Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Handbook of Sustainable Engineering pp 749–771Cite as

Backcasting and Scenarios for Sustainable Technology Development

  • Reference work entry

Abstract

This chapter explores the relevance of scenarios and backcasting for sustainable technology development and sustainable innovation. It argues that backcasting, due to its normative nature and its focus on desirable futures, is very well equipped to be applied to sustainability, which is a strongly normative concept too. The chapter contains a brief overview of backcasting studies and a methodological framework is presented. The framework is illustrated by a backcasting case on meat alternatives and novel protein foods, which was conducted at the sustainable technology development (STD) program in the Netherlands. A backcasting methodology is presented that can be easily applied by engineers, which is also used in engineering education at Delft University of Technology.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   599.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD   549.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • H. Aiking, J. de Boer, J. Vereijken, Sustainable Protein Production and Consumption: Pigs or Peas? (Springer, Dordrecht, 2006)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • K.L. Anderson, S.L. Mander, A. Bows, S. Shackley, P. Agnolucci, P. Ekins, The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios – Part II: scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK. Energy Policy 36, 3764–3773 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D. Banister, D. Stead, P. Steen, K.H. Dreborg, J. Åkerman, P. Nijkamp, R. Schleicher-Tappeser, European Transport Policy and Sustainable Mobility (Spon Press, London, 2000)

    Google Scholar 

  • A. Carlsson-Kanyama, K.H. Dreborg, H.C. Moll, D. Padovan, Participative backcasting: a tool for involving stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures 40, 34–46 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • H.J. De Graaf, M.A.W. Noordervliet, C.J.M. Musters, G.R. de Snoo, Roadmap for interactive exploration of sustainable development opportunities: the use of simple instruments in the complex setting of bottom-up processes in rural areas. Land Use Policy 26, 295–307 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • K.H. Dreborg, Essence of backcasting. Futures 28, 813–828 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • P.R. Ehrlich, J.P. Holdren, Impact of population growth. Science 171, 1212–1217 (1971)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • B. Elzen, F.W. Geels, K. Green, System Innovation and the Transition to Sustainability (Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton, 2004)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • F. Geels, Technological Transitions and System Innovations: A Co-evolutionary and Socio-technical Analysis (Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton, 2005a)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • F. Geels, Co-evolution of technology and society: the transition in water supply and personal hygiene in the Netherlands (1850–1930) – A case study in multi-level perspective. Technol. Soc. 27, 363–397 (2005b)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • K. Geurs, B. van Wee, Backcasting as a tool to develop a sustainable transport scenario assuming emission reduction of 80–90%. Innovation 13, 47–62 (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  • D. Giurco, B. Cohen, E. Langham, M. Warnken, Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 7097–818 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • K. Gomi, Y. Ochi, Y. Matsuoka, A systematic quantitative backcasting on low-carbon policy in case of Kyoto city. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 852–871 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • K. Green, P. Vergragt, Towards sustainable households: a methodology for developing sustainable technological and social innovations. Futures 34, 381–400 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Grin, J. Rotmans, J. Schot, Transitions to Sustainable Development: New Directions in the Study of Long Term Transformative Change (Routledge, New York/Oxon, 2010)

    Google Scholar 

  • H. Herring, R. Roy, Technological innovation, energy efficient design and the rebound effect, Technovation 27, 194–203 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • M. Höjer, L.-G. Mattsson, Determinism and backcasting in future studies. Futures 32, 613–634 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • M. Höjer, A. Gullberg, R. Pettersson (eds.), Images of the Future City – Time and Space for Sustainable Development (Springer, Dordrecht, 2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Holmberg, Backcasting: a natural step in operationalising sustainable development. Greener Manage. Int. 23, 30–51 (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Holmberg, K.H. Robèrt, Backcasting: a framework for strategic planning. J. Sustain. Dev. World Ecol. 7, 291–308 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • T. Jackson, Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (Earthscan, London, 2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • L. Jansen, The challenge of sustainable development. J. Clean. Prod. 11, 231–245 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • T.B. Johansson, P. Steen, Solar Versus Nuclear: Choosing Energy Futures (Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1980)

    Google Scholar 

  • K. Kok, D.S. Rothman, M. Patel, Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development. Futures 38, 261–284 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  • D. Loorbach Transition Management: A New Mode of Governance for Sustainable Development (International Books, Utrecht, 2007)

    Google Scholar 

  • H.A. Linstone, Decision Making of Technology Executives: Using Multiple Perspectives to Improve Performance (Artech House, Boston/London, 1999)

    Google Scholar 

  • A.B. Lovins, Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace (Friends of the Earth International/Ballinger Publishing Company, Cambridge MA 1977)

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Quist, Backcasting for a Sustainable Future: The Impact After Ten Years (Eburon Publishers, Delft, 2007). ISBN 978–90–5972–175–3

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Quist, P. Vergragt, Past and future of backcasting: the shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework. Futures 38(9), 1027–1045 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Quist, M. Knot, W. Young, K. Green, P. Vergragt, Strategies towards sustainable households using stakeholder workshops and scenarios. Int. J. Sustain. Dev. 4, 75–89 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Quist, C. Rammelt, M. Overschie, G. de Werk, Backcasting for sustainability in engineering education: the case of Delft University of Technology. J. Clean. Prod. 14, 868–876 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Quist, P. Vergragt, W. Thissen, The impact and spin-off of participatory backcasting: from vision to Niche. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 883–897 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Robinson, Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis. Energy Policy 10, 337–344 (1982)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Robinson, Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures 22, 820–843 (1990)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Robinson, Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning. Futures 35, 839–856 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Rotmans, R. Kemp, M. van Asselt, More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy. Foresight 3(1), 15–31 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • F. Schmidt-Bleek, Factor 10: the future of stuff. Sustainability 4, 1–4 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  • M. Van de Kerkhof, M. Hisschemoller, M. Spanjersberg, Shaping diversity in participatory foresight studies: experiences with interactive backcasting on long-term climate policy in the Netherlands. Greener Manage. Int. 37, 85–99 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • P.J. Vergragt, Back-casting for environmental sustainability: from STD and SusHouse towards implementation, in Towards Environmental Innovation Systems, ed. by M. Weber, J. Hemmelskamp (Springer, Heidelberg, 2005), pp. 301–318

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • P.J. Vergragt, L. Jansen, Sustainable technological development: the making of a long-term oriented technology programme. Proj. Apprais. 8, 134–140 (1993)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • P.J. Vergragt, J. Quist, Backcasting for sustainabitlity. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 747–755 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • P. Weaver, L. Jansen, G. Van Grootveld, E. van Spiegel, P. Vergragt, Sustainable Technology Development (Greenleaf Publishers, Sheffield, 2000)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Section Technology Dynamics and Sustainable Development (TDSD), Delft University of Technology, 2600 GA, 5015, Delft, The Netherlands

    Dr. Jaco Quist

Authors
  1. Dr. Jaco Quist
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Alliance for Global Sustainability (retired), Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S), The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Joanne Kauffman

  2. Paris, France

    Joanne Kauffman

  3. Department of Environmental Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon, Korea

    Kun-Mo Lee

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this entry

Cite this entry

Quist, J. (2013). Backcasting and Scenarios for Sustainable Technology Development. In: Kauffman, J., Lee, KM. (eds) Handbook of Sustainable Engineering. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8939-8_52

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation