Glossary
- Photovoltaics (PV):
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PV is a method of generating electrical power by converting solar radiation into direct current electricity using semiconductors that exhibit the photovoltaic effect and are called solar cells.
- Photovoltaic capacity:
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The capacity of PV systems is given in Wp (watt peak). This characterizes the maximum DC (direct current) output of a solar module under standard test conditions, i.e., at a solar radiation of 1000 W/m2 and at a temperature of 25 °C.
- Photovoltaic electricity generation:
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The actual electricity generation potential of a photovoltaic electricity system depends on the solar radiation and the system performance, which depends on the BOS component losses. For a solar radiation between 600 and 2,200 kWh/m2 and year a standard PV system can produce between 450 and 1,650 kWh of AC electricity.
- Photovoltaic module and photovoltaic system:
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A number of solar cells form a solar “Module” or “Panel,” which can then be combined to solar systems, ranging from a few Watts of electricity output to multi Megawatt power stations.
- Photovoltaic (PV) energy system:
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A PV system is composed of three subsystems:
• On the power-generation side, a subsystem of PV devices (cells, modules, arrays) converts sunlight to direct-current (DC) electricity.
• On the power-use side, the subsystem consists mainly of the load, which is the application of the PV electricity.
• Between these two, we need a third subsystem that enables the PV-generated electricity to be properly applied to the load. This third subsystem is often called the “balance of system,” or BOS.
- Polysilicon (or polycrystalline silicon):
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A material consisting of small silicon crystals.
- Feed-in tariff:
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A feed-in tariff is a policy mechanism which obliges regional or national electric grid utilities to buy renewable electricity (electricity generated from renewable sources, such as solar power, wind power, wave and tidal power, biomass, hydropower, and geothermal power), from all eligible participants at a fixed price over a fixed period of time.
- Power Purchase Agreement (PPA):
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A PPA is a legal contract between an electricity generator (provider) and a power purchaser (host).
- Solar cell production capacities:
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In the case of wafer silicon based solar cells only the manufacturing capacity for cells. In the case of thin-films, the complete integrated module manufacturing capacity is given. Only those companies which actually produce the active circuit (solar cell) are counted. Companies which purchase these circuits and make cells are not counted.
Concentrating photovoltaics (CPV) is a technology, where light is focused onto a small solar cell by a secondary device like a lens or mirror. CPV is differentiated according to the concentration factors:
High concentration > 300 suns (HCPV)
Medium concentration 5 < × < 300 suns (MCPV)
Low concentration < 5 suns (LCPV)
Definition of the Subject
Solar energy is the most abundant of all energy resources, and the rate at which solar energy is intercepted by the Earth is about 10,000 times greater than the rate at which all energy is used on this planet.
Solar energy can be used by a family of technologies capable of being integrated among themselves, as well as with other renewable energy technologies. The solar technologies can deliver heat, cooling, electricity, lighting, and fuels for a host of applications.
The conversion of solar energy into electricity, the photovoltaic effect, was discovered by Alexandre-Edmond Becquerel in 1839. However, it took more than a hundred years, until in 1954 scientists at the Bell Laboratories unveiled the first modern solar cell, using a silicon semiconductor to convert light into electricity.
With the oil crisis of the 1970s, many countries in the world started solar energy research and development (R&D) programs, but it took another 20 years until the first market implementation programs for grid connected solar photovoltaic electricity generation systems started in the 1990s and began to prepare the basis for the development of a photovoltaics industry.
Introduction
Over the last two decades, photovoltaics has developed from a niche market product to a major electricity generation source. The growth dynamics is changing from government-driven incentive programs to market-driven investment decisions. Progress in materials and processing technology, the increased volatility and mounting fossil energy prices, and environmental and health concerns over the use of fossil energy sources are adding momentum to it. Between the end of 2012, when the global photovoltaic power capacity had reached 100 GW, and the end of 2018, photovoltaics has grown fivefold. It is expected that 1 TW of photovoltaic capacity will be reached between 2021 and 2022 [1, 2].
Production data for the global cell production in 2018 vary between 110 GW and 120 GW. The uncertainty in this data is due to the highly competitive market environment, as well as the fact that some companies report shipment figures, while others report sales and again others report production figures.
The data presented, collected from stock market reports of listed companies, market reports, and colleagues, were compared to various data sources and thus led to an estimate of 113 GW (Fig. 1), representing a moderate increase of about 5% compared to 2017 For 2019 a market growth of over 20% is expected.
Uncertainties in production statistics
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Only a limited number of companies report production figures for solar cells or thin film modules.
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Shipment figures can include products from stock, already produced in the previous year.
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Some companies report shipments of “solar products” without a differentiation between wafers, cells, or modules.
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The increasing trend toward OEM increases the risk of double counts.
Since 2000, the production of solar photovoltaic devices has grown with a CAGR of over 40%. After the rapid increase of the annual production in China and Taiwan since 2006 a new trend emerged in 2014 to increase production capacities in other Asian countries like India, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, or Vietnam. It is interesting to note that most of these investments are done by Chinese companies. Another trend in the PV industry was the rapid increase in original equipment manufacturing (OEM) volumes since 2011, which allowed larger companies to significantly increase their shipment volumes without adding new capacity of their own.
Between 2008 and 2014, PV module prices have decreased rapidly by more than 80%, then 2015 saw a short levelling out due to industry consolidation and increasing markets, mainly in China and Japan [3, 4]. However, since the beginning of 2016, module prices have again seen a sharp decrease in prices, which put all solar companies along the value chain under enormous pressure [5].
Worldwide overcapacities along the PV value chain still exist and started to build up as a result of very ambitious investments beginning in 2005. The investments in solar cell and module manufacturing equipment, excluding polysilicon manufacturing plants, peaked in 2011 at about USD 14 billion (EUR 10.8 billion) after the PV market grew by more than 150% in 2010. However, in the following years, the market growth for solar photovoltaic systems slowed and was not able to absorb the output of this massive and rapid increased manufacturing capacity. The result was a huge oversupply, which led to continuous price pressure along the value chain and resulted in a reduction of market prices for polysilicon materials, solar wafers and cells, as well as solar modules. This development resulted in the insolvency of many companies. Consequently, equipment spending declined dramatically and hit the bottom with around USD 2 to 2.5 billion (EUR 1.54 to 1.92 billion) in 2013.
Consolidation in the PV manufacturing industry has led to the closure or takeover of a significant number of companies since 2009. Despite those bankruptcies and companies with idling production lines or even permanent closures of their production facilities, the number of new entrants to the field, notably large semiconductor, construction, or energy-related companies, is remarkable and makes a reasonable forecast for future capacity developments very speculative. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) the group of Tier 1 module manufacturers have a production capacity of 107 GW in 2018 [5].
The uncertainty about how much additional capacity will be available in the future is twofold. First, a number of projects are from industry players with no solar cell manufacturing record and in countries with a limited or no infrastructure. Therefore, it is very difficult to predict if and when these capacities will eventually be realized. Second, with the ongoing cost pressure and the drive to modules with higher efficiencies, it is obvious that older production lines will be upgraded or substituted with manufacturing capacities capable to produce these higher efficient solar cells at lower costs. Therefore, the overall net capacity increase for solar cells will be much lower than the announcements imply.
Nevertheless, the general trend still is pointing in the direction of more capacity announcements despite the existing excess capacity. However, it is important to recall that the existing excess capacity is different in the four main parts of the silicon module value chain: (1) polysilicon production, (2) wafer production, (3) solar cell manufacturing, (4) module manufacturing.
Despite the continuing problems of individual companies, the fundamental industry as a whole remains strong and the overall PV sector will continue to experience significant long-term growth. The IEA’s Renewable Energy Market Report 2018 forecasts worldwide a new installed photovoltaic power capacity between 575 and 720 GW between 2018 and 2023 [2].
For 2018, the world market predictions vary between 85 GW according to Solar Power Europe’s low scenario and 113 GW in the Q4 BNEF Global PV Market Outlook [5, 6]. The same sources predict a range between 92 GW and 140 GW in 2019.
The current solar cell technologies are well established and provide a reliable product, with a guaranteed energy output for at least 30 years.
This reliability, the increasing demand for electricity in emerging economies and possible interruptions due to grid overloads, as well as the rise in electricity prices from conventional energy sources, all add to the attractiveness of PV systems.
About 95% of current production uses wafer-based crystalline silicon technology. Projected silicon production capacities for 2018 vary between 475,000 t [5] and 578,000 t [7]. It is estimated that about 30,000 t will be used by the electronics industry. Potential solar cell production will, in addition, depend on the material used per Wp (grams per Watt-peak). The blended global average was about 4.0 g/Wp in Q3 2018. According to the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic, polysilicon material consumption is expected to drop to values between 2.1 and 3 g/W in 2028 [8].
In general, global CAPEX for PV solar systems has converged, even if significant differences still exist due to differences in market size and local competition and factors like import taxes, local content rules, or existing tax credits. In the first half year (1H) 2019, the BNEF global benchmark for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was given with USD 57 per MWh for non-tracking PV and USD 49 per MWh for tracking PV systems [9]. The cost share of solar modules in the benchmark PV system has dropped below 30%.
The influence of CAPEX on LCOE of solar PV electricity has decreased significantly, and other costs like O&M (operations and maintenance) costs, permits and administration, fees, and levies as well as financing costs play a more dominant role. Therefore, these variable and soft costs must be targeted for further significant cost reductions.
In countries with a developed electricity grid infrastructure, the increasing shares of PV electricity in the grid lead to a growing importance of the economics of integration. Therefore, more and more attention is focused on issues such as:
Development of new business models for the collection, sale, and distribution of PV electricity, e.g., development of bidding pools at electricity exchanges, virtual power plants with other renewable power producers, and storage capacities
Adaptation of the regulatory and legal procedures to ensure fair and guaranteed access to the electricity grid and market
The technical challenges are different in countries with a weak electricity grid or where not all citizens have access to electricity at all. The access to electricity and the design of new electricity infrastructure should be based no longer on the dependence of classical centralized power generation units, but use the new available technology options of decentralized renewable power generation sources like photovoltaics. The smart use of the locally available mix of different renewable energy sources as well as demand and supply side management has to be an integral part of every energy plan to avoid stranded investments in the future.
The cost of direct current (DC) electricity generated by a PV module has dropped below EUR 0.02/kWh in many places worldwide, although a significant additional cost component relates to transporting the electricity from the module to where and when it is needed. Therefore, new innovative and cost-effective electricity system solutions with PV as an integral part of sustainable energy solutions are needed now. The optimization of solar PV electricity plant design and operation has direct effect on the O&M costs, which play an important role for the economics of the PV installation. With the continuous decrease of hardware CAPEX, the nontechnical costs, linked to permit applications and regulations, are representing an increasing share of the total costs and need to be reduced as well. Here, further public support, especially for regulatory measures, is needed.
The Photovoltaic Industry
The photovoltaic industry consists of a long value chain from raw materials to PV system installation and maintenance. So far, the main focus was on the solar cell and module manufacturers, but in addition there is the so-called upstream industry (e.g., materials, polysilicon production, wafer production, equipment manufacturing) as well as the downstream industry (e.g., inverters, BOS components, system development, project development, financing, installations and integration into the existing or future electricity infrastructure, plant operators, operation and maintenance, etc.). In the near future, it will probably be necessary to add (super)-capacitor and battery manufacturers as well as power electronic and IT providers for the demand and supply management including meteorological forecasting. The main focus in this chapter, however, is on solar cell and module manufacturers as well as polysilicon manufacturers.
Technology Mix
After the temporary silicon shortage between 2004 and 2008, silicon prices fell dramatically, as did the cost of wafer-based silicon solar cells. In 2018, their market share was over 95% and they continue to be the main technology. Commercial module efficiencies range widely from 12% to 22%, with monocrystalline modules from 16% to 22%, and polycrystalline modules from 12% to 18%. The massive increases in manufacturing capacity for both technologies were followed by the capacity expansions needed for polysilicon raw materials.
In the utility PV power plant sector, the fastest growing segment is PV systems with tracking systems. It is expected that the market share of utility-scale PV plants with tracking will rise from approximately 20% in 2016 to over 40% in 2020.
In 2005, for the first time, the production of thin-film solar modules reached more than 100 MW per annum. Between 2005 and 2009, the CAGR of thin-film solar module production exceeded that of the overall industry, increasing the market share of thin-film products from 6% in 2005 to 10% in 2007 and from 16% to 20% in 2009. Since then, the thin-film share has declined to less than 5% in 2017 [10, 11]. Reasons for this decline are mainly the limited progress in efficiency improvements (tf silicon), problems of newcomers to ramp up novel manufacturing technologies for CIGS or CdTe (cadmium telluride), and the limited finances of start-up companies.
The number of thin-film manufacturers which are silicon-based and use either amorphous silicon or an amorphous/microcrystalline silicon structure has declined steeply in the last years due to the efficiencies still at the low end of the scale. Only a few companies use Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)2 or CdTe (cadmium telluride) as absorber material for their thin-film solar modules.
Concentrating photovoltaics (CPV) is struggling to follow the cost reduction of the other technologies, and the number of companies active in the field has declined sharply over the last years. Within CPV, there is a differentiation according to concentration factors and whether the system uses a dish (Dish CPV) or lenses (Lens CPV). The main parts of a CPV system are the cells, the optical elements, and the tracking devices.
