Skip to main content

Driver Intent Inference and Risk Assessment

  • Reference work entry
  • First Online:

Abstract

Both for driver assistance systems and highly automated driving, the in-depth understanding of traffic situations becomes more and more important. From the viewpoint of a warning driver assistance system, the authors analyze the requirements and challenges of risk assessment and driver intent inference in complex urban scenarios and provide a systematic overview of existing approaches. Furthermore, the ability of each approach to deal with more than two alternative maneuvers, partially observable feature sets, and potential interaction between traffic participants is evaluated. It is found that generative approaches and Bayesian networks in particular show great potential for driver intent inference, but it is also argued that more effort should be put into modeling the driver’s situation awareness. Based on four concrete examples, the benefits of awareness-based situation analysis are demonstrated with respect to the avoidance of unnecessary warnings, the detection of occluded traffic participants, further improvement of the driver intent inference itself, as well as the prediction of the future trajectories of relevant traffic participants.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   799.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD   999.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • Althoff M, Althoff D (2009) Safety verification of autonomous vehicles for coordinated evasive maneuvers. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV)

    Google Scholar 

  • Althoff M, Mergel A (2011) Comparison of Markov chain abstraction and Monte Carlo simulation for the safety assessment of autonomous cars. Transact Intell Transport Syst 12(4):1237–1247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Althoff M, Stursberg O, Buss M (2007) Safety assessment of autonomous cars using verification techniques. In: Proceedings of the American control conference, pp 4154–4159

    Google Scholar 

  • Althoff M, Stursberg O, Buss M (2009) Model-based probabilistic collision detection in autonomous driving. Transact Intell Transport Syst 10(2):299–310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ammoun S, Nashashibi F (2009) Real time trajectory prediction for collision risk estimation between vehicles. In: Proceedings of the 5th conference on intelligent computer communication and processing (ICCP), pp 417–422

    Google Scholar 

  • Aoude GS, Luders BD, Lee KKH, Levine DS, How JP (2010) Threat assessment design for driver assistance system at intersections. In: Proceedings of the 13th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 1855–1862

    Google Scholar 

  • Aoude G, Desaraju V (2012) Driver behavior classification at intersections and validation on large naturalistic data set. Transact Intell Transport Syst 13(2):724–736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Armand A, Filliat D, Ibanez-Guzmán J (2013) Modelling stop intersection approaches using Gaussian processes. In: Proceedings of the 16th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 1650–1655

    Google Scholar 

  • Berndt H, Dietmayer K (2009) Driver intention inference with vehicle onboard sensors. In: Proceedings of the international conference on vehicular electronics and safety (ICVES), pp 102–107

    Google Scholar 

  • Berthelot A, Tamke A, Dang T, Breuel G (2011) Handling uncertainties in criticality assessment. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 571–576

    Google Scholar 

  • Boury-Brisset AC, Tourigny N (2000) Knowledge capitalisation through case bases and knowledge engineering for road safety analysis. Knowledge-Based Syst 13(5):297–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brännström M, Coelingh E, Sjoberg J (2010) Model-based threat assessment for avoiding arbitrary vehicle collisions. Transact Intell Transport Syst 11(3):658–669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brännström M, Sandblom F, Hammarstrand L (2013) A probabilistic framework for decision-making in collision avoidance systems. Transact Intell Transport Syst 14(2):637–648

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brechtel S, Gindele T, Dillmann R (2001) Probabilistic MDP behavior planning for cars. In: Proceedings of the 14th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 1537–1542

    Google Scholar 

  • Broadhurst A, Baker S, Kanade T (2005) Monte Carlo road safety reasoning. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 319–324

    Google Scholar 

  • Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung (2011) Verkehrssicherheitsprogramm 2011 vom 28.10.2011

    Google Scholar 

  • Cheng S, Trivedi M (2006) Turn-intent analysis using body pose for intelligent driver assistance. Pervasive Comput 5(4):28–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chinea A, Parent M (2007) Risk assessment algorithms based on recursive neural networks. In: Proceedings of the international joint conference on neural networks, pp 1434–1440

    Google Scholar 

  • Dagli I, Brost M, Breuel G (2003) Action recognition and prediction for driver assistance systems using dynamic belief networks. In: Agent technologies, infrastructures, tools, and applications for eservices. Springer, Berlin, pp 179–194

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Dagli I, Reichardt D (2002) Motivation-based approach to behavior prediction. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), IEEE, pp 227–233

    Google Scholar 

  • Deutscher Verkehrssicherheitsrat e. V. (2009) Was leisten Fahrerassistenzsysteme (how do driver assistance systems help)?

