • UN ISDR (2006b) Early warning – from concept to action: the conclusions of the third international conference on early warning (EWC III). In Bonn, 27–29 Mar 2006, p 32

    Google Scholar 

  • UN ISDR PPEW (2006) Global survey of early warning systems: an assessment of capacities, gaps and opportunities toward building a comprehensive global early warning system for all natural hazards

    Google Scholar 

  • UNDRO (1990) Mitigating natural disasters: phenomena, effects and options. United Nations Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • UNISDR (2007) Terminology. http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology-letter-m. Accessed 27 Feb 2014

  • Urry J (2005a) The complexities of the global. Theory Cult Soc 22:235–254

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Urry J (2005b) The complexity turn theory. Cult Soc 22:1–14

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Velasco MLC (2000) Mt Galeras: activities and lessons to be learned philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London series. Math Phys Eng Sci 358:1607–1617

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Voight B (1990) The 1985 Nevado-Del-Ruiz volcano catastrophe-anatomy and retrospection. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 42:151–188

    CrossRef  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • White D (1995) Application of systems thinking to risk management: a review of the literature. Manag Decis 33:35–45

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • White GF, Haas JE (1975) Assessment of research on natural hazards. MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Winson AE, Costa F, Newhall CG, Woo G (2014) An analysis of the issuance of volcanic alert levels during volcanic crises. J Appl Volcanol 3:14

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Wisner B (2004) At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability, and disasters, 2nd edn. Routledge, London/New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Wisner B, Gaillard JC, Kelman I (2012) Handbook of hazards and disaster risk reduction and management. Routledge, New York

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Wynne B (1996) May the sheep safely graze? A reflexive view of the expert-lay knowledge divide. In: Lash S, Szerszynski B, Wynne B (eds) Risk, environment and modernity: towards a new ecology. Sage, London, pp 44–83

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhong Y, Low SP (2009) Managing crisis response communication in construction projects – from a complexity perspective. Disaster Prev Manag 18:270–282

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Science and Technology Studies, University College London, London, UK

    C. J. Fearnley

Authors
  1. C. J. Fearnley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to C. J. Fearnley .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Ramtech Ltd., Larkspur, CA, USA

    Dr. Robert A. Meyers

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 Springer Science+Business Media LLC

About this entry

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this entry

Fearnley, C.J. (2019). Volcanic Hazards Warnings: Effective Communications of. In: Meyers, R. (eds) Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_634-1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_634-1

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-27737-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-27737-5

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference Physics and AstronomyReference Module Physical and Materials Science

search

Navigation