On the research level, new nonconcentrating high efficiency concepts are researched to increase the cell and module efficiencies. These innovative concepts are either based on thin-film technologies only or on a combination of crystalline silicon and thin-film technologies.
The existing PV technology mix is a solid foundation for the future growth of the sector as a whole. No single technology can satisfy all the different consumer requirements, ranging from mobile and consumer applications, and the need for a few watts up to multi-MW utility-scale power plants. If material limitations or technical obstacles restrict the further growth or development of a single technology pathway, then the variety of technologies will be an insurance against any stumbling blocks in the implementation of solar PV electricity.
Polysilicon Supply
The rapid growth of the PV industry which started in 2000 led to a situation where, between 2004 and early 2008, the demand for polysilicon outstripped the supply from the semiconductor industry. Prices for purified silicon peaked in 2008 at around USD 500/kg, resulting in higher prices for PV modules. This extreme price hike triggered a massive capacity expansion, not only among established companies but many new entrants as well.
The massive production expansions, as well as the difficult economic situation after the Lehmann collapse, led to a fall in prices throughout 2009, reaching about USD 50 to 55/kg at the end of 2009. There was a slight upward trend throughout 2010 and early 2011 before prices started to drop again. In 2013, they started to stabilize and a slight upward trend was observed in 2014 before the price pressure started to move prices down again. In September 2018, polysilicon spot prices were in the USD 7 to 13/kg (EUR 6.09 to 11.30/kg) range.
The average silicon consumption worldwide is about 3.5 g/Wp for mono-crystalline and 4.3 g/Wp for multi-crystalline silicon solar cells in Q4 2018.
Silicon Production Processes
The high growth rates of the PV industry and market dynamics forced the high-purity silicon companies to explore process improvements, mainly for two chemical vapor deposition approaches – an established production approach known as the Siemens process and a manufacturing system based on fluidized bed reactors. It is very probable that improved versions of these two types of processes become the workhorses of the polysilicon production industry in the near future.
Siemens process: The Siemens reactor was developed in the late 1950s and has remained the dominant production route ever since. In 2009, about 80% of total polysilicon manufactured worldwide was made using a Siemens-type process. It involves deposition of silicon from a mixture of purified silane or trichlorosilane gas, with an excess of hydrogen, on to high-purity polysilicon filaments. The silicon growth then takes place inside an insulated reaction chamber or “bell jar” which contains the gases. The filaments are assembled as electric circuits in series and are heated to the vapor deposition temperature by an external direct current. The silicon filaments are heated to very high temperatures between 1,100 and 1,175 °C at which tri-chlorosilane, with the help of the hydrogen, decomposes to elemental silicon and deposits as a thin-layer film on to the filaments. Hydrogen chloride is formed as a by-product.
Temperature control is the most critical process parameter. The temperature of the gas and filaments must be high enough for the silicon from the gas to deposit on to the solid surface of the filament, but well below the melting point of 1,414 °C, so that the filaments do not start to melt. Secondly, the deposition rate must be well controlled and not too fast, otherwise the silicon will not deposit in a uniform, polycrystalline manner, making the material unsuitable for semiconductor and solar applications.
Fluidized-bed (FB) process : A number of companies develop polysilicon production processes based on FB reactors; however, production is still limited. The motivation for using the FB approach is the potentially lower energy consumption and continuous production, compared to the Siemens batch process. In this process, tetrahydrosilane or trichlorosilane and hydrogen gases are continuously introduced into the bottom of the FB reactor at moderately elevated temperatures and pressures. At a continuous rate, high-purity silicon seeds are inserted from the top and suspended by the upward flow of gases. At the operating temperature of 750 °C, the silane gas is reduced to elemental silicon and deposits on the surface of the silicon seeds. The growing seed crystals fall to the bottom of the reactor where they are removed continuously.
Upgraded metallurgical grade (UMG) silicon was seen as one option for producing cheaper solar-grade silicon with 5- or 6-nines purity, but support for this technology is waning in an environment where higher-purity methods are cost-competitive. A number of companies have delayed or suspended their UMG-silicon operations as a result of low prices and lack of demand for UMG materials for solar cells.
Polysilicon Manufacturers
The following list gives a short description of the 10 largest companies in terms of production in 2017. More information about other polysilicon companies can be found in various market studies.
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd.
GCL-Poly (http://www.gcl-poly.com.hk) was founded in March 2006 and started the construction of its Xuzhou polysilicon plant (Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development Co. Ltd.) in July 2006. Phase I had a designated annual production capacity of 1,500 t and the first shipments were made in October 2007. Full capacity was reached in March 2008. At the end of 2015, nameplate polysilicon production capacity had reached 70,000 t and 14 GW of wafers. The wafer capacity was further increased to 30 GW at the end of 2017. The company reported production of 74,818 t of polysilicon with sales of 7,316 t of polysilicon and 23.9 GW of wafers for 2017.
The company also invested in the downstream solar business. GCL Solar System Ltd. (SSL) is a wholly owned subsidiary of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. and provides solar-system turnkey solutions for residential, governmental, commercial, and solar farm projects, including design, equipment supply, installation, and financial services. Another subsidiary is GCL Solar Power Co. Ltd. which is developing, operating, and managing solar farms with a total capacity of 6 GW at the end of 2017.
Wacker Polysilicon AG
Wacker (http://www.wacker.com) is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of hyper-pure polysilicon for the semiconductor and PV industry, chlorosilanes, and fumed silica. The company has two production sites in Germany: Burghausen with a production capacity of about 40,000 t Nünchritz with 20,000 t. In April 2016, the company officially opened their factory in factory in Charleston (TN), USA, with a nameplate capacity of 20,000 t [12]. For 2017, the company reported production and sales of more than 71,000 t.
OCI Company Ltd.
OCI (http://www.oci.co.kr/) (formerly DC Chemical) is a global chemical company with a product portfolio spanning inorganic chemicals, petro and coal chemicals, fine chemicals, and renewable energy materials. In 2006, the company started its polysilicon business and successfully completed its 6,500 t P1 plant in December 2007. The 10,500 t P2 expansion was completed in July 2009, and with another 10,000 t P3 brought the total capacity to 27,000 t at the end of 2010. The de-bottlenecking of P3 took place in 2011, and increased the capacity to 42,000 t at the end of that year. At the end of 2017 the company had a nameplate capacity of 72,000 t of capacity. The effective capacity was given with 65,800 t and plans to increase to 69,000 t by the end of 2018. For 2017, a production of close to 60,000 t was estimated.
OCI invested in downstream business and holds 89.1% of OCI Solar Power, which develops, owns, and operates solar power plants in North America. The total capacity of operational projects was almost 1 GW at the end of 2017.
Xinte Energy Co.
Xinte Energy Co. (http://www.xtnysolar.com/) is a subsidiary of TBEA Silicon Co. Ltd. and was established at the State Hi-Tech Development Zone in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China, by Tebian Electric Apparatus Stock Co. Ltd. (TBEA) and East Electric EMei Semiconductor Institute. TBEA is a major manufacturer of power transmission and transformation equipment including inverters for renewable energy applications. TBEA Silicon is active in the field of polysilicon manufacturing as well as gird-connected and mini-grid power plants. For 2017, a production capacity of 33,000 t and actual production of 29,400 t was given.
Daqo New Energy Co. Ltd.
Daqo New Energy (http://www.dqsolar.com/) is a subsidiary of the Daqo Group and was founded by Mega Stand International Ltd. in January 2008. Initially, the company built a high-purity polysilicon factory in Wanzhou, China, with an annual output of 3,300 t in the first phase. The first polysilicon production line, with an annual output of 1,500 t, started operating in July 2008. Production capacity in 2009 was 3,300 t and had reached more than 4,300 t by the end of 2011. According to the company, production capacity at the end 1Q 2017 was 18,000 t. A further expansion of the capacity to 30,000 t should be finished by the end of 2018. In addition, the company manufactures wafers and had a capacity of 100 million at the end of 2016. The company reported a production of 20,200 t of polysilicon, sales of 17,950 t of polysilicon and 98 million of wafers in 2017. In September 2018, the company announced to discontinue its wafer business.
Sichuan Yonxiang Co. Ltd.
Yonxiang (http://www.scyxgf.com) is a subsidiary of Tongwei and located in Leshan City, Sichuan Province. The company’s main business includes the production of high purity silicon and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and the utilization of carbide slag cement. According to the company they have production capacity of 20,000 t of polysilicon and started an expansion project of 50,000 t together with Longi Green Energy Technology in June 2017 and should be finished by Q4 2018. The production in 2017 was estimated at about 17,000 t.
Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation
Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation (http://www.hscpoly.com) is based in Hemlock, Michigan. The corporation was set up as a joint venture between Dow Corning Corporation (63.25%) and two Japanese firms, Shin-Etsu Handotai Co. Ltd. (24.5%) and Mitsubishi Materials Corporation (12.25%). In 2013, Dow Corning Corporation bought the Mitsubishi Materials Corporation share, increasing its own share to 75.5%.
In 2007, the company had an annual production capacity of 10,000 t of polycrystalline silicon, and production at the expanded Hemlock site (19,000 t) started in June 2008. A further expansion at the Hemlock site, as well as a new factory in Clarksville (Tennessee) United States, began in 2009. Total production capacity was expanded to 56,000 t in 2012, but the Clarksville factory was closed due to overcapacities in the market in 2014. For 2017, a nameplate capacity of 43,000 t and an operational production capacity of 21,000 t was reported. Actual production in the range of 15,000 t was estimated.
China Silicon Corporation Ltd.
China Silicon Corporation Ltd. (Sinosico: http://www.sino-si.com/eng/home.aspx) was established in March 2003, with headquarters in the High-tech Development Zone, Luoyang City, Henan province. In June 2003, the company began with the construction of Phase I of a polysilicon production project with 300 t per year. Since then the production capacity has been increased stepwise and was about 18,000 t at the end of 2016. For 2017, a production of 14,000 t was estimated.
In January 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission officially approved the establishment of a National Engineering Laboratory for polysilicon by Sinosico. On 22 January 2010, the National Key Engineering Laboratory for polysilicon production was officially opened.
REC Silicon ASA
REC Silicon (http://www.recsilicon.com) is headquartered in Moses Lake, Washington, USA, and has production facilities in Moses Lake and Butte, Montana. The company resulted from the 2013 split of Renewable Energy Corporation into two companies: REC Solar ASA and REC Silicon ASA. In 2005, the Renewable Energy Corporation took over Komatsu’s US subsidiary Advanced Silicon Materials LLC (ASiMI), and announced the formation of its silicon division business area, REC Silicon Division, comprising the operations of REC ASiMI and REC Solar Grade Silicon LLC. At the beginning of 2014, the company announced the formation of a joint venture with Shaanxi Non-Ferrous Tian Hong New Energy Co. Ltd. in China. This joint venture includes the development of an 18,000-t fluidized bed reactor (FBR-B) production facility. The joint venture started operation in December 2017 and should be fully operational in the second half of 2018.
Production capacity at the end of 2017 was about 20,000 t and, according to the company, a total of 11,636 t of polysilicon was produced and 13,067 t sold in 2017.
Xinjiang East Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.
Xinjiang East Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. (East Hope) is a subsidiary of East Hope Group, founded in 1982. East Hope is a newcomer which started the commercial operation of its 30,000 t polysilicon plant located in Xinjiang in April 2017. The company plans to expand the capacity to 120,000 t in the future. It is estimated that the company had a production of more than 10,000 t in 2017.
Solar Cell Production Companies
In 2017, more than 100 companies produced solar cells down from the 350 active in 2013. The solar cell industry has been very dynamic over the last decade, and each status report is only a snapshot of the current situation, which can change in just a few weeks. The nameplate capacity of solar cell manufacturing capacity was about 120 GW at the end of 2018 and could increase to over 130 GW at the end of 2019.
The following section gives a short description of the 10 largest companies, in terms of actual solar cell production in 2018. More information about other solar cell companies can be found in various commercial market studies. The capacity, production, or shipment data are from the annual reports or financial statements either of the respective companies or the references cited.
JA Solar Holding Co. Ltd.
JingAo Solar Co. Ltd. (http://www.jasolar.com) was established in May 2005 by the Hebei Jinglong Industry and Commerce Group Co. Ltd., the Australia Solar Energy Development Pty Ltd., and the Australia PV Science and Engineering Company. Commercial operations started in April 2006 and the company went public on 7 February 2007. According to the annual report of the company, the production capacity was 5.5 GW for cells and modules and 2.5 GW for wafers at the end of 2015. For 2018, an increase of the cell from 6.5 GW to 7 GW, module from 7 to 8.5 GW and wafers from 2.7 GW to 5 GW manufacturing capacity each is foreseen. Total sales for 2017 were reported with 7.5 GW (7.15 GW modules and 350 MW cells). It is estimated that about 6.4 to 6.5 GW of solar cells were produced in 2017.
Trina Solar Ltd.
Trina Solar (http://www.trinasolar.com/) was founded in 1997 and went public on NASDAQ in December 2006. In March 2017 the company completed its Going-Private transaction, a move which is thought to be a preparation to go public in China at a later stage.
The company has integrated product lines, from ingots to wafers and modules. In March 2016 the company announced the official launch of operations at its new manufacturing facility in Thailand. The factory first had a solar cell manufacturing capacity of 700 MW and a module manufacturing capacity of 500 MW, and was increased to 1 GW in the meantime. In January 2017, a 1 GW solar cell and module manufacturing plant was opened in Vietnam and an additional 700 MW module factory in Malaysia became operational in 2018.
According to the company it shipped 9–9.2 GW of modules in 2017. A solar cell production of 6.4–6.5 GW was estimated for 2017.
In January 2010, the company was selected by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology to establish a State Key Laboratory (SKL) to develop PV technologies within the Changzhou Trina PV Industrial Park. The laboratory is being established as a national platform for driving PV technologies in China. Its mandate includes research into PV-related materials, cell and module technologies, and system-level performance. It will also serve as a platform for bringing together technical capabilities from the company’s strategic partners, including customers and key PV component suppliers, as well as universities and research institutions.
Hanwha
The Hanwha Group (http://www.hanwha.com) acquired a 49.99% share in Solarfun Power Holdings in 2010 and the name was changed to Hanwha SolarOne in January 2011. It produces silicon ingots, wafers, solar cells, and solar modules. The first production line was completed at the end of 2004 and commercial production started in November 2005. The company went public in December 2006 and reported the completion of its production capacity expansion to 360 MW in the second quarter of 2008.
In August 2012, Hanwha acquired Q CELLS (Germany/Malaysia), which had filed for in-solvency in April 2012. In February 2015, the Hanwha SolarOne brand was dropped and became a part of Hanwha Q CELLS. After the closure of the manufacturing facilities in Germany in March 2015, a 60 MW cell production line remained as a R&D facility. At the end of 2016, Hanwha, with its two brands Hanwha Q CELLS and Hanwha Q CELLS Korea Corp., had a combined production capacity of 8 GW of solar cells and modules (2.5 GW in China, 1.8 GW in Malaysia, and 3.7 GW in Korea) as well as 1.65 GW of ingot in China. The wafer manufacturing plant in China was closed in 2017. In the spring of 2018, the company announced to build a PV module plant with more than 1.6 GW capacity in Georgia, USA.
For 2016, Hanwha Q CELLS reported a solar cell production of 4.28 GW (China and Malaysia only) and solar module shipments of 5.4 GW. The difference in cells was probably manufactured at the Korean plant. In March 2017, the company reported that a consortium consisting of Hanwha Q CELLS and Kalyon Enerji Yatirimlari A.S. has been awarded the tender to construct a solar power plant with 1 GW in Turkey. As part of the award criteria, the consortium will build a fully integrated solar cell and module factory with a capacity of 500 MW within the next 21 months. Construction of the plant started in December 2017.
JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd.
JinkoSolar (http://www.jinkosolar.com/) was founded by Hongkong Paker Technology Ltd. in 2006. Starting from the upstream business, in 2009, the company expanded its operations across the solar value chain, including recoverable silicon materials, silicon ingots, and wafers, solar cells, and modules. In May 2010, it went public and was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. According to the company, it had manufacturing capacities of 8 GW for wafers and 5 GW for solar cells (4.55 GW in China, 450 MW in Malaysia) and 7.5 GW for solar modules at the end of 2017. A capacity increase to 9.7 GW for wafers, 7 GW for solar cells, and 10.8 GW for modules is foreseen in 2018. For 2017, the company reported module sales of 9.7 GW, 270 MW of solar cells, and 585 MW of wafers. It is estimated that 4.4 to 4.5 GW of solar cells were manufactured in 2017.
Longi Solar
Longi Solar (http://en.longi-solar.com) is a subsidiary of Longi Group and was founded in 2000. The company focuses on mono-crystalline solar cell and module production. According to the company, they had a manufacturing capacity of 12 GW for ingots and wafers, 6.5 GW for solar modules, and 5 GW for solar cells in 2017. According to the company it produced about 4.5 GW of solar cells in 2017.
The company announced major capacity increases in Q1 2018. The mono-wafer capacity is scheduled to reach 28 GW by the end of 2018. In addition, the mothballed 500 MW module factory in Andhra Pradesh, India, should be reactivated and increased to 1 GW solar cell and module production capacity. The module plant should be operational in the second half of 2019, whereas the solar cell plant should be operational in January 2020.
Tongwei Solar (Hefei) Co., Ltd.
Tongwei Solar (http://www.tw-solar.com/en/) is part of the Tongwei Group, a private company with core business in agriculture and new energy and was set up in 2013. In 2011, Tongwei Group signed an integrated PV strategic cooperation agreement with Xinjiang Government, which included 50,000 t solar-grade polysilicon project, three GW solar wafer and solar cell project, as well as five solar plants of 350 MW.
Together with the specialized equipment manufacturer Yongxiang, the Tongwei group owns and operates Yongxiang Polycrystalline Silicon Co., Ltd., located in Leshan City, Sichuan Province, which expanded its manufacturing capacity to 20,000 t polysilicon in 2017. An expansion project of 50,000 t was started as a joint venture with Longi Green Power in June 2017.
Tongwei Solar reported an annual production capacity of 5.4 GW for solar cells and 350 MW for solar modules at the end of 2017. The company plans to almost double this capacity to 10.4 GW until the end of 2018 and to over 20 GW by the end of the decade. For 2017, shipments of 3.85 GW solar cells are estimated.
Canadian Solar Inc.
Canadian Solar (CSI) (http://www.canadian-solar.com/) was founded in Canada in 2001 and listed on NASDAQ in November 2006. CSI has established six wholly owned manufacturing subsidiaries in China, manufacturing ingot/wafer, solar cells, and solar modules. According to the company, at the end of 2017 it had 1.2 GW of ingot capacity, 5 GW of wafer capacity, 5.45 GW cell capacity, and 8.1 GW module manufacturing capacity (5.8 GW in China, 1.55 GW in South-East Asia, 400 MW in Brazil, and 360 MW in Ontario, Canada). In 2018, the solar cell manufacturing capacity should be increased to 6.25 GW, the module manufacturing capacity to 9.1 GW, and ingots to 1.6 GW. For 2016, the company reported shipments of 6.8 GW of modules. The solar cell production was estimated at 3.7 GW.
Motech Solar
Motech Solar (http://www.motech.com.tw) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Motech Industries Inc., located in the Tainan Science Industrial Park. The company started its mass production of polycrystalline solar cells at the end of 2000, with an annual production capacity of 3.5 MW. Production increased from 3.5 MW in 2001 to 1 GW in 2011. In 2009, Motech started the construction of a factory in China, which reached its nameplate capacity of 500 MW in 2011. In December 2014, Motech and Topcell Solar International Co., Ltd. agreed to merge [13]. The merger was completed by June 2015. In September 2015, the company announced that its subsidiary, Motech (Suzhou) Renewable Energy Co., Ltd. agreed to a strategic partnership with Jiansu Aide Solar Energy Technology Co. [14].
Total production capacity at the end of 2017 was reported as 3.6 GW (1.6 GW China and 2 GW Taiwan). Total solar cell shipment of 3.26 GW was reported.
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd.
Yingli (http://www.yinglisolar.com/) went public on 8 June 2007. The main operating subsidiary, Baoding Tianwei Yingli New Energy Resources Co. Ltd., is located in the Baoding National High-tech Industrial Development Zone. The company’s operations include solar wafers, cell manufacturing, and module production. According to the firm, production capacity was 1.85 GW at the end of 2011. In its annual report, it reported that, by the end of 2017, it had a production capacity of 3.4 GW for ingots and wafers, 3.9 GW for solar cells, and 4.2 GW for solar modules. Total reported shipments of solar modules for 2017 were 2.95 GW. Due to its OEM manufacturing activities for third parties the solar-cell production is estimated at 3 GW for 2017.
In January 2010, China’s Ministry of Science and Technology approved an application to establish a national-level key laboratory in the field of PV technology development, the SKL of PV Technology, at Yingli Green Energy’s manufacturing base in Baoding.
Shunfeng International Clean Energy Ltd.
Shunfeng Int. (http://sfcegroup.com/en/) is a Holding Company registered in Hong Kong. According to the company, its mission is to create a low-carbon environment. The Group is a fully integrated PV service provider engaging in solar power stations constructions and operations, solar products manufacturing, as well as solar energy storage.
The group has a number of subsidiaries, which are fully or partially owned: 100% ownership – Jiangsu Shunfeng Photo-voltaic Technology Co., Ltd. (PRC), Wuxi Sun-tech Power Co., Ltd. (PRC), S.A.G. Solarstrom Group (Germany), Sunways AG (Germany); partly ownership – 63% in Suniva (USA), 30% in Powin Energy Corporation (USA), 28% in Shanghai Everpower Power Technology Co., Ltd. (PRC).
According to the annual report 2017, the annual production capacity of solar modules and solar cells was approximately 2.4 GW and 3 GW, respectively. The solar power generation business had a grid-connected annual designed installed capacity, of 1500 MW. For 2017, total sales of 2.47 GW solar modules and 1.35 GW of solar cells were reported. Solar cell production was estimated at 2.8 GW.
The Photovoltaic Market
Annual new solar PV system installations increased from 29.5 GW in 2012 to 99.8 GW worldwide in 2017, driven by a shift to more large-scale utility systems on the one hand and a worldwide reduction of PV system prices on the other side (Figs. 2 and 3). Current estimates for 2018 are slightly above 100 GW, but the results can still change once the official statistics are available. The annual installed capacity in each of 2017 and 2018 was about the same as the total PV capacity installed until the end of 2012. Within 6 years, worldwide PV power has increased fivefold to more than 500 GW at the end of 2018.
This development represents the grid connected PV market. To what extent the off-grid and consumer product markets are included is not clear, because these markets are very difficult to track. However, these segments have become smaller and smaller in relative terms.
Uncertainties in market statistics
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The installation figures of this report are about the physical installation of the system hardware, not the connection to the grid. The grid connection can be delayed due to administrative reasons or in some cases missing grid capacity.
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This report uses nominal DC peak power (Wp) under standard test conditions (1,000 W irradiance, air mass 1.5 light spectrum, and 25 °C device temperature) for reasons of consistency.
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Not all countries report DC peak power (Wp) for solar PV systems, but especially for larger scale system some use the utility peak AC power, which is relevant for the transmission operator. Even in the Eurostat statistics the two capacities are sometimes mixed.
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Some statistics only count the capacity which is actually connected or commissioned in the respective year for the annual statistics, irrespectively when it was actually installed. This can lead to short-term differences in which year the installations are counted and the annual statistics, but levels out in the long run, if no double counting occurs. For example, (1) in Italy about 3.5 GW of solar PV systems was reported under the second conto energia and installed in 2010, but only connected in 2011; (2) the construction period of some large solar farms spread over two or more years. Depending on the regulations – whether or not the installation can be connected to the grid in phases and whether or not it can be commissioned in phases – the capacity count is different.
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Some countries do not have official statistics on the capacity of solar PV system installations or sales statistics of the relevant components.
In 2015, China overtook Germany in terms of cumulative installed nominal PV power, Japan followed in 2016, and the USA already did so in the first half of 2017. In 2017, China also overtook the European Union in terms of total installed PV power capacity. With 45 GW annual installations it reached a total PV power capacity of 180 GW or almost 35% of the 518 GW solar PV electric power capacity installed worldwide at the end of 2018. The European Union follows with a cumulative installed PV power of 117 GW or 23% of global capacity. This is down from the 66% share in 2012, when the cumulative installed solar PV electric power had just reached 100 GW worldwide.
Europe, the Russian Federation, and Turkey
A political agreement on increasing renewable energy use in the European Union was reached between negotiators from the Commission, the European Parliament, and the Council on 14 June 2018. The agreement sets a new, binding, renewable energy target for the EU for 2030 of 32%, including a review clause by 2023 for an upward revision of the EU level target [17].
Due to different energy policies, regulations, and public support programs for renewable energies in the various countries, market conditions for PV differ substantially. Besides these policy-driven factors, the varying grades of liberalization in the domestic electricity markets as well as the maturity of the PV market and local financing conditions have a significant influence on the economic attractiveness of installing PV systems.
Since 2005, solar PV electricity generation capacity in the EU has increased from 1.9 GW to over 116 GW at the end of 2018 (Fig. 4) [18, 19]. Already in 2014, the 2020 National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) target of 83.7 GW was exceeded, reaching about 88.4 GW.
With a cumulative installed capacity of 116 GW, the EU has further lost ground in the worldwide market, representing now only 23% of the global total of 510 GW of solar PV electricity generation capacity at the end of 2018. The effects of this development on solar jobs was a significant reduction from over 260,000 jobs in 2011 to about 99,000 jobs in 2017 [20]. This is a steep decline from the 66% recorded at the end of 2012. The installed PV power capacity in the EU at the end of 2018 can generate around 130 TWh of electricity or about 4.8% of the final electricity demand in the European Union.
According to the IEA Renewable Energy Market Report (REMR) 2018, the European Union’s share will drop below 20% by 2023 due to a stagnant market of 7–9 GW between 2018 and 2023 in the European Union and a worldwide growth to between 575 and 720 GW until 2023 [2].
The latest New Energy Outlook (NEO) 2018 by Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts a slight increase of the electricity demand in Europe (EU-28, Island, Norway, and Switzerland) from 3,454 TWh in 2017 to 3,566 TWh in 2030. The increase is driven by the increased use of electric vehicles (EV) but slowed by progress in energy efficiency [21]. This is in line with the estimates for the European Union that the net electricity generation will be around 3,400 TWh in 2030.