    Google Scholar 

  • Doshi A, Trivedi M (2008) A comparative exploration of eye gaze and head motion cues for lane change intent prediction. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 49–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Doshi A, Trivedi M (2011) Tactical driver behavior prediction and intent inference: a review. In: Proceedings of the 14th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 1892–1897

    Google Scholar 

  • Eichhorn A, Werling M, Zahn P, Schramm D (2013) Maneuver prediction at intersections using cost-to-go gradients. In: Proceedings of the international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 112–117

    Google Scholar 

  • Eidehall A, Petersson L (2008) Statistical threat assessment for general road scenes using Monte Carlo sampling. Transact Intell Transport Syst 9(1):137–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Endsley MR (1995) Toward a theory of situation awareness in dynamic systems. Human Factors 37:32–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • European Transport Safety Council (2013) Road safety manifesto for the European parliament elections May 2014

    Google Scholar 

  • Firl J (2011) Probabilistic maneuver prediction in traffic scenarios. In: Proceedings of the European conference on mobile robots (ECMR)

    Google Scholar 

  • Gindele T, Brechtel S, Dillmann R (2010) A probabilistic model for estimating driver behaviors and vehicle trajectories in traffic environments. In: Proceedings of the 13th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 1625–1631

    Google Scholar 

  • Gindele T, Brechtel S, Dillmann R (2013) Learning context sensitive behavior models from observations for predicting traffic situations. In: Proceedings of the 16th International conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 1764–1771

    Google Scholar 

  • Gipps P (1981) A behavioural car-following model for computer simulation. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, vol. I, no. 2, pp 105–111

    Google Scholar 

  • Graf R, Deusch H, Fritzsche M, Dietmayer K (2013) A learning concept for behavior prediction in traffic situations. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 672–677

    Google Scholar 

  • Greene D, Liu J, Reich J, Hirokawa Y, Shinagawa A, Ito H, Mikami T (2011) An efficient computational architecture for a collision early-warning system for vehicles, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Transact Intell Transport Syst 12(4):942–953

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hermes C, Wöhler C, Schenk K, Kummert F (2009) Long-term vehicle motion prediction. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 652–657

    Google Scholar 

  • Herrmann S, Schroven F (2012) Situation analysis for driver assistance systems at urban intersections. In: Proceedings of the international conference on vehicular electronics and safety (ICVES), pp 151–156

    Google Scholar 

  • Hillenbrand J, Spieker AM, Kroschel K (2006) A multilevel collision mitigation approach – its situation assessment, decision making, and performance tradeoffs. Transact Intell Transport Syst 7(4):528–540

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hochstädter A, Zahn P, Breuer K (2000) Ein universelles Fahrermodell mit den Einsatzbeispielen Verkehrssimulation und Fahrsimulator (A universal driver model with the applications in traffic simulation and driving simulators). Fahrzeug- und Motorentechnik, 9. Aachener Kolloquim

    Google Scholar 

  • Käfer E, Hermes C, Wöhler C, Ritter H, Kummert F (2010) Recognition of situation classes at road intersections. In: Proceedings of the international conference on robotics and automation (ICRA), pp 3960–3965

    Google Scholar 

  • Kasper D, Weidl G, Dang T, Breuel G, Tamke A, Rosenstiel W (2011) Object-oriented bayesian networks for detection of lane change maneuvers. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 673–678

    Google Scholar 

  • Klanner F (2008) Entwicklung eines kommunikationsbasierten Querverkehrsassistenten im Fahrzeug (Development of a communication-based onboard intersection assistent). Dissertation, Technische Universität, Darmstadt

    Google Scholar 

  • Koller D (1997) Object-oriented Bayesian networks. In: Proceedings of the 13th annual conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence (UAI), pp 302–313

    Google Scholar 

  • Kretschmer M, König L, Neubeck J, Wiedemann J (2006) Erkennung und Prädiktion des Fahrerverhaltens während eines Überholvorgangs (Recognition and prediction oft he driver behavior during overtaking). In: Proceedings of the 2. Tagung Aktive Sicherheit durch Fahrerassistenz, Garching

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar P, Perrollaz M, Laugier C (2013) Learning-based approach for online lane change intention prediction. In; Proceedings of the Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV)

