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Exploration Risk Analysis in Petroleum Plays and Prospects

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  • First Online:
Encyclopedia of Petroleum Geoscience

Part of the book series: Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series ((EESS))

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Definition

In the context of petroleum geoscience, risk analysis is the application of systematic geological techniques to understand the probability of success (discovery of movable hydrocarbons upon drilling) in a play, prospect, or group of prospects. One methodology to do this is play fairway analysis. Exploration risking can also be applied to the estimation and distribution of yet-to-find resources in a play or basin.

Introduction

Despite a long history of use in disciplines such as engineering and economics, probabilistic analysis has only seen wide application in petroleum exploration since the 1980s. Prior to this time, exploration was usually conducted in a deterministic way, using, for example, a single prospect outcome and no estimated probability of success. Systematic application throughout the industry became the norm in the 1990s, largely due to the industry turning its attention to more difficult prospects and the perceived destruction in value resulting from drilling...

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Energy & Geoscience Institute (EGI), University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA

    A. G. Doré

  2. Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK

    A. J. Fraser

Authors
  1. A. G. Doré
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  2. A. J. Fraser
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. G. Doré .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Energy and Geoscience Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA

    Rasoul Sorkhabi

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Doré, A.G., Fraser, A.J. (2021). Exploration Risk Analysis in Petroleum Plays and Prospects. In: Sorkhabi, R. (eds) Encyclopedia of Petroleum Geoscience. Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02330-4_227-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02330-4_227-1

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  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-02330-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-02330-4

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference Earth and Environm. ScienceReference Module Physical and Materials ScienceReference Module Earth and Environmental Sciences

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