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Climate Predictions, Seasonal-to-Decadal

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Abbreviations

Climatology:

Reference period used to describe the characteristics of the climate, such as the mean annual cycle, or the expected statistics of weather or of year-to-year climate variability. The World Meteorological Organization recommends the most recent three full decades; e.g., in 2009, the WMO climatology period would cover 1971– 2000.

External forcing:

Factors that influence the climate system but are not explicitly driven by the climate system, such as human emissions of greenhouse gases, changes in the sun’s radiation, and volcanic emissions.

Forecast:

The guidance offered by a forecaster or forecast center on the future climate conditions. A forecast could be based on a single prediction, but typically is a distilled product that involves recalibrated model predictions and often multiple prediction inputs.

Internal variability:

The chaotic evolution of a fluid, such as the ocean or atmosphere, due to nonlinear dynamics that are sensitive to small uncertainties or variations in initial conditions. Depending on timescale, internal variability may refer to that generated internally to the atmosphere, to the ocean, or due to ocean–atmosphere interaction. It is the part of the seasonal-to-decadal climate that is not deterministically predictable.

Prediction:

The future climate conditions indicated by a single prediction model, which could be statistical or dynamical. These differ from climate change projections in that information of the climate state at or near the initial time of the forecast is highly relevant to its future evolution.

Teleconnections:

Climate variability in one region that is driven remotely by climate variability in another region. This typically refers to regional patterns of climate anomalies over land and/or oceans that result from specific ocean phenomena, such as during El Niño events.

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Books and Reviews

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  1. Forecasting and Prediction Group, International Research Institute for Climate Society (IRI), The Earth Institute of Columbia University, Lamont Campus, 228 Monell Bldg. 61 Route 9W, 10964-8000, Palisades, NY, USA

    Dr. Lisa Goddard

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    Robert A. Meyers

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Goddard, L. (2012). Climate Predictions, Seasonal-to-Decadal. In: Meyers, R.A. (eds) Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-0851-3_368

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