    Google Scholar 

  • Land M, Lee D (1994) Where do we look when we steer. Nature 369:742–744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laugier C, Paromtchik IE, Perrollaz M, Yong M, Yoder JD, Tay C, Mekhnacha K, Nègre A (2011) Probabilistic analysis of dynamic scenes and collision risks assessment to improve driving safety. ITSM, October 2011, pp 4–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Lefèvre S, Ibañez-Guzmán J, Laugier C (2011) Context-based estimation of driver intent at road intersections. In: Proceedings of the symposium on computational intelligence in vehicles and transportation systems, pp 583–588

    Google Scholar 

  • Lefèvre S, Laugier C (2011) Exploiting map information for driver intention estimation at road intersections. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 583–588

    Google Scholar 

  • Lefèvre S, Laugier C, Ibañez-Guzmàn J (2012) Risk assessment at road intersections: comparing intention and expectation. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 165–171

    Google Scholar 

  • Lidström K, Larsson T (2008) Model-based estimation of driver intentions using particle filtering. In: Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 1177–1182

    Google Scholar 

  • Liebner M, Klanner F, Stiller C (2012a) Der Fahrer im Mittelpunkt – Eye Tracking als Schlüssel zum mitdenkenden Fahrzeug (Focussing the driver – eye tracking as a key to intelligent vehicles)? In: Proceedings of the 8th workshop Fahrerassistenzsysteme, UniDAS e.V., Walting, pp 87–96

    Google Scholar 

  • Liebner M, Baumann M, Klanner F, Stiller C (2012b) Driver intent inference at urban intersections using the intelligent driver model. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 1162–1167

    Google Scholar 

  • Liebner M, Klanner F, Baumann M, Ruhhammer C, Stiller C (2013a) Velocity-based driver intent inference at urban intersections in the presence of preceding vehicles. ITSM 5(2):10–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Liebner M, Ruhhammer C, Klanner F, Stiller C (2013b) Generic driver intent inference based on parametric models. In: Proceedings of the 16th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 268–275

    Google Scholar 

  • Liebner M (2015), Fahrerabsichtungserkennung und Risikobewertung für warnende Fahrerassistenzsysteme. Dissertation, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie

    Google Scholar 

  • Lytrivis P, Thomaidis G, Tsogas M, Amditis A (2001) An advanced cooperative path prediction algorithm for safety applications in vehicular networks. Trans Intell Trans Syst 12(3):669–679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mabuchi R, Yamada K (2011) Study on driver-intent estimation at yellow traffic signal by using driving simulator. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV)

    Google Scholar 

  • McCall J, Trivedi M (2007) Driver behavior and situation aware brake assistance for intelligent vehicles. Proceedings of the IEEE 95(2):374–387

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCall J, Wipf D, Trivedi M, Rao B (2007) Lane change intent analysis using robust operators and sparse bayesian learning. Trans Intell Trans Syst 8(3):431–440

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyer-Delius D (2009) Probabilistic situation recognition for vehicular traffic scenarios. In: Proceedings of the international conference on robotics and automation (ICRA), pp 459–464

    Google Scholar 

  • Morris B, Doshi A, Trivedi M (2011) Lane change intent prediction for driver assistance: on-road design and evaluation. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 895–901

    Google Scholar 

  • Naujoks F, Grattenthaler H, Neukum A, (2012) Zeitliche Gestaltung effektiver Fahrerinformationen zur Kollisionsvermeidung auf der Basis kooperativer Perzeption (Timing of effective driver information for collision avoidance based on cooperative perception). Proceedings of the 8th Workshop Fahrerassistenzsysteme, UniDAS e.V., Walting, pp 107–117

    Google Scholar 

  • Oliver N, Pentland A (2000) Graphical models for driver behavior recognition in a SmartCar. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 7–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Ortiz G, Fritsch J, Kummert F, Gepperth A (2011) Behavior prediction at multiple time-scales in inner-city scenarios. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 1066–1071

    Google Scholar 

  • Ortiz G, Kummert F, Schmudderich J (2012) Prediction of driver behavior on a limited sensory setting. In: Proceedings of the 15th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 638–643

    Google Scholar 

  • Perl J (1988) Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Francisco

    Google Scholar 

  • Petrich D, Dang T, Kasper D, Breuel G, Stiller C (2013) Map-based long term motion prediction for vehicles in traffic environments. In: Proceedings of the 16th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp. 2166–2172

