Probabilistic Hazard Assessment

Definition

Evaluation of the severity of a process or event that has the potential to cause damage to property or harm to life and health based on the realization that the severity can range from a level that causes slight damage or harm to a level that causes extensive damage or harm at a particular place.

Synonyms

Annualized frequency of a given severity; Severity for a given average return period

Context

Probabilistic methods were introduced in the late 1960s (Cornell 1968) and expanded in the 1980s to characterize hazards associated with extremely rare earthquakes for design of nuclear power facilities that could have extremely severe consequences if they were damaged (Kemmerer 2013; U.S. NRC 2017). Common challenges among natural hazard assessments (Kemmerer 2013) include (1) limited availability of measurements or observations of extremely large events; (2) large uncertainties in return periods of rare events; (3) data can be subject to alternative interpretations, requiring...