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Impact of Climate Change on Growing Season in Nigeria: Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) as Assessment and Adaptation Tool

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Handbook of Climate Change Resilience

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Abstract

Information on climate over many years shows signals of a changing climate in Nigeria and generally on a global scale caused by temperature increase. Climate change effects are increasing, making it necessary to appropriate actions informed by sound climate knowledge to mitigate the effect of these changes. This is achievable by integrating knowledge of climate change into local, national, and global policy processes. This chapter presents an analysis of temperature and rainfall data collected from 41 synoptic stations of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) spread across Nigeria between 1981 and 2017. It also looks at the effectiveness of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency’s Seasonal Rainfall prediction (SRP) as a climate Smart Agricultural tool to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change in Nigeria. The analysis showed that there is an increasing trend in annual mean maximum and minimum temperature anomalies. There has been a persistent increase in the maximum temperature anomalies especially in the past five (5) consecutive years (2013–2017). Rainfall analysis of recent years depicts positive standardized anomalies of above 0.5. An assessment of the SRP tool showed improvement and increase in skill of performance of the model in predicting seasonal rainfall onset, cessation, length of season, and annual rainfall amount across the country from 2012 to 2015, a period for which data was available. The skill was determined by calculating the percentage of forecast accuracy at 95% confidence level for 41 stations across the country. The analysis also shows that NiMet SRP could predict onset and cessation dates of rainfall with a skill above 70%, followed by length of season at a skill of 60% and the lowest skill of 51% in prediction of rainfall amount. The correlation between forecast and observed is 90% for all the rainfall parameters. The good skills suggest that NiMet SRP could serve as a useful adaptation tool to mitigate the effect of climate change on Agriculture over Nigeria and therefore recommended for use by stakeholders.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Weather Forecasting and Climate Research Centre, Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Abuja, Nigeria

    Paul Akeh Ugbah, Olumide Olaniyan, Sabastine Dekaa Francis & Adamu James

Authors
  1. Paul Akeh Ugbah
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  2. Olumide Olaniyan
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  3. Sabastine Dekaa Francis
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  4. Adamu James
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Olumide Olaniyan .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. FTZ-NK, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences , Hamburg, Germany

    Walter Leal Filho

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Ugbah, P.A., Olaniyan, O., Francis, S.D., James, A. (2019). Impact of Climate Change on Growing Season in Nigeria: Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) as Assessment and Adaptation Tool. In: Leal Filho, W. (eds) Handbook of Climate Change Resilience. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71025-9_183-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71025-9_183-1

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  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-71025-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-71025-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference Earth and Environm. ScienceReference Module Physical and Materials ScienceReference Module Earth and Environmental Sciences

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