    Google Scholar 

  • Psorakis I, Damoulas T, Girolami MA (2010) Multiclass relevance vector machines: sparsity and accuracy. Trans Neural 21(10):1588–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rabiner L (1989) A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition. Proc IEEE 77(2):257–286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahman M, Chowdhury M, Xie Y, He Y (2013) Review of microscopic lane-changing models and future research opportunities. Trans Intell Trans Syst 14(4):1942–1956

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reichel M, Botsch M, Rauschecker R, Siedersberger KH, Maurer M (2010) Situation aspect modelling and classification using the scenario based random forest algorithm for convoy merging situations. In: Proceedings of the 13th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 360–366

    Google Scholar 

  • Salim FD, Loke SW, Rakotonirainy A, Srinivasan B, Krishnaswamy S (2007) Collision pattern modeling and real-time collision detection at road intersections. In: Proceedings of the intelligent transportation systems conference, pp 161–166

    Google Scholar 

  • Salvucci DD (2006) Modeling driver behavior in a cognitive architecture. Hum Factors 48(2):362–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schendzielorz T, Mathias P, Busch F (2013) Infrastructure-based vehicle maneuver estimation at urban intersections. In: Proceedings of the 16th international conference on intelligent transportation systems (ITSC), pp 1442–1447

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider J, Wilde A, Naab K (2008) Probabilistic approach for modeling and identifying driving situations. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 343–348

    Google Scholar 

  • Schroven F, Giebel T (2009) Fahrerintentionserkennung für Fahrerassistenzsysteme. VDI-FVT-Jahrbuch, pp 54–58

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwering C, Lakemeyer G (2013) Spatio-temporal reasoning about traffic scenarios. In: Proceedings of the 11th international symposium on logical formalizations of commonsense reasoning

    Google Scholar 

  • Statistisches Bundesamt (2014a) 7.2% weniger Todesopfer auf deutschen Straßen im Jahr 2013 (7.2% less fatalities on German roads in 2013)

    Google Scholar 

  • Statistisches Bundesamt (2014b) Verkehrsunfälle Fachserie 8 Reihe 7 Jahr 2013 (road accidents edn. 8.7/2013).

    Google Scholar 

  • Tamke A, Dang T, Breuel G (2011) A flexible method for criticality assessment in driver assistance systems. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 697–702

    Google Scholar 

  • Tipping M (2001) Sparse Bayesian learning and the relevance vector machine. J Mach Learn Res 1:211–244

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Tran Q, Firl J (2012) A probabilistic discriminative approach for situation recognition in traffic scenarios. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 147–152

    Google Scholar 

  • Tran Q, Firl J (2013) Modelling of traffic situations at urban intersections with probabilistic non-parametric regression. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 334–339

    Google Scholar 

  • Treiber M, Helbing D (2002) Realistische Mikrosimulation von Straßenverkehr mit einem einfachen Modell (Realistic micro-simulation of road traffic with a simple model). 16. Symposium Simulationstechnik ASIM, p 80

    Google Scholar 

  • Vacek S (2008) Videogestützte Umfelderfassung zur Interpretation von Verkehrssituationen für kognitive Automobile (video supported environment perception for interpretation of traffic situations for cognitive automobiles). Dissertation, Universität Karlsruhe (TH)

    Google Scholar 

  • Vacek S, Gindele T, Zöllner JM, Dillmann R (2007) Situation classification for cognitive automobiles using case-based reasoning. In: Proceedings of the intelligent vehicles symposium (IV), pp 704–709

    Google Scholar 

  • Weidl G, Singhal V, Petrich D, Kasper D, Wedel A, Breuel G (2013) Collision detection and warning at road intersections using an object oriented bayesian network. In: Proceedings of the 9th international conference on intelligent computer communication and processing (ICCP)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Roessler B (2009) Situation analysis and adaptive risk assessment for intersection safety systems in advanced assisted driving. In: Dillmann R, Beyerer J, Stiller C, Zöllner JM, Gindele T (eds) Autonome mobile systeme. Springer, Berlin, pp 249–258

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Martin Liebner .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this entry

Cite this entry

Liebner, M., Klanner, F. (2016). Driver Intent Inference and Risk Assessment. In: Winner, H., Hakuli, S., Lotz, F., Singer, C. (eds) Handbook of Driver Assistance Systems. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12352-3_39

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics