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Forecasting

  • Arndt Leininger
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Part of the Springer Reference Sozialwissenschaften book series (SRS)

Zusammenfassung

Prognosen stellen in der Politikwissenschaft ein zwar noch kleines, aber stetig wachsendes Forschungsfeld dar, welches in verschiedenen Teilbereichen der Disziplin Anwendung findet. Gemeint sind hiermit statistische Modelle, mit denen explizit politikwissenschaftlich relevante Phänomene vor ihrem Eintreten vorhergesagt werden. Dabei folgen sie den wissenschaftlichen Leitlinien der intersubjektiven Nachvollziehbarkeit und Reproduzierbarkeit. Dieser Beitrag führt ein in die Grundlagen politikwissenschaftlicher Prognosen. Den Schwerpunkt der Darstellung bilden Wahlprognosen, insbesondere strukturelle Modelle, welche beispielhaft anhand eines kanonischen Wahlprognosemodells erläutert werden. Daneben werden synthetische Modelle, Aggregationsmodelle, „Wisdom of the crowd“-Ansätze und Prognosemärkte diskutiert.

Schlüsselwörter

Forecasting Prognosen Quantitative Methoden Wahlprognosen Konfliktforschung 
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Copyright information

© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, ein Teil von Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Otto Suhr Institute of Political ScienceFreie Universität BerlinBerlinDeutschland

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