This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
References
Anderson RM, May RM. Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. viiOxford: Oxford University Press; 1991. 757 pp.
Anderson RM, May RM, Gupta S. Non-linear phenomena in host – parasite interactions. Parasitology. 1989;99:59–79.
Antao T, Hastings IM. Environmental, pharmacological and genetic influences on the spread of drug-resistant malaria. Proc Biol Sci. 2011;278:1705–12. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.1907.
Aron JL. Mathematical modeling of immunity to malaria. Math Biosci. 1988;90:385–96.
Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Cameron E, Bisanzio D, Mappin B, Dalrymple U, et al. The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015. Nature. 2015;526:207–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15535.
Brady OJ, Slater HC, Pemberton-Ross P, Wenger E, Maude RJ, Ghani AC, et al. Role of mass drug administration in elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria: a consensus modelling study. Lancet Glob Health. 2017;5:e680–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30220-6.
Cairns M, Ghani A, Okell L, Gosling R, Carneiro I, Anto F, et al. Modelling the protective efficacy of alternative delivery schedules for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants and children. PLoS One. 2011;6(4):e18947. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018947.
Chitnis N, Schapira A, Smith T, Steketee R. Comparing the effectiveness of malaria vector-control interventions through a mathematical model. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2010;83:230–40. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0179.
Dietz K, Wernsdorfer WH, McGregor I. Mathematical models for transmission and control of malaria. Malaria Princ Pract Malariol. 1988;2:1091–133.
Dye C, Hasibeder G. Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease: effects of flies which bite some people more frequently than others. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1986;80:69–77.
Eckhoff PA. A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology. Malar J. 2011;10:303. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-10-303.
Eckhoff PA, Wenger EA, Godfray HCJ, Burt A. Impact of mosquito gene drive on malaria elimination in a computational model with explicit spatial and temporal dynamics. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2016;114:E255–64. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1611064114.
Filipe JAN, Riley EM, Drakeley CJ, Sutherland CJ, Ghani AC. Determination of the processes driving the acquisition of immunity to malaria using a mathematical transmission model. PLoS Comput Biol. 2007;3:2569–79. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030255.
Gatton ML, Cheng Q. Modeling the development of acquired clinical immunity to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Infect Immun. 2004;72:6538–45. https://doi.org/10.1128/IAI.72.11.6538.
Gatton ML, Dunn J, Chaudhry A, Ciketic S, Cunningham J, Cheng Q. Implications of parasites lacking Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 on Malaria morbidity and control when rapid diagnostic tests are used for diagnosis. J Infect Dis. 2017;215:1156–66. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jix094.
Griffin JT, Bhatt S, Sinka ME, Gething PW, Lynch M, Patouillard E, et al. Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2016;3099:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00423-5.
Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Reyburn H, Drakeley CJ, Riley EM, Ghani AC. Gradual acquisition of immunity to severe malaria with increasing exposure. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci. 2015;282:20142657. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.2657.
Gupta S, Snow RW, Donnelly CA, Marsh K, Newbold C. Immunity to non-cerebral severe malaria is acquired after one or two infections. Nat Med. 1999;5(3):340.
Gupta S, Swinton J, Anderson RM. Theoretical studies of the effects of heterogeneity in the parasite population on the transmission dynamics of malaria. Proc R Soc London Ser B-Biol Sci. 1994;256:231–8. https://doi.org/10.1086/303379.
Hasibeder G, Dye C. Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease: persistence in a completely heterogeneous environment. Theor Popul Biol. 1988;33:31–53.
Jakubowski A, Stearns SC, Kruk ME, Angeles G, Thirumurthy H. The US President’s Malaria Initiative and under-5 child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: a difference-in-differences analysis. PLoS Med. 2017;14:1–20. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002319.
Johnston GL, Gething PW, Hay SI, Smith DL, Fidock DA. Modeling within-host effects of drugs on Plasmodium falciparum transmission and prospects for malaria elimination. PLoS Comput Biol. 2014;10(1):e1003434. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003434.
Killeen GF, Fillinger U, Knols BGJ. Advantages of larval control for African malaria vectors: low mobility and behavioural responsiveness of immature mosquito stages allow high effective coverage. Malar J. 2002;1:8. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-1-8.
Kwiatkowski D, Nowak M. Periodic and chaotic host-parasite interactions in human malaria. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 1991;88:5111–3. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.88.12.5111.
Mackinnon MJ. Drug resistance models for malaria. Acta Trop. 2005;94:207–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2005.04.006.
Maude RJ, Socheat D, Nguon C, Saroth P, Dara P, Li G, et al. Optimising strategies for Plasmodium falciparum Malaria elimination in Cambodia: primaquine, mass drug administration and Artemisinin resistance. PLoS One. 2012;7(5):e37166. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0037166.
Le Menach A, Takala S, McKenzie FE, Perisse A, Harris A, Flahault A, et al. An elaborated feeding cycle model for reductions in vectorial capacity of night-biting mosquitoes by insecticide-treated nets. Malar J. 2007;6:10. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-6-10.
Nájera JA, González-Silva M, Alonso PL. Some lessons for the future from the global malaria eradication programme (1955–1969). PLoS Med. 2011;8(1):e1000412. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000412.
Nguyen TD, Olliaro P, Dondorp AM, Baird JK, Lam HM, Farrar J, et al. Optimum population-level use of artemisinin combination therapies: a modelling study. Lancet Glob Health. 2015;3:e758–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00162-X.
Okell LC, Griffin JT, Kleinschmidt I, Hollingsworth TD, Churcher TS, White MJ, et al. The potential contribution of mass treatment to the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. PLoS One. 2011;6(5):e20179. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0020179.
Okumu FO, Moore SJ. Combining indoor residual spraying and insecticide-treated nets for malaria control in Africa: a review of possible outcomes and an outline of suggestions for the future. Malar J. 2011;10:208. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-10-208.
Pampana E. A textbook of malaria eradication. 2nd ed. London: Oxford University Press; 1969.
Pemberton-Ross P, Smith TA, Hodel EM, Kay K, Penny MA. Age-shifting in malaria incidence as a result of induced immunological deficit: a simulation study. Malar J. 2015;14:287. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-015-0805-1.
Penny MA, Verity R, Bever CA, Sauboin C, Galactionova K, Flasche S, et al. Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models. Lancet. 2016;387:367–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00725-4.
Recker M, Buckee CO, Serazin A, Kyes S, Pinches R, Christodoulou Z, et al. Antigenic variation in Plasmodium falciparum malaria involves a highly structured switching pattern. PLoS Pathog. 2011;7(3):e1001306. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1001306.
Ross R. Prevention of malaria in Mauritius. London: Waterlow Sons Ltd; 1908.
Slater HC, Ross A, Ouédraogo AL, White LJ, Nguon C, Walker PGT, et al. Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies. Nature. 2015;528(7580):S94–101. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16040.
Slater HC, Walker PGT, Bousema T, Okell LC, Ghani AC. The potential impact of adding ivermectin to a mass treatment intervention to reduce malaria transmission: a modelling study. J Infect Dis. 2014;210:1972–80. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiu351.
Smith DL, Klein EY, McKenzie FE, Laxminarayan R. Prospective strategies to delay the evolution of anti-malarial drug resistance: weighing the uncertainty. Malar J. 2010;9:217.
Smith T, Maire N, Ross A, Penny M, Chitnis N, Schapira A, et al. Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control. Parasitology. 2008;135:1507–16. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0031182008000371.
Snow RW, Marsh K. Will reducing Plasmodium falciparum transmission alter malaria mortality among African children? Parasitol Today. 1995;11(5):188–90.
Stuckey EM, Stevenson J, Galactionova K, Baidjoe AY, Bousema T, Odongo W, et al. Modeling the cost effectiveness of malaria control interventions in the highlands of western Kenya. PLoS One. 2014;9(10):e107700. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107700.
Walker PGT, Floyd J, ter Kuile F, Cairns M. Estimated impact on birth weight of scaling up intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy given sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Africa: a mathematical model. PLoS Med. 2017;14:1–19. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002243.
Walker PGT, Griffin JT, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC, Alonso P, Tanner M, et al. Estimating the most efficient allocation of interventions to achieve reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria burden and transmission in Africa: a modelling study. Lancet Glob Health. 2016;4:e474–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30073-0.
Walker PGT, White MT, Griffin JT, Reynolds A, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. Malaria morbidity and mortality in Ebola-affected countries caused by decreased health-care capacity, and the potential effect of mitigation strategies: a modelling analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015;15:825–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(15)70124-6.
Watson OJ, Slater HC, Verity R, Parr JB, Mwandagalirwa MK, Tshefu A, et al. Modelling the drivers of the spread of Plasmodium falciparum hrp2 gene deletions in sub-Saharan Africa. elife. 2017;6:e25008. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.25008.
White MT, Conteh L, Cibulskis R, Ghani AC. Costs and cost-effectiveness of malaria control interventions – a systematic review. Malar J. 2011;10:337. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-10-337.
White MT, Karl S, Battle KE, Hay SI, Mueller I, Ghani AC. Modelling the contribution of the hypnozoite reservoir to Plasmodium vivax transmission. elife. 2014;3:1–19. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04692.
Winskill P, Walker PG, Griffin JT, Ghani AC. Modelling the cost-effectiveness of introducing the RTS,S malaria vaccine relative to scaling up other malaria interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. BMJ Glob Health. 2017;2:e000090. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2016-000090.
World Health Organization. New or updated WHO guidance, issued in line with MPAC recommendations. 2017. http://www.who.int/malaria/mpac/policyrecommendations/en/. Accessed 7 Oct 2017.
Zhu L, Marshall JM, Qualls WA, Schlein Y, McManus JW, Arheart KL, et al. Modelling optimum use of attractive toxic sugar bait stations for effective malaria vector control in Africa. Malar J. 2015;14:492. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-015-1012-9.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature
About this entry
Cite this entry
Watson, O.J., Routledge, I., Griffin, J.T., Ghani, A.C. (2018). Predictive Malaria Epidemiology, Models of Malaria Control Interventions and Elimination. In: Kremsner, P., Krishna, S. (eds) Encyclopedia of Malaria. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8757-9_146-1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8757-9_146-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4614-8757-9
Online ISBN: 978-1-4614-8757-9
eBook Packages: Springer Reference MedicineReference Module Medicine