To realize the new renewable energy target of 32% by 2030, the European Union has to increase its use of renewable energy in the power sector to at least 65%. The main contributions have to come from solar and wind power. Different from a number of other scenarios, NEO 2018 does not foresee an increase in electricity from renewable energy sources except for solar photovoltaics and wind, which will have to supply 440 TWh and 1,300 TWh, respectively [21].
The required solar photovoltaic capacity would be about 420 GW divided in 55% utility-scale PV plants and 45% decentralized small systems. However, with a total installed capacity of about 110 GW, including Switzerland, at the end of 2017 and annual installations between 5.7 and 7.5 GW in the last 3 years, it will be difficult to reach this target. New policies are needed to allow for annual installation between 25 and 30 GW over the next 12 years, which are needed to reach the target. In order to realize these installations, the annual market has to grow to three to four times the European market volume in 2017 [22, 23].
The following sections describe market development in some EU Member States, as well as in Switzerland, the Russian Federation, and Turkey. More detailed information about the progress of renewable energy implementation in the EU Member States can be found on the annual PV Status Reports of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) [1] or the EUROSTAT web site.
Austria
In 2017, Austria installed about 150 MW of new PV systems and increased the cumulative capacity to 1.25 GW. The Ökostrom-Einspeisetarifverordnung 2012 (Eco-Electricity Act) is the regulation which sets the prices for the purchase of electricity generated by green power plants. In addition, there is a federal investment subsidy program for PV systems with different sizes. For each of these categories a limited budget is available. In addition to these federal programs, five federal states have their own PV programs and six states have programs to support the installation of electricity storage.
At the end of May 2018, the Austrian Government approved the new Climate and Energy Strategy – “mission 2030” – for Austria [24]. The main issues concerning photovoltaics are the following:
Increase the share of renewables in final energy consumption to 45–50% by 2030. This corresponds to about 80 TWh of electricity or 30 TWH more than today from hydro, solar, and wind.
In 2030 renewable electricity production should cover 100% of electricity consumption.
Investment support program for “100,000 rooftops with local storage.”
Removal of all taxation on self-generation, currently exempted up to 25MWh.
Change incentives to a combination of feed-in premiums, auctions, and investment incentives.
According to a study by the Energy Economics Group of the Technical University of Vienna, the installed PV capacity to realize “mission 2030” should be in the range of 14 to 15 GW by 2030, a more than tenfold increase compared to 2017 [25].
Belgium
The three Belgian regions (Brussels, Flanders, and Wallonia) have individual support schemes for PV, but one electricity market. Therefore, some regulations are regional and others are national. A common denominator is the fact that all three regions selected a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) system with quotas for RES. A net-metering scheme exists for systems up to 5 kWp Brussels or 10 kWp (Flanders and Wallonia) as long as the electricity generated does not exceed the consumer’s own electricity demand.
In 2011, Belgian installations peaked with over 1 GW of new systems, before starting to decline in 2012. At the end of 2017, cumulative installed capacity was over 3.8 GW with about 290 MW installed in that year [15]. Over 9.3% of Belgian households are already generating their own PV electricity, and PV power supplied 2.89 TWh or 3.6% of the country’s net electricity production in 2017.
The proposal of the Belgium Parliament for a new Energy Pact 2050 was published in January 2018 and the main issues concerning photovoltaics are:
Gradual phase-out of Belgium’s 6 GW of nuclear capacity between 2022 and 2025 and increase of renewables in the power supply to 40% by 2030 (8 GW of PV, 4.2 GW onshore wind, and 4 GW offshore wind)
Increase of renewables in the power supply to 100% by 2050
2 GW of large-scale storage and 3 GW of distributed small-scale storage
Elia, the Belgian grid operator, published three scenarios for the Belgian electricity supply, indicating that total PV power could be in the range of 5 to 11.6 GW by 2030 and in the highest scenario could go up to 18 GW by 2040 [26]. To reach the 2030 targets of the proposed Energy Pact, the present market size of about 300 MW only has to increase slightly over the next 12 years.
France
In 2017, 887 MW of new PV systems were connected to the grid in France [27]. Total cumulative installed capacity increased to over 8.06 GW, including about 400 MW in the French Overseas Departments [28]. Electricity production (continental France and Corsica) from PV systems was 9.2 TWh or 1.7% of the national electricity generation.
On 22 July 2015, France’s National Assembly adopted the Energy Transition for Green Growth Act. The legislation aims to reduce France’s reliance on nuclear to 50% of power generation by 2025 and increase the share of renewable energies in the final gross energy consumption to 23% in 2020 and 32% in 2030 [29]. The targets for PV to achieve the 2023 goal are 10.2 GW installed PV power by 2018 and between 18.2 and 20.2 GW by 2023. Despite a reiteration of these targets in the multiannual energy programming (EPP) for the periods 2019–2023 and 2024–2028 in November 2018, the reduction of the nuclear electricity share seems unlikely by 2025.
Under the new support mechanism, feed-in tariffs are only available for systems below 100 kW capacity and tenders for systems above. However, there is still a difference for the larger systems: Systems between 100 and 500 kW bid for fixed tariffs, larger systems for a market premium. In the first half of 2018, PV systems with a capacity of 479 MW were connected to the grid [28]. The capacity of projects in the planning stage increased to 6 GW, of which 2.5 GW already had a signed connection agreement.
Germany
Compared to 2016, new PV system installations in Germany saw a slight increase to 1.75 GW, with about 440 MW free-field systems as a result of previous auctions [30]. For the first 7 months of 2018 the Bundesnetzagentur reported the registration of PV projects with 1.65 GW out of which about 480 MW free-field systems as a result of previous auctions.
The German market growth is directly correlated to the introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz EEG) in 2000 [31]. This law introduced a guaranteed feed-in tariff (FiT) for electricity generated from solar PV systems for 20 years and already had a fixed built-in annual reduction which was adjusted over time to reflect the rapid growth of the market and corresponding price cuts. However, the rapid market growth required additional adjustments. Until 2008, only estimates of installed capacity existed, so a plant registrar was introduced on 1 January 2009.
Since May 2012, the FiT has been adjusted on a monthly basis depending on the actual installation of the previous quarter. The revision of the EEG in 2014 changed the system size for new systems eligible for a feed-in tariff and introduced levels of levies on self-consumption [32]. So far systems with a capacity of less than 10 kWp are excepted form the levy. For all other systems, the levy on each self-consumed kWh increased to 40% on 1 January 2017.
Since 1 September 2015, owners of new ground mounted systems have to participate and win an auction of the Federal Network Agency. The total amount of capacities auctioned is determined by political decisions and limits this market segment.
Starting on 1 January 2016 only systems smaller than 100 kWp are eligible for a feed-in tariff and since then also larger rooftop systems have to market their electricity directly or take part in auctions. The relevant feed-in tariffs are regularly published by the Bundesnetzagentur.
The fact that the tariff for residential PV systems smaller than 10 kWp (September 2018: EUR 0.1230/kWh) is now well below the average variable electricity rate consumers are paying (EUR 0.235–0.275/kWh) and the fact that they are still exempt from the EEG levy makes self-consumption attractive and is opening up new possibilities for the introduction of local storage. Since July 2017 a program to support the self-consumptions for tenants of multi apartment buildings exists, but until May 2018 only about 160 PV systems with 4 MW cumulative power were installed [30].
Italy
In 2017, Italy connected 415 MW of PV systems, increasing cumulative installed capacity to 19.7 GW by the end of 2017 according to the annual report of the Gestore dei Servizi Energetici (GSE) [33]. After the Quinto Conto Energia (Fifth Energy Bill) ended in July 2013, the only support mechanisms are now via the Scambio sul Posto (self-consumption) scheme and a tax break for the system investment costs.
According to the Italian national grid operator TERNA, electricity from PV systems provided 24.81 TWh or 7.7% of the total electricity sold in 2017 [34]. Solar photovoltaic power generation was 22 TWh or 7.5% of the total electricity demand during the first 11 months of 2018. The highest monthly coverage was in June 2018, when PV electricity supplied 10.3% of the Italian energy demand.
In March 2018, ENEL announced that it started the production of bifacial silicon heterojunction modules at its 3SUN factory in Catania, Sicily, and aims to increase the production volume to 240 MW by 2019 [35].
The Netherlands
According to the Dutch Statistical Office, PV systems with a capacity of 815 MW have been installed in 2017 bringing the total installed PV power to 2,864 MW at the end of the year [36]. The total generated solar electricity was 2.15 TWh or 1.85% of the net electricity generation.
Since 2011, the main incentive has been a net-metering scheme for small residential systems up to 15 kW and a maximum of 5,000 kWh/year. Systems larger than 15 kW can apply for the program to stimulate sustainable energy production (SED+), for a maximum of 950 full load hours per year, which is open for all renewable energy technologies [37]. Over 3,700 PV projects with a combined capacity of 1.7 GW was selected in the first round of the 2018 SDE+. This brings the total approved capacity of PV systems for the two 2017 and the first 2018 allocations to 5.9 GW.
Poland
The Polish National Renewable Action Plan required by the EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) foresees to reach a renewable energy share of 15.5% in the gross final energy consumption. Renewable electricity should reach 19.13% of the final energy supply by 2020.
The Renewable Energy Act of 2015 went into force in July 2016 and replaces the previous green certificate system with an auction scheme [38]. The first auction for systems smaller than 1 MW took place on 30 December 2016 and the second on 29/30 June 2017. A total of 360 MW was awarded to 436 projects, out of which 40 systems with about 27 MW were installed until the end of May 2018 [39].
In 2017, Poland connected about 80 MW of PV systems, increasing cumulative installed capacity to 280 GW [39]. About half of the capacity was installed under the old green certificate system, the other half are residential small systems.
Spain
Spain takes the fifth place in Europe with regard to the total cumulative installed capacity, at 5.6 GW. This report gives installed DC capacities, whereas the Spanish installations were quoted as AC capacity in the past. Therefore, there is a difference between these and the numbers in the PV status reports before 2014. Most of this capacity was installed in 2008 when the country was the largest market, with over 3.3 GW [40]. As a consequence, the Spanish Government started to introduce a number of regulations in order to limit the growth of the sector already in 2008 and suspended the remuneration pre-assignment procedures for new renewable energy power capacity in January 2012. The justification given for this move was that, until then, Spain’s energy system had amassed a EUR 24-billion power-tariff deficit. The government argued that the special regime for renewable energy was the main reason for this. However, this argument was more than questionable as the deficit already amounted to almost EUR 9 billion in 2007, a time when payments under the special regime for renewable energy were still limited. After peaking in 2013 with EUR 28.8 billion the deficit had decreased to EUR 23 billion at the end of 2016 [41]. According to press reports, Moody’s estimates that the deficit will decrease by over 9% from the EUR 21 billion at the end of 2017 to about EUR 19 billion at the end of 2018 [42].
A more detailed description of the development of the Spanish market can be found in earlier PV Status Reports [43].
In 2017, new PV systems were installed with a capacity of roughly 150 MW. In the same year, electricity generated from grid connected PV systems contributed 8.4 TWh or 3.2% of the Spanish electricity generation.
After 5 years of very little new PV power additions, the next 3 years will bring some change. In July 2017, the Spanish Ministry for Energy and Tourism announced the winners of the second renewable energy auction in 2017 and solar photovoltaic power projects had won 3.9 GWAC in this auction [44]. The winning consortia have to connect the systems before 1 January 2020.
Switzerland
In 2017, about 240 MW of PV systems were installed in Switzerland, increasing the total capacity to 1.9 GW [45]. In 2017, PV power generated 1.7 TWh or 2.9% of the Swiss electricity demand.
After a 40% price decrease in 2012, prices for turnkey systems fell by a further 12% in 2013 and a further 5% until 2015 [46]. In 2016, prices for installed and connected residential PV systems (<10kWp) were in the range of was CHF 2.000 to 3.500 per kWp without value added tax (VAT). For larger rooftop systems above 1 MWp the price range was CHF 1.250 to 1.700 per kWp [47]. Prices in 2017 have not dropped significantly.
A revised energy law came into force on 1 January 2014. The necessary implementation rules came into force on 1 April 2014, giving electricity producers the right to self-consume the electricity they produce, regardless of the technology. New installed PV systems with a capacity of between 2 and 30 kW can receive an investment subsidy instead of the FiT. The current amount is CHF 1,400 per system and an additional CHF 500 per kWp. In addition, the investment for a PV system is tax deductible in almost all cantons. Surplus electricity from systems with an investment subsidy can be sold to the grid operator at market prices between CHF 0.05 and 0.09/kWh (EUR 0.046 and 0.082/kWh).
In May 2017, the Swiss voted to increase the available amount for renewable energy support schemes from CHF 900 million (EUR 780 million) to CHF 1.380 million (EUR 1.200 million) per year. In addition the new energy law prohibits the construction of new nuclear power plants and the existing ones are phased out at the end of their.
United Kingdom
In 2016, PV systems with a power capacity of about 2.15 GW was connected to the grid increasing the cumulative PV power to 11.7 GW. PV systems generated about 10.3 TWh or 3.0% of UK electricity generation in 2016.
The old FiT scheme for systems up to 5 MW closed on 14 January 2016 and a new scheme opened on 8 February 2016, with different tariff rates and rules – including a limit on the number of installations supported in various capacity bands [48]. The new scheme offers a “Generation Tariff” for each generated kWh and in addition an “Export Tariff” for up to 50% of the generated electricity, which is not consumed on-site at the time of generation (self-consumption). Both tariffs are adjusted each quarter and depend in addition whether or not the respective band caps are reached.
Larger systems can participate in Contracts for Difference Allocation Rounds. In the first round, which was held in 2015, five projects with a total capacity of 72 MW won contracts with a strike price of GBP 50 (two projects with 33 MW) and 79.23 per MWh (three projects with 39 MW). However, two of the five projects were withdrawn and one contract was cancelled. There is only confirmation of one project that was connected to the grid on 30 June 2016.
The second round planned for October 2015 was cancelled and finally took place in April 2017, but solar was not included.
The Renewable Obligation Certificate (ROC) scheme introduced in 2012 ended on 31 March 2017.
In the first 7 months of 2017, 714 MW of new solar systems were registered.
Russian Federation
The “Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035” is still in a draft stage and aims to reduce energy intensity by 6% by 2020 and 37% over the 2021–2035 period compared to 2014. Russia started to install solar PV capacity in 2010, and since 2013, capacity installations have accelerated with the installation of the first 1 MW plant in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. In May 2016 the Russian government set a target of 5.5 GW for the installation of renewable electricity capacities including wind, solar, small hydro up to 2024 [49]. Solar photovoltaic capacity should reach 1.75 GW. In 2017 about 60 MW of new PV capacity was installed in Russia, increasing the total capacity to around 600 MW (including ca 400 MW in Crimea). As a result of the renewable energy auction in June 2017, Russia’s Administrator of the Trading System allocated approximately 520 MW of PV capacity to be connected from 2018 onward. In June 2018 about 150 MW of PV power was awarded to Hevel Solar and Fortum in an auction. Hevel Solar won three projects with close to 40 MW to be connected to the grid at the end of 2019, while Fortum won seven projects with 110 MW to be operational by 2021 and 2022.
Turkey
In March 2010, Turkey’s Energy Ministry unveiled the 2010–2014 Strategic Energy Plan. One of the government’s priorities is to increase the ratio of renewable energy resources to 30% of total energy generation by 2023. At the beginning of 2011, the Turkish Parliament passed renewable energy legislation which defines new guidelines for FiTs. The FiT was USD 0.133/kWh (EUR 0.10/kWh) for owners commissioning a PV system before the end of 2015. If “made in Turkey” components are used, the tariff was increased by up to USD 0.067 (EUR 0.052), depending on the material mix. To take advantage of these local procurement rules, factories have been set up by Anel Enerji, Atsco Solar, and China Sunergy to produce PV modules. The first licensing round for a volume of 600 MW, which closed in June 2013, was oversubscribed by about 15 times with close to 9 GW of projects submitted to the Turkish Energy Regulatory Authority. However, so far only about 20 MW were installed at the end of 2017.
Due to the fact, that systems below 1 MW fall under the category of “non-licensed plants” the market started to take off in 2014 with 40 MW installed and a fivefold increase to 208 MW in 2015, 580 MW in 2016, and almost 2.5 GW in 2017. At the end of 2017 the cumulative capacity had exceeded 3.4 GW, most of it in the category of “non-licensed” according to the Turkish transmission operator TEİAŞ [50]. For the first 2 months of 2018, TEİAŞ reported the connection of about 0.5 GW of new PV systems [51]. According to the Turkish Solar Energy Society the installed solar photovoltaic power capacity had almost reached 4.6 GW at the end of March 2018. Market expectations for 2018 vary between 1.8 and over 3 GW, however, the high end looks uncertain after the currency turbulences in summer 2018.
Asia and the Pacific region
Asia and the Pacific region continued its upward trend in annual installations of PV electricity system. The reasons for this development range from falling system prices, heightened awareness, favorable policies, and the sustained use of solar power for rural electrification projects. Countries such as Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam continue a very positive upward trend, thanks to governmental commitment to the promotion of solar energy and the creation of sustainable cities.
In 2017, more than 76 GW of new PV electricity generation systems were installed in the region, which corresponds to roughly three quarters of the world wide new PV power installed in 2017. The largest market was China with 53 GW, followed by India with around 10 GW, and Japan with about 7 GW. In 2018, about almost 71 GW were installed in the region, but with a different country distribution.
Australia
In 2017, about 1.35 GW of new solar PV electricity systems were installed in Australia, bringing the cumulative installed capacity of grid-connected PV systems to 7.2 GW. As in the previous years the market was dominated by grid-connected residential systems. In the first 6 months of 2018 PV systems with 1.25 GW have already been registered increasing the number of homes with PV systems to over 1.8 million. The national penetration of homes with PV systems has exceeded 20%, and in some urban areas it is even more than 50%.
The average PV system price paid by the customer for a grid-connected system fell from AUD 6/Wp (EUR 4.29/Wp) in 2010 to AUD 1.24/Wp (EUR 0.77/Wp) in August 2018 [52]. As a result, the cost of PV-generated electricity has fallen to, or is even below, the average residential electricity rate of AUD 0.29/kWh (EUR 0.18/kWh).
In 2017, PV electricity systems generated about 10.2 TWh or 3.9% of Australia’s total electricity demand. The total renewable electricity share was 17% and this should increase to 20% by 2020.
India
For 2017, market estimates for solar PV systems vary between 9.5 and 10 GW, due to the fact that some statistics cite the financial year (FY) and others the calendar year. According to the country’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), at the end of July 2018, the total solar power capacity was 23.9 GW [53], but Bridge to India reported a capacity of 24.9 GW at the end of June 2018 [54].
In January 2010, the Indian Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JJNSM) was launched in the hope that it would give impetus to the grid-connected market. The JJNSM aimed to make India a global leader in solar energy and envisages an installed solar generation capacity of 20 GW by 2022, 100 GW by 2030, and 200 GW by 2050. In 2015, the target was updated by the National Solar Mission Group of MNRE to 100 GW by 2022 [55].
Following the installation of just a few MW in 2010, 2011, and 2012, installations began to pick up in 2013 and market expectations for 2018 and 2019 are in the order of 7.5 to 10 GW and 11 to 15 GW, respectively.
The range of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) awarded in 2016 was between INR 4,350 and 5,010/MWh (EUR 58.78 to 67.70/MWh) and dropped to INR 2,440 to 3,470/MWh (EUR 32.97 to 46.89/MWh) in the second quarter of 2017. The lowest bids were for 500 MW of phase III of the Bhadla solar park, Rajasthan. This capacity should be commissioned in Q4 2018.
Israel
A FiT was introduced in Israel in 2008 and 4 years later the grid-connected PV market saw about 60 MW of newly connected capacity. In addition, in 2009, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) was defined, although it took until 2011 to be completed. One of the main drivers behind the development of solar energy is energy security, and in November 2015 at COP21 in Paris, the government declared a new goal of 17% alternative energy use by 2030 a significant increase from the then 2%. On 3 August 2016, the Knesset passed a bill to eliminate taxes on residential solar and wind installations.
In December 2016, the Israeli Electricity Authority announced to hold four tender bidding rounds in 2017 and 2018 with 150 to 300 MW solar PV capacity each. The result of the first tender for PV projects up to 12 MW held in March 2017 was the allocation of around 235 MW of solar PV capacity.
At the end of 2017, about 1 GW of cumulative solar PV power was installed and market expectations for 2018 range from 150 to 200 MW.
Japan
In 2017, the Japanese PV market decreased by about 24% to 7 GW. Cumulative installed capacity reached 49.1 GW at the end of 2017. According to the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies, solar photovoltaic electricity contributed 5.7% of the total electricity generation in Japan in 2017 [56]. This was almost twice the share of nuclear (2.8%).
Under the FiT scheme, introduced in July 2012 and amended in the following years [57], 71.7 GWAC had received approval until the end of September 2017. Please note that the METI capacity statistics is AC-based and is converted by the New Energy Development Organization in DC-figures. However, only 36.8 GWAC had been commissioned and were in operation. Because a significant discrepancy between actual installations and permits given emerged starting already in 2013, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) started to revise the list of projects according to their actual status and revoked permits for projects that had failed to secure land and equipment by given deadlines.
Until 2010, residential rooftop PV systems represented about 95% of the Japanese market. Since 2011, due to changes in the permit system, large ground-mounted systems as well as large commercial and industrial rooftop systems started to increase their market share and represented more than 90% in 2016. Of the 71.7 GWAC approved by the end of September 2017, only 5.3 GWAC or 7.4% comprised systems smaller than 10 kWp. However, 95% of these systems were actually connected to the grid. PV systems with capacities over 2 MWAC represented 37% of the approved capacity, but only 18% of them had started operation.
On 25 May 2016, the bill for the revision of the Act on Special Measures Concerning Procurement of Electricity from RES by Electricity Utilities was enacted and put into force in April 2017. The main change besides a review of the tariffs itself is the fact that new projects with more than 2 MW capacity will have to participate in auctions. In the first auction of 2017, which had a ceiling price of JPY 21 kWh (EUR 0.162/kWh), nine projects with a capacity of 141 MW were successful. However, only four projects with a capacity of 41 MW actually paid the required deposit to get the approval. The second auction at the beginning of September 2018, no project was below the ceiling price of JPY 15.5/kWh (EUR 0.119/kWh), which was not disclosed to the bidder beforehand. A third auction is planned for December 2018.
New projects approved after 1 April 2017 now have 3 years maximum until they have to be connected. Feed-in tariffs for FY 2018 were set as follows. Commercial installations (total generated power) larger than 10 kWp receive a tariff of JPY 18/kWh (EUR 0.138/kWh) for 20 years. For residential installations (surplus power) smaller than 10 kWp, the basic FiT is JPY 28/kWh (EUR 0.215/kWh, if the system is equipped with an output control device or JPY 26/kWh (EUR 0.200/kWh) without such a device for 10 years.
As a consequence of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011, the country’s energy strategy was reshaped. An official target of 28 GWAC was set for PV power in 2020, which was already surpassed in FY 2015. The fifth Strategic Energy Plan was approved by the Japanese Cabinet on 3 July 2018 [58]. This new plan aims to increase the self-sufficiency of electricity production from 8% in 2016 to 24% in 2030 and to reduce GHG emissions by 80% until 2050.
Jordan
In 2007, when renewable energy accounted for only 1% of the energy consumption, the Government of Jordan developed an ambitious Energy Master Plan to increase the share of renewables to 7% in 2015 and 10% in 2020. In April 2012, Jordan implemented the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Law No 13, which established a fund to support up to 500 MW of renewable power [59]. According to the Middle East Solar Industry Association, operational PV capacity in Jordan was about 567 MW including about 100 MW of net-metered systems at the end of 2017 [60]. A further 450 MW of systems larger than 100 KW were under construction in February 2018, and a further 200 MW were tendered in 2017. According to BNEF roughly 270 MW of new PV capacity was built in 2017 and market expectations for 2018 are around 580 MW [61].
In 2015, the European Investment Bank and the French government approved loans to Jordan totaling EUR 128 million for the construction of the Green Corridor project, which aims to upgrade the electricity infrastructure to be able to accommodate the planned PV projects. The upgraded infrastructure should be operational by 2018. In April 2018, the 103 MW Quweira solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant near Aqaba was connected to the grid.
In October 2016, Masdar, a clean energy developer based in Abu Dhabi, UAE, signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Jordan’s National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) for the Baynouna solar plant with 200 MWAC capacity. The plant should become operational in the first quarter of 2019.
There are two module manufacturers in Jordan, Philadelphia Solar in Amman and Wiosun in Aqaba.
Malaysia
The Malaysia Building Integrated Photovoltaic Technology Application Project was initiated in 2000, and by the end of 2009 a cumulative capacity of about 1 MW of grid-connected PV systems had been installed.
The Malaysian Government officially launched its Green Technology Policy in July 2009 to encourage and promote the use of renewable energy for Malaysia’s future sustainable development. The target was that about 1 GW must come from RES by 2015, according to the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water.
In April 2011, renewable energy FiTs were passed by the Malaysian Parliament with the target of 1.25 GW being installed by 2020. The tariffs are set by the Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA) for each year. For 2018 the basic tariffs for systems up to 1 MW are between MRY 0.4435 and 0.6682/kWh (EUR 0.092 to 0.181/kWh), depending on the type and system size. For local manufacturing or use as building materials surcharges between MRY 0.05 and 0.1256/kWh (EUR 0.01 to 0.026/kWh) apply.
According to SEDA, PV systems with more than 378 MW of capacity received the FiT and were operational by the end of August 2018, jut 0.5 MW than at the end of 2017 [62]. Between the 1 November 2016 and 2020, Malaysia aims to implement 500 MW of PV capacity under the Net Energy Metering (NEM) program. So far, the uptake of the program is rather slow. For 2017 and 2018 quota of 178.8 MW and 77.9 MW for the Malaysian Peninsula as well as 19.9 MW and 9.9 MW for Sabah were foreseen. The allocated quotas are 5.2 MW and 12.1 MW for the Malaysian Peninsula as well as 21.5 kW and 13 kW for Sabah.
Almost a dozen of companies have set up silicon solar cell or CdTe-thin film manufacturing plants in Malaysia, amounting to more than 8 GW of production capacities. In addition, there are additional smaller silicon module manufacturing companies. In total about 250 companies are involved in upstream solar PV activities such as poly silicon, wafer, cell, and module production and downstream activities such as inverters and system integrators. Since 2012, these companies provide more than 25,000 jobs [63].
Pakistan
In December 2006, the Government of Pakistan introduced the “Policy for Development of Renewable Energy for Power Generation,” which set a target of 9.7 GW of electricity generation capacity from RES by 2030 [64]. In 2015, a FiT was introduced ranging between USD 0.142 and 0.151 per kWh depending on the size and location of the system. The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is administering the projects receiving the tariff. According to their statistics, the yearly cumulative installed capacity within this framework was 100 MW in 2015, 400 MW in 2016, and 730 MW in 2017 [65].
In total it was estimated that about 2.5 GW of solar power was installed in Pakistan at the end of 2017 [5]. Market expectations for 2018 are in the range of 8–900 MW.
People’s Republic of China
According to the National Survey Report of IEA PVPS 53 GW of solar PV power was connected to the grid in 2017 increasing the total grid connected capacity to over 131 GW [66]. About 14.4 GW were residential PV systems and 36.6 GW utility-scale systems. Electricity production from PV systems in 2017 was 118 TWh or 1.9% of total electricity demand.
The 2018 International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewable Energy Medium-Term Market Outlook expects an addition of over 130 GW new PV capacity between 2018 and 2023, which would increase the total capacity to over 200 GW [2]. However, looking at the current developments, this capacity will be reached much earlier.
In July 2017, the National Energy Administration (NEA) published the new implementation guide for the 13th Five Year Plan (2016–2020) [67]. In this guide, 86.5 GW of new PV capacity is foreseen, i.e., 54.5 GW ground mounted systems and 32 GW “Top Runner Programme” installations. Together with the 45 GW of PV capacity foreseen in the Poverty Alleviation Programme of the 13th Five Year Plan and the already connected capacity of over 110 GW at the end of July 2017, this could bring the total capacity to over 240 GW in 2020.
According to the 13th Five Year Plan (2016–2020) adopted on 16 March 2016, China intends to continue to cut its carbon footprint and become more energy efficient. The share of non-fossil energy should increase from 12% in 2015 to at least 15% by 2020. Further targets are 18% fewer carbon dioxide emissions and 15% less energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2020 compared to 2015. Under this Plan, investment in non-fossil power should be RMB 2.3 trillion (EUR 309 billion), and about RMB 2.6 trillion (EUR 349 billion) are foreseen for the upgrade of the grid infrastructure of which RMB 1.7 trillion are intended for the distribution network [68, 69].
On 31 May 2018, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Board issued a common statement were they announced the end of the feed in tariffs for new utility-scale solar projects and the intention to use competitive bidding in the future [70]. The timing of this announcement was a surprise for most in the solar industry. However, the phase out of the feed-in scheme was not completely unexpected after NEA released a draft of the Renewable Portfolio Standard and Assessment Methods, that would create a market for renewable energy certificates (RECs), for comment in March 2018. At the end of September 2018, a second draft was released for comments with an updated target of at least 35% of renewable power by 2030. The final document is expected to be published before the end of 2018.
During the first 6 months of 2018, already more than 24 GW were connected to the grid. It is also worth to mention that the top-runner program, where module efficiency thresholds are 18% and 18.9% for multi and mono, respectively, the poverty alleviation program, and the residential quota are unaffected from the policy change.
In the short term, the end of the feed-in regime for utility-scale PV systems is driving down prices for solar modules, adding to the pressure on the solar module value chain companies. This price pressure will certainly accelerate the move of manufacturers to higher efficient products, namely changing the respective market shares of multi- and mono-silicon wafers in solar cell production. Further cost reductions come not only from higher efficiencies, but from thinner wafers, made possible by the rapid uptake of diamond wafer sawing, as well. Polysilicon material consumption is expected to drop from roughly 4.4 g/W at the end of 2017 to around 3 g/W in 2022.
In the longer term, the possible introduction of a renewable portfolio standard, which is currently under discussion in China, and an auctioning system could enable a steady and healthy future grow, not only of solar power capacity but the manufacturing industry as well.
Philippines
The Renewable Energy Law was passed in December 2008 [RoP 2008]. Under the law, the Philippines must double the energy derived from RES within 10 years. On 14 June 2011, Energy Secretary Rene Almendras unveiled the new Renewable Energy Roadmap which aims to increase the share of renewables to 50% by 2030. This program will endeavor to boost renewable energy capacity from the current 5.4 GW to 15.4 GW by 2030.
In early 2011, the country’s Energy Regulator National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) recommended a target of 100 MW of solar installations to be implemented in the country over the next 3 years. It was suggested that a FiT of PHP 17.95/kWh (EUR 0.299/kWh) was to be paid from January 2012 onward. For 2013 and 2014, an annual digression of 6% was foreseen. The initial period of the program was scheduled to end on 31 December 2014.
On 27 July 2012, the Energy Regulatory Commission decided to lower the tariff in view of lower system prices to PHP 9.68/kWh (EUR 0.183/kWh) and confirmed the digression rate. The Department of Energy (DoE) reported that, by the end of 2017, more than 6.8 GW of PV projects had applied under the Renewable Energy Law and 0.91 GW, most of it commercial systems were installed [71].
In 2017, two companies completed their new manufacturing sites in the Philippines: SunPower with a 400 MW solar cell and module manufacturing plant, and Solar Philippines with a 600 MW module manufacturing plant.
In August 2018, the Philippine utility company Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) announced that they had received a bid of PHP 2.34 (EUR 0.038) per kWh for 50 MW of solar by local PV module manufacturer and project developer, Solar Philippines.
South Korea
In 2017, about 1.2 GW of new PV systems were connected to the grid in South Korea, bringing the cumulative capacity to a total 5.7 GW [Par 2018]. Since January 2012, Korea’s RPS has officially replaced the FiTs. Besides the RPS, Korea supports PV installations by the “One Million Green Homes Program,” a building subsidy program, a regional development subsidy program, and the New and Renewable Energy (NRE) Mandatory Use Program for public buildings.
The RPS mandates utilities with more than 5,000 MW generation capacity to supply 4% of their electricity from NRE in 2016, increasing by 1% per year to 10% by 2022. The renewable energy mix in the Korean RPS is defined as the proportion of renewable electricity generation to the total nonrenewable electricity generation. PV had its own RPS set-aside quota for the period between 2012 and 2015.
Under the RPS, income for power generated by RES is a combination of the wholesale system’s marginal electricity price plus the sale of renewable energy certificates (RECs). Depending on the type of solar installation, the RECs are then multiplied by a REC multiplier, varying between 0.7 for ground-mounted free-field systems to 1.5 for building-adapted or floating PV systems.
Taiwan
In June 2009, the Taiwan Legislative Yuan gave its final approval on the Renewable Energy Development Act to bolster the development of Taiwan’s green energy industry. The goal was to increase Taiwan’s renewable energy generation capacity by 6.5 GW to a total of 10 GW within 20 years. The targets for installed PV capacity were 750 MW by 2015 and 3.1 GW by 2030. The 2030 figures were gradually increased and stood at 8.7 GW at the end of 2015. Between 2009 and 2016, a total capacity of about 1 GW was connected to the grid.
In June 2016, just a month after the new president Tsai Inn-Weng took office, the Ministry of Economic Affairs announced the new target of 20 GW PV power by 2025 (17 GW ground mounted and 3 GW rooftop systems). The new planning foresaw the installation of over 1.5 GW between July 2016 and July 2018. In the first half of 2018, the grid connected PV capacity increased by 470 MW to reach a cumulative capacity of 2.2 GW, some 200 MW short of the planned target.
Market expectations for 2018 and 2019 are in the range of 800 to 900 MW and 1 to 1.1 GW, respectively.
Thailand
Thailand enacted a 15-year Renewable Energy Development Plan in early 2009, with a target to increase the renewable energy share to 20% of the country’s final energy consumption in 2022. The original cap of 500 MW was increased to 2 GW at the beginning of 2012, as the original target had been highly oversubscribed. The “Adder” scheme was the Thai version of additional premium to the wholesale electricity price. In addition to the Adder program, projects were being developed with PPAs.
In July 2013, Thailand’s National Energy Policy Commission (NEPC) increased the solar generation target to 3 GW and approved FiTs for rooftop (100 MW for systems smaller than 10 kW and 100 MW for systems between 10 kW and 1 MW) as well as community-owned ground-mounted solar plants, in addition to the Adder scheme. The FiTs were set at THB 6.96/kWh (EUR 0.183/kWh) for residential size systems, THB 6.55/kWh (EUR 0.172/kWh) for medium-sized building systems and industrial plants (<250 kW), and 6.16 THB/kWh (0.1627 EUR/kWh) for large building and industrial plants.
The 2015–2036 Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2015) was approved by the NEPC on 17 September 2015 [72]. The plan aims to increase the use of solar energy with installation capacity of 6 GW by 2036.
In 2017 about 250 MW of new solar capacity was connected to the grid and increased the cumulative capacity to 2.7 GW.
At the end of August 2017, Small Power Producers (SPP) and Very Small Power Producers (VSPP) with an installed solar PV capacity of 2.5 GW had signed delivery contracts according to the Energy Regulatory Commission, Thailand [73]. Until April 2018 solar projects with a total capacity of 3.2 GW had applied or obtained a license and should be operational at the end of 2018 [74].
Americas
Argentina
In 2006, Argentina passed its Electric Energy Law which established that 8% of electricity demand should be generated by renewable sources by 2016 [75]. The law also introduced FiTs for wind, biomass, small-scale hydro, tidal, geothermal, and solar for a period of 15 years. In July 2010, among other RES, the government awarded PPAs to six solar PV projects totaling 20 MW; however, only 7 MW were actually realized. By the end of 2017, about 25 MW (15 MW off-grid) of PV systems were operational.
In late 2015 the National Government passed the Renewable Energy Act 27191, which laid the foundation for a new promotional legal framework to promote the uptake of renewable energy [76]. The Act was then regulated by the Presidential Decrees 531/16 and 882/16 [77, 78], which set a target of 20% of the final electricity demand by 2025.
To achieve the 2025 targets the RenovAr auction program was launched in May 2016, and in three bidding rounds 147 projects with a combined capacity of 4.47 GW (1.73 GWAC of PV projects) were successful. The median bids of the PV projects declined from USD 59.75/MWh in the first round to USD 42.84/MWh in addition of the third round called RenovAr 2. Despite the fact that the first projects from first round should become operational in 2018, most of these projects are delayed. The first RenovAr projects – two from the second round called RenovAr 1.5 – became operational in August 2018. The project in Caldenes del Oeste, San Luis, has a capacity of 25 MWAC (30 MWDC) and La Cumbre, San Luis 22 MWAC (28 MWDC). More than 500 MW are currently under construction and most of it is scheduled to become operational 2019.
A new tender for smaller projects between 0.5 and 10 MW is foreseen for October 2018. The quota for wind and solar PV together should be 350 MWAC.
Brazil
At the end of 2017, the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy reported a cumulative installed PV capacity of 1.1 GWAC [79]. In the first half of 2018 about 0.5 GWAC were added [80].
In July 2017, Brazil has released its long-awaited 10-Year Energy Expansion Plan proposition, PDE 2026, projecting the country to reach more than 13 GW of solar PV deployment by 2026. Brazil’s energy agency EPE expects non-hydro renewables to reach up to 48% of the energy mix by 2026. Under the reference scenario, large-scale PV plants should contribute 9.7 GW and distributed PV systems should add another 3.5 GW.
Solar technology was eligible to participate in one of the two December 2017 auctions and projects with 574 MWAC power were successful. For the Auction in April 2018, Brazil’s energy regulator (ANEEL) had set a ceiling price of BRL 312/MWh (EUR 63.67/MWh). The lion’s share of the 1 GW auctioned capacity was won by solar projects with a combined capacity of 807 MWAC at an average price of BRL 118/MWh (EUR 24.08/MWh).
Canada
In 2017, about 200 MW of new PV power were connected to the grid and increased the total cumulative installed PV capacity to 2.9 GW. Most of the systems are installed in Ontario, which has three programs to support PV installations:
Micro-FiT: Homeowners and other eligible participants can install a small or “micro” renewable electricity generation project (10 kW or less in size) on their property. Under this program, owners will be paid a FiT over a 20-year term for all the electricity produced and delivered to the province’s electricity grid.
FiT: This program is for systems between 10 and 500 kW and approved projects receive a FiT for the electricity produced over a 20-year contract period.
Net-Metering: Electricity consumers in Ontario who produce some of their own power from a renewable resource (systems up to 500 kW) can participate in the “net-metering” initiative.
Most other provinces have a net-metering scheme and a further six provinces offer investment incentives in the form of cash or tax rebates. Ontario’s Long-Term Energy Plan sets a target of 10.7 GW of non-hydro RES by 2021.
Chile
On 30 December 2015, the President of Chile, Michelle Bachelet, signed the Supreme Decree approving Chile’s new long-term energy strategy “Energy 2050” [81]. The new policy sets a goal of generating 70% of national electricity generation from renewable sources by 2050.
