Abstract
Risk assessment has become increasingly important as a tool in assessing risks from food-borne pathogens. There are many methodologies that may be used when constructing a risk assessment model, and there are many methodological issues, which are left to the risk assessor’s choice. A number of different approaches to developing a risk assessment model are detailed in this chapter, including the use of deterministic and stochastic variables. A step-by-step approach to creating a quantitative risk assessment model is given. The approach is illustrated with a worked example focusing on potential human exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy via meat products. A general framework and guiding principles for constructing a quantitative risk assessment are given, in addition to an outline of the use of Monte Carlo simulation, event tree/fault tree analysis, and sensitivity analysis. This chapter presents a procedure that will enable readers to familiarize themselves with the risk assessment process and equip them with the procedures necessary to construct risk assessment models for food-borne pathogens.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Hathaway, S. C., Pullen, M. M., and McKenzie, A. I. (1988) A model for assessment of organoleptic postmortem inspection procedures for meat and poultry. J. Amer. Vet. Med. Assoc. 192, 960–966.
Cassin, M. H., Lammerding, A. M., Todd, E. C. D., Ross, W., and McColl, R. S. (1998) Quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 41, 21–44.
Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization. (2002) Risk assessments of Salmonella in eggs and broiler chickens—interpretative summary. ISBN 92-5-104873-8.
Rosenquist, H., Nielsen, N. L., Sommer, H. M., Norrung, B., and Christensen, B. B. (2003) Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 83, 87–103.
Stern, N. J., Hiett, K. L., Alfredsson, G. A., et al. (2003) Campylobacter spp. in Icelandic poultry operations and human disease. Epi. and Infect. 130, 23–32.
vanSchothorst, M. (1997) Practical approaches to risk assessment. J. Food Protect. 60, 1439–1443.
NAFTA. (1993) North American Free Trade Agreement, Sanitary and phytosanitary measures, chapter 7, section B.
Cummins, E. J., Grace, P. M., Fry, J. D., McDonnell K. P., and Ward, S. M. (2001) Predictive modelling and risk assessment of BSE: a review. J. Risk Res. 4, 251–274.
Codex Alimentarius Commission. (1999) Principles and guidelines for the conduct of microbiological risk assessment. CAC/GL-30.
Burmaster, D. E. and Anderson, P. D. (1994) Principles of good practice for the use of Monte Carlo techniques in human health and ecological risk assessments. Risk Analysis 14, 477–481.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1997) Guiding principles for Monte Carlo analysis. EPA/630/R-97/001.
Cummins, E. J., Colgan S. F., Grace, P. M., Fry, J. D., McDonnell K. P., and Ward, S. M. (2002) Human risks from the combustion of SRM-derived tallow in Ireland. Human Ecol. Risk Assess. 8, 1177–1192.
Cummins, E. J., Grace, P. M., Fry, J. D., McDonnell, K. P., Colgan, S. F., and Ward, S. M. (2002) Quantitative exposure assessment for the combustion of meat and bone meal derived from specified risk material in the context of BSE in Ireland. J. Agri. Safety Health 8, 365–383.
Stewart, M. G. and Melchers, R. E. (1997) Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Engineering Systems. Chapman & Hall, London.
Kaplan, S. and Garrick, B. J. (1981) On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Analysis 1, 11–27.
Vose, D. (2000) Risk Analysis, A Quantitative Guide. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England.
Brattin, W., Barry, T. M., and Chiu, N. (1996) Monte Carlo modelling with uncertainty probability density functions. Human Ecol. Risk Assess. 2, 820–840.
Office International des Épizooties. (2002) International Animal Health Code 2002. Cited at http://www.oie.int/eng/normes/mcode/A_00067.htm. Last accessed 6/9/02.
European Commission (1999a). The evaluation of tests for the diagnosis of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in bovines, July 8, 1999.
European Commission (2002). The evaluation of five rapid tests for the diagnosis of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in bovines (2nd study). March 27, 2002. Available at http://www.irmm.jrc.be/bse_2.pdf. Accessed 9/23/02.
Helps, C. R., Hindell, P., Hillman, T. J., et al. (2002) Contamination of beef carcasses by spinal cord tissue during splitting. Food Control, 13, 417–423.
European Commission (1999b). Opinion of the Scientific Steering Committee on the human exposure risk (HER) via food with respect to BSE (adopted by the Scientific Steering Committee at its meeting of December 10, 1999). Brussels, Belgium.
European Commission (2000). Preliminary report on quantitative risk assessment on the use of the vertebral column for the production of gelatine and tallow, submitted to the Scientific Steering Committee at its meeting of April 13–14.
Donnelly, C. A. and Ferguson, N. M. (1999). Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD, in Models for Epidemics (Cox, D. R., Isham, V., Keiding, N., Louis, T., Reid, N., and Tong, H., eds.). Chapman and Hall/CRC, Washington, D.C.
Anderson, R. M., Donnelly, C. A., Ferguson, N. M., et al. (1996) Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle. Nature 382, 779–788.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2006 Humana Press Inc.
About this protocol
Cite this protocol
Cummins, E.J. (2006). Approaches to Developing Quantitative Risk Assessment Models. In: Adley, C.C. (eds) Food-Borne Pathogens. Methods in Biotechnology™, vol 21. Humana Press. https://doi.org/10.1385/1-59259-990-7:235
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1385/1-59259-990-7:235
Publisher Name: Humana Press
Print ISBN: 978-1-58829-465-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-59259-990-5
eBook Packages: Springer Protocols