In the first quarter of 2012, the first MW-size PV system was installed in the northern Atacama Desert. More than 660 MW of PV power was connected to the grid in 2017, increasing the total PV capacity to about 1.8 GW at the end of 2017. According to the Comisión Nacional de Energía the connected solar capacity increased to 2.25 GW until July 2018 [82].
On 17 August 2016, Comisión Nacional de Energía announced the results of electricity auction “2015/01.” The lowest bid for a PPA, fixed in USD for 20 years, came from a solar project to deliver 255 GWh/year at USD 29.1 per MWh. The average price of all winners for 12.4 TWh/year was USD 47.6/MWh.
In 2017, 2,200 TWh of electricity were auctioned and the results announced in November 2017. The auction was divided in three time blocks, where the electricity has to be delivered.
Block 1A: 11 pm–8 am
Block 1B: 8 am–6 pm
Block 1C: 6 pm–11 pm
The lowest bid in the 2017 power auction was $21.48/MWh, with an average price of $32.5 MWh. Enel and GPG Solar Chile submitted the lowest bids with $21.48 MWh and $24.80/MWh, respectively.
Market expectations for 2018 are around 600 MW for new solar PV capacity.
Dominican Republic
As early as 2007, the law promoting the use of renewable energy, which set a target of 25% renewable energy share by 2025, was passed [83]. At that time, about 1 to 2 MW of solar PV systems were installed in rural areas, which increased to over 5 MW in 2011. Despite the fact that Corporación Dominicana de Empresas Eléctricas Estatales signed various PPAs totaling 170 MW in 2011 and 2012, no information about the operation of significant capacities could be found. It was estimated that by mid-2014 about 10 MW of PV installations were in operation, including a 500 kW system at the Union Médica hospital in Santiago. In March 2016, Phase I (34 MWAC) of a 67 MWAC solar plant was inaugurated in the Monte Plata province. At the end of 2017 it was estimated that about 110 MW were installed. In July the largest solar photovoltaic power plant with 58 MWAC (73 MWDC) in Guayubín, Montecristi, was connected to the grid [84]. Two additional project in Mata de Palma, San Antonio de Guerra (50 MWAC), and the Canoa Solar project with 25 MWAC, in Barahona, are under construction and should be connected to the grid before the end of 2018.
Honduras
In 2007, Honduras enacted a law to promote renewable energy generation, with 20-year income tax breaks and a waiving of import tariffs on renewables components. In 2013, the government introduced a premium tariff for the first 300 MW to be installed until 30 June 2015. The General Electricity Industry Act, which adds a USD 0.03 premium for solar projects not eligible for the premium tariff, was enacted in May 2014 [85]. So far the Congress has approved 620 MW of solar PV power to be installed. In November 2015, the National Electric Energy Company reported that 389 MW of solar PV power was connected to the grid in 2015 increasing the total capacity to 485 MW. In 2017 approximately 20 MW were installed to increase the total capacity to 560 MW (450 MWAC). Electricity generation from PV plants in 2017 was 924 GWh or 10.3% of the total sold electricity.
Mexico
In 2008, Mexico enacted the Law for Renewable Energy Use and Financing Energy Transition to promote the use of renewable energy [86]. In 2012, the country passed its Climate Change Law, which anticipates a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 30% below the business-as-usual case by 2020 and 50% by 2050 [87]. It further stipulates a share of renewable electricity of 35% by 2024. A new National Energy Strategy 2012–2026 was approved in 2013, which moved the 35% renewable electricity goal to 2026.
In 2017, about 285 MW of new PV systems were connected increasing the total cumulative PV system capacity to 674 MW [88]. The IEA Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2018 forecasts a cumulative PV capacity between 16 and 20 GW by 2023 [2].
The results of the country’s first power auction were published on 30 March 2016. Solar power with almost 1.6 GW and 4 TWh won contracts for PPAs between MXN 614.14/MWh (EUR 29.24/MWh) and MXN 1,169.78/MWh (EUR 55.70/MWh) [89]. The second auction in September 2016 resulted in contracts for 184 MW of additional solar PV power, but in addition more than 4.9 million CECs were given to solar PV projects for a total energy production of 4.84 TWh [90]. All systems have to be operational on 1 January 2019. A third auction was held in November 2017. 3.45 million CECs and 1.3 GWAC were awarded to solar photovoltaic projects. The prices per MWh varied between MXN 242.10 and 298.14 (EUR 10.86 – 13.27/MWh), whereas the CEC prices varied between MXN 95.82 and 149.07 (EUR 4.30 – 6.69) [91]. The winning projects must start to deliver electricity on 1 January 2020.
On 27 September 2018, Enel Green Power México+ announced that it has connected its 828 MW Villanueva solar photovoltaic plant in Viesca, Coahuila, and its 260 MW Don José solar park in San Luis de la Paz, Guanajuato [92].
Panama
In March 2016, the Government approved the National Energy Plan (NEP), 2015–2050 [93]. The plan includes a roadmap to use at least 70% of RES in the energy mix by 2050. In April 2016, the National Authority of Public Services (ASEP) announced that they will remove the cap of 500 kW for self-consumption, if the customer does not inject more than 25% of their own consumption into the grid [94]. According to ASEP, grid connected PV power had a capacity of 143 MW in December 2017 [95]. In January 2015, Panama’s Electricity Transmission Company (La Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica S.A. (ETESA)) awarded in the first solar energy auction five PPAs to solar projects, providing 660.2 GWh/year for prices between USD 80.2/MWh and 104.8/MWh starting from 1 January 2017 [96].
Peru
In 2008, Peru passed the Legislative Decree 1002 which made the development of renewable energy resources a national priority. The decree states that by 2013 at least 5% of electricity should be supplied from renewable sources, such as wind, solar, biomass, and hydro. In February 2010, the energy regulatory commission Osinergmin (Organismo Supervisor de la Inversión en Energía y Minería) held the first round of bidding and awarded four solar projects with a total capacity of 80 MW. A second round was held in 2011, with a quota of 24 MW for PV. About 85 MW of PV systems had been installed by the end of 2012. The National Photovoltaic Household Electrification Program, launched in 2013, aimed to supply PV electricity to 500,000 households by means of 12,500 solar systems by 2016. At the end of 2017 about 100 MW of solar PV capacity was installed in Peru.
On 16 February 2016, Osinergmin announced that they had awarded two PV projects with a total capacity of 184.5 MW to deliver 523.4 GWh of electricity/year at prices of USD 47.98/MWh (144.5 MWAC with 415 GWh) and USD 48.50/MWh (40 MWAC with 108.4 GWh) [97]. Start of electricity delivery is December 2018 at the latest. The next auction is planned for the second half of 2018 after there was no auction in 2017.
In March 2018, Enel Green Power Peru reported the inauguration of their 180 MW (144.5 MWAC) plant in Rubí, province Moquegua [98]. The second project awarded in the 2016 auction to Engie with 40 MWAC (44.2 MWDC) was connected in May 2018 and increased the operational solar power capacity to about 320 MW.
United States
With over 10.6 GW of newly connected PV power, the United States had reached a cumulative PV capacity of almost 51.8 GW by the end of 2017 [99]. In terms of nominal capacity, solar accounted for 33% of new power capacity in 2017, second only to natural gas. With over 6.2 GW utility PV installations accounted for 59% of the new installed solar photovoltaic power capacity. The top ten states – California, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Arizona, South Carolina, Nevada, and Virginia – still accounted for almost 80% of the US PV market, and California alone had a market share of 24.5%.
Following the Section 201 trade case, tariffs on modules were announced in January 2018. For 2018 the tariff was 30% and will decline by 5 percentage points annually to 15% in 2021. This move resulted in a slowdown of the market and market expectations for 2018 are in the 9 to 10 GW range with a moderate growth expectation to 10 to 11 GE in 2019. How the latest round of import tariffs for products from China in September 2018 will affect the market still has to be seen.
PV utility projects based on PPAs, with a total capacity of 23.9 GW, were under contract, but not yet operating in Q3 2018 [100]. In Q3, 4.3 GW of these projects are under construction. In the first half about 2.6 GW of utility-scale projects were installed and it is estimated that the about 6 to 6.5 GW of utility projects will be connected to the grid before the end of 2018. In addition more utility-scale projects with more than 36 GW have been announced, but not yet signed a PPA.
Many state and federal policies and programs have been adopted to encourage the development of markets for PV and other renewable technologies. These comprise direct legislative mandates (such as renewable content requirements) and financial incentives (such as tax credits). One of the most comprehensive databases on the different support schemes in the USA is maintained by the North Carolina State University Solar Centre. The Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DSIRE) is a comprehensive source of information on state, local, utility, and selected federal incentives that promote renewable energy. It also includes descriptions of all the different support schemes. The DSIRE website http://www.dsireusa.org/ and the corresponding interactive tables and maps (giving details) are highly recommended.
Africa
Despite Africa’s vast solar resources and the fact that in large areas the same PV panel can produce, on average twice as much electricity in Africa as in Central Europe, there has been only limited use of solar PV electricity generation up to now. According to the latest update of the JRC resource study in Africa [101], solar PV electricity is the most competitive technology for almost 40% of the total population in Africa. Until the end of the last decade, the main application of PV systems in Africa was in small solar home system (SHS) and the market statistics for these are extremely imprecise or even nonexistent. However, since 2012, major policy changes have occurred and a large number of utility-scale PV projects are now in the planning stage. In 2015, IRENA published “Africa 2030: A Roadmap for a Renewable Energy Future.” The roadmap identified modern renewable technology options across the sectors and across countries, which could collectively supply 22% of Africa’s total final energy consumption (TFEC) by 2030. This is more than a fourfold increase compared to the 5% share in 2013. According to the roadmap, PV solar power should contribute 70 TWh or 4% of TFEC produced by 31 GW of PV systems in 2030.
Overall, the (documented) capacity of installed PV systems has risen to more than 3 GW by the end of 2017, almost 50 times the capacity installed in 2008. In 2018, the installed capacity is expected to increase by another 50%. Current African PV targets for 2020 are in excess of 10 GW.
Algeria
In 2011, Algeria’s Ministry of Energy and Mines published its Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Programme which aims to increase the share of renewable energy used for electricity generation to 40% of domestic demand by 2030. The plan anticipates 800 MW of installations until 2020 and a total of 1.8 GW by 2030. In February 2014, the ministry introduced two FiT regimes, one for systems between 1 and 5 MW and one for systems larger than 5 MW. It was estimated that about 5 MW of small decentralized systems and a few larger systems in the multi-kW range were installed at the end of 2013.
According to the Renewable Energy Development Centre (CDER), the National Renewable Energy program for Algeria (2015–2030) now has a target of 22 GW of renewable power with a share of 13.5 GW of PV power by 2030.
Aures Solaire a 51/49 joint venture between Algerian firm Condor Electronics and Vincent Industrie (France) opened a 30 MW solar module factory located in the industrial zone of Ain Yagout in April 2017. Condor Electronics already owns and operates a 75 MW module plant at the same industrial zone since 2013.
In January 2017 the government adopted a decree to launch a 4 GW solar PV tender, and in March 2017, the regulatory framework for the implementation was published in the Official Journal [Jou 2017]. The solar plants should be built in the high plains of northern and southern Algeria. However, the tender is delayed and has not been published yet.
In 2015 and 2016, PV systems with about 350 MW were newly installed, but in 2017 only very few new systems were connected to the grid. It is estimated that the total PV capacity – on- and off-grid – was just about 400 MW at the end of 2017.
Cape Verde
Cape Verde’s Renewable Energy Plan (2010–2020) aims to increase the use of renewable energy to 50% by 2020 through the use of PPAs. Law No 1/2011 establishes the regulations for independent energy production. In particular, it lays down the framework conditions for the setup of independent power producers using renewable energy (15-year PPAs), and for self-production at user level. It creates a micro-generation regime, regulates rural electrification projects, and states the tax exemption on all imported renewable energy equipment. About 340 MW of PV systems are required to achieve the 2020 50% renewable energy target.
By the end of 2012, two centralized grid-connected PV plants with 7.5 MW had been installed. In addition, there are a number of smaller off-grid and grid-connected systems. At the end of 2015, about 10 MW of PV power was operational [102]. A 2 MW solar/wind hybrid project to provide electricity and fresh water on the Island of Brava had been approved by the IRENA/ADFD Project Facility. At the end of 2017 about 14 MW of PV capacity was operational. The energy and water service provider Águas de Ponta Preta on the island of Sal started the construction of a new 1.3 MW plant early 2018.
Egypt
In September 2014, the Ministry of Electricity and Energy and the Regulatory Agency launched a FiT support system for solar PV and wind projects with capacity less than 50 MW. The target of the program is to install 300 MW from small PV installations below 500 kW, and 2 GW PV plants between 500 kW up to 50 MW. The tariffs at that time varied between EGP 84.8 to 102.5/kWh (EUR 0.085 to 0.103/kWh) depending on the size of systems.
The first two rounds of the FiT program were heavily oversubscribed and around 2 GW of PV capacity was allocated. The majority of these projects, which received a 25-year FiT contract, are located in the 2 GWAC Benban Solar Park, near Aswan in upper Egypt. However, a significant number of projects were halted for a long time and only reached financial close in the second half of 2017 after the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the African Development Bank (AFDB) approved loans of almost USD 1.2 billion for 27 different projects. In December 2017, the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) issued a request for prequalification (RfP) for 600 MWAC of solar PV capacity to be developed west of the Nile.
The first solar plant of the Benban solar complex, Infinity with 64 MW (50 MWAC), became operational at the end of 2017. According to Egyptian media reports, 29 plants with a combined capacity of 1.45 GWAC should be connected to the grid in Q1 2019 [Egy 2018].
About 65 MW were connected in 2017, increasing the cumulative PV power to 79 MW at the end of 2017 [103].
Ethiopia
In February 2013, a 20 MW module manufacturing plant was opened in Addis Ababa. The factory is a joint project between SKY Energy International and Ethiopia’s Metals and Engineering Corporation (METEC). According to press reports, the factory was upgraded to 100 MW manufacturing capacity in 2015 [104]. Press reports confirmed the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEP) approved three solar plants with a capacity of 300 MW in the eastern region of the country [105]. In August 2016, EEP announced to tender the tree projects, which will be located in Metahara, Umera, and Mekelle [106].
In 2016, EEP signed an agreement with IFC to advice on the development of up to 500 MW of solar power under the Scaling Solar initiative. The prequalification bid for two 125 MWAC PV plants as part of the World bank’s Scaling Solar program in November 2017 resulted in the announcement of a dozen qualified bidders in March 2018.
In October 2017, it was announced that a consortium with Enel and the Ethiopian infrastructure company Orchid Business Group had been selected as the developers of the 100 MWAC Metahara project [107]. The plant is expected to enter into operation in 2019.
It is estimated that a solar PV capacity of about 30 MW was operational at the end of 2017.
Mauritania
In 2011, the country set up a Master Plan for the Production and Transport of Electricity until 2030 and adopted its third Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) action plan (2011–2015) [108]. The number of households with access to electricity rose from 30% in 2008 to 38.8% in 2014 [109].
The PRSP has set a target of raising the share of renewable energy in the national energy mix to 15% by 2015 and 20% in 2020. As part of the actions taken, the Sheikh Zayed 15 MW solar photovoltaic plant in Nouakchott was connected to the grid in 2013. The tender for a second PV plant in Nouakchott with 30 MW closed February 2016. The plant size was increased later to 50 MW and was connected to the grid by the end of 2017.
In 2016, eight smaller projects with 16.6 MW were installed increasing the total capacity to approximately 35 MW. Total PV power capacity reached 85 MW at the end of 2017.
Morocco
The Kingdom of Morocco’s solar plan was introduced in November 2009, with the aim of establishing 2,000 MW of solar power by 2020. To implement this plan, the Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy (MASEN) was founded in 2010. Solar electricity technologies, solar thermal electricity generation – also used term, concentrated solar power (CSP) – and PV will all compete openly. Earlier in 2007, the National Office of Electricity (ONEE) had already announced a smaller program for grid-connected distributed solar PV electricity, with a target of 150 MW of solar PV power. Various rural electrification programs using PV systems have been running for a long time. At the end of 2012, Morocco had installed about 20 MW of PV systems, mainly under the framework of the Global Rural Electrification Program, and about 1 to 2 MW of grid-connected systems.
In February 2015, ONEE announced their plan to tender various PV power projects of 20 to 30 MW each with a total capacity of 400 MW [110]. The first plants should have been operational at the end of 2017. In April 2015, the World Bank announced its decision to support the first phase of 75 MW. The prequalification process for PV Noor I, three plants with a combined capacity of approximately 170 MW solar power, was launched by MASEN in summer 2015. Twenty consortia were prequalified by MASEN in December 2015 to submit bids for the three plants Noor Ouarzazate, Noor Laayoune, and Boujdour Noor. According to press reports, three consortia from Saudi Arabia won the bids with prices in the range of USD 60/MWh.
Two companies in Casablanca are producing PV modules – Droben Energy, a subsidiary of the Spanish Droben company, with 5 MW, and Cleantech with 15 MW capacity. In May 2016, Jet Contractors, a Moroccan construction company, announced a Joint Venture with Hareon Solar (PRC) and Société d’Investissements Energétiques (SIE) to build a 160 MW solar cell and module manufacturing plant in Morocco [111]. The company already operates a 30 MW cell and module plant, which as phase I of the project will be converted to manufacture cells and modules according to Hareon’s quality standards.
Morocco’s Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau Potable (ONEE) provides solar power to more than 19,000 homes in more than 1,000 rural villages at the end of 2017.
It is estimated that about 30 MW of PV system capacity was installed at the end of 2017.
Senegal
In 2008 the Ministry for Renewable Energy (MER) was created, and the National Agency for Renewable Energies (ANER) was established in 2013. The country enacted a renewable energy law in 2010 [112], which calls for the diversification of the countries energy supply and a promotion of the use of renewable energy sources.
In 2016 the first competitive tender solar PV projects was launched through the framework of the World Bank’s “Scaling Solar” initiative, which should enable 200 MW of PV power in Senegal. This has auctioned 100 MW of solar capacity and the prequalification round closed in October 2016 [113].
The first utility-scale projects with 20 MW solar PV at BokholIt and 22 MW in Malicounda started operation in October and November 2016. In 2017, this was followed by two 30 MW plants in Santhiou Mékhé near Méouane and in Ten Merina, near Dakar. For 2018, a capacity addition of about 40 MW is estimated.
In April 2018, the results of a 60 MW the 2017 Scaling Solar initiative in Senegal tender were announced. The solar plant located in Kahone will have a tariff of EUR 0.0380/kW and the plant in Touba will have a tariff of EUR 0.0398/kWh [114].
South Africa
South Africa has a rapidly increasing electricity demand and vast solar resources. In 2008, the country enacted its National Energy Act, which calls for a diversification of energy sources, including renewables, as well as fuel switching to improve energy efficiency [115].
In 2011, the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (IPP) was set up with rolling bidding rounds. Four rounds have already taken place: in 2011 (630 MW), 2012 (420 MW), 2013 (450 MW), and 2014 (415 MW). The overall target is 3.725 GW and that for solar PV is 1.45 GW. Between the first round (closing date, 4 November 2011) and the fourth round (closing date, 18 August 2014) the average bid price fell from ZAR 2.65/kWh (EUR 0.265/kWh) to ZAR 0.62/kWh (EUR 0.044/kWh). The long awaited fifth round with a renewable capacity of 1.8 GW was finally announced in June 2018 and should be conducted in November 2018.
Developers who had won allocations in the fourth bidding round of REIPP had to wait until April 2018 when the PPAs were finally signed.
As a result of the long delay to sign the PPAs of the fourth round, about 250 MW, less than half of the 2016 PV capacity, was connected in 2017.
Due to the country’s local content rules, more and more manufacturers along the solar value chain are setting up plants in South Africa. A nonexhaustive list of industry activities can be found in the 2017 report [23].
Conclusions
According to investment analysts and industry prognoses, solar energy will continue to grow at high rates in the coming years. The different PV industry associations, as well as Greenpeace, the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) [116], the Energy Watch Group with Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) [117], Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) [21], and the International Energy Agency, have developed scenarios for the future growth of PV systems [118, 119]. Table 1 shows the different scenarios of the Greenpeace/EREC study, the Energy Watch Group/LUT study, BNEF New Energy Outlook (NEO) 2018, and the 2016 and 2018 IEA World Energy Outlook scenarios. It is interesting to note that the predicted PV capacity in the IEA scenarios has significantly increased from 2016 to 2018 but are still at the lower end. Older scenarios can be found in JRC PV Status Reports [120, 121].
With forecasted worldwide new installations between 360 and 410 GW from 2018 to 2020, even the 100% RES Power Sector scenario for 2020 is within reach [122].
These projections show that there are huge opportunities for PV in the future if the right policy measures are taken, but we have to bear in mind that such a development will not happen by itself. It will require the sustained effort and support of all stakeholders to implement the envisaged change to a sustainable energy supply with PV delivering a major part. The main barriers to such developments are perception, regulatory frameworks, and the limitations of the existing electricity transmission and distribution structures.
The solar PV scenarios given above will only be possible if solar cell and module manufacturing are continuously improved and novel design concepts are realized, since the current technology’s demand for certain materials, like silver, would dramatically increase the economic costs of this resource within the next 30 years. Research to avoid such problems is under way and it is expected that such bottlenecks will be avoided.
The PV industry is transforming into a mass-producing industry with its sights on multi-GW production sites. This development is linked to increasing industry consolidation, which presents both a risk and an opportunity at the same time. If the new large solar-cell companies use their cost advantages to offer products with a power output guaranteed for over 30 years, and at reasonable prices, then PV markets will continue their accelerated growth. This development will influence the competitiveness of small- and medium-sized companies as well. To survive the price pressure of the very competitive commodity mass market, and to compensate for the advantages enjoyed by big companies through the economies of scale that come with large production volumes, smaller businesses will have to specialize in niche markets offering products with high value added or special solutions tailor-made for customers. The other possibility is to offer technologically more advanced and cheaper solar-cell concepts.
The global world market, dominated by Europe in the last decade, has rapidly changed into an Asia-dominated market. The internationalization of the production industry is mainly due to the rapidly growing PV manufacturers from China and Taiwan, as well as new market entrants from companies located in India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, UAE, etc. At the moment, it is hard to predict how the market entrance of new players worldwide will influence future developments in the manufacturing industry and markets.
Over the last 10 years, not only have we observed a continuous rise in energy prices, but also a greater volatility. This highlights the vulnerability created by our current dependence on fossil energy sources and increases the burden developing countries are facing in their struggle for future development. On the other hand, we are seeing a continuous fall in production costs for renewable energy technologies and the resulting LCOE, as a result of industry learning curves.
It is important to remember that only about 40% of the LCOE of PV electricity comes from the overnight investment costs. Since external energy costs, subsidies in conventional energies, and price volatility risks are not generally taken into account, renewable energies and PV are still perceived as being less mature in the market than conventional energy sources and have to pay extra risk premiums for their financing. In the mean-time, financing, permits, and administrative costs are much more relevant for the final costs of PV electricity. If access to financing was on the same level, LCOE costs could decrease considerably. Nevertheless, electricity production from PV solar systems has already proved that it can be cheaper than residential consumer prices in a wide range of countries. In addition, in contrast to conventional energy sources, renewable energies are still the only ones to offer the prospect of a reduction rather than an increase in prices in the future.
These projections show that there are huge opportunities for photovoltaics in the future, if the right policy measures are taken, but we have to bear in mind that such a development will not happen by itself. It will require the constant effort and support of all stakeholders to implement the envisaged change to a sustainable energy supply with photovoltaics delivering a major part. The main barriers to such developments are perception, regulatory frameworks, and the limitations of the existing electricity transmission and distribution structures.
Future Directions
The progress of photovoltaics will depend on a parallel development of markets and progress in research. A number of science areas can make a big impact in the future.
Material Science: Fundamental material research and the systematic screening, synthetization, and characterization of potential solar cell materials can play an important role to find and identify new solar cell materials or substitute certain rare materials in the current family of solar cells. In the field of solar photovoltaics, the range of used materials is limited to few elements like silicon (wafer based and thin film), GaAs and its derivatives, CdTe, a few chalcopyrites (CuInGa(SSe)2), and some dye and organic compounds. Already in the first half of the 1950s I-II-VI2 components were researched and the first II-VI-V2 compounds were synthesized. The invention of the CuInSe2/CdS solar cell in the early 1970s at Bell Labs spurred an increased research activity to use compound semiconductors as base material for solar cells. Fundamental theoretical band structure calculations were performed and identified a wide range of compound materials as possible candidates for solar cells in the 1970s. However, the systematic synthetization and investigation and characterization of these potential materials have been not done so far, but offer a chance for new material compositions and or efficiency increases.
Microelectronics : The further large-scale implementation of PV modules and systems will require intelligent modules in order to minimize losses attributed to partial shading or power fluctuations. To realize this smarter control, strategies and alternative power electronics topologies that dynamically optimize the yearly production of these modules have to be developed. There is a need to control (e.g., the conversion factor of DC/DC converters) and monitor (e.g., distributed temperature sensing) various parameters in real time to enable the plant-level controller to optimize the energy yield. Ultimately, he might be able to make trade-offs between lifetime and maximizing power here and now. From a technological point of view, this implies that additional power electronic circuits and sensors need to be placed in and around the module.
Storage Technologies: Future grid-connected PV systems will be subject to more stringent regulatory requirements for the delivery of “ancillary services” to support the electricity grid when reserve and reactive power injection (for voltage support) has to be delivered. As the electricity grid has to deal with positive as well as negative balances, this involves the “shaving” of peak production and temporarily boosting power output. Lowering the output is easily achieved by moving away from the MPP, but when storage is at hand, the energy conversion can be kept at maximum level and the output difference is stored for later recovery.
Such storage functions may be centralized or distributed – a possibly micro-storage for short-term needs could be introduced at the module level in close conjunction to DC/DC converters. These storage components could consist of improved supercapacitors with low leakage and innovative thin-film battery approaches.
To realize such innovative approaches the further development of the respective power components and storage technologies is needed as solar modules increase in temperature during operation which is not favorable for the lifetime of current power electronics and storage technologies.
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Jäger-Waldau, A. (2019). PV Markets and Industry. In: Meyers, R. (eds) Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-2493-6_1072-1
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