Abstract
The 2018 typhoon season in the western North Pacific (WNP) was highly active, with 26 named tropical cyclones (TCs) from June to November, which exceeded the climatological mean (22) and was the second busiest season over the past twenty years. More TCs formed in the eastern region of the WNP and the northern region of the South China Sea (SCS). More TCs took the northeast quadrant in the WNP, recurving from northwestward to northward and causing heavy damages in mainland China (69.73 billion yuan) in 2018. Multiscale climate variability is conducive to an active season via an enhanced monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high in the WNP. The large-scale backgrounds in 2018 showed a favorable environment for TCs established by a developing central Pacific (CP) El Niño and positive Pacific meridional mode (PMM) episode on interannual timescales. The tropical central Pacific (TCP) SST forcing exhibits primary control on TCs in the WNP and large-scale circulations, which are insensitive to the PMM. During CP El Niño years, anomalous convection associated with the TCP warming leads to significantly increased anomalous cyclonic circulation in the WNP because of a Gill-type Rossby wave response. As a result, the weakened subtropical high and enhanced monsoon trough shift eastward and northward, which favor TC genesis and development. Although such increased TC activity in 2018 might be slightly suppressed by interdecadal climate variability, it was mostly attributed to the favorable interannual background. In addition, high-frequency climate signals, such as intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) and synoptic-scale disturbances (SSDs), interacted with the enhanced monsoon trough and strongly modulated regional TC genesis and development in 2018.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ashok K, Behera S K, Rao S A, Weng H, Yamagata T. 2007. El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res, 112: C11007
Bell G D, Halpert M S, Schnell R C, Higgins R W, Lawrimore J, Kousky V E, Tinker R, Thiaw W, Chelliah M, Artusa A. 2000. Climate assessment for 1999. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 81: s1–s50
Camargo S J, Sobel A H. 2005. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim, 18: 2996–3006
Camargo S J, Emanuel K A, Sobel A H. 2007. Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J Clim, 20: 4819–4834
Chan J C L. 1985. Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest pacific in relation to the El Niño/southern oscillation phenomenon. Mon Weather Rev, 113: 599–606
Chan J C L. 2000. Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña Events. J Clim, 13: 2960–2972
Chang P, Zhang L, Saravanan R, Vimont D J, Chiang J C H, Ji L, Seidel H, Tippett M K. 2007. Pacific meridional mode and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett, 34: L16608
Chen J M, Tan P H, Wu L, Chen H S, Liu J S, Shih C F. 2018. Interannual variability of summer tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Pacific depicted by CFSR and associated large-scale processes and ISO modulations. J Clim, 31: 1771–1787
Chiang J C H, Vimont D J. 2004. Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical atmosphere-ocean variability. J Clim, 17: 4143–4158
Dickinson M, Molinari J. 2002. Mixed rossby-gravity waves and Western Pacific tropical cyclogenesis. Part I: Synoptic evolution. J Atmos Sci, 59: 2183–2196
England M H, McGregor S, Spence P, Meehl G A, Timmermann A, Cai W, Gupta A S, McPhaden M J, Purich A, Santoso A. 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat Clim Change, 4: 222–227
Gall J S, Frank W M. 2010. The role of equatorial rossby waves in tropical cyclogenesis. Part II: Idealized simulations in a monsoon trough environment. Mon Weather Rev, 138: 1383–1398
Gill A E. 1980. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Quart J Roy Meteorol Soc, 106: 447–462
Henley B J, Gergis J, Karoly D J, Power S, Kennedy J, Folland C K. 2015. A tripole index for the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. Clim Dyn, 45: 3077–3090
Hong C C, Lee M Y, Hsu H H, Tseng W L. 2018. Distinct influences of the ENSO-Like and PMM-Like SST anomalies on the mean TC genesis location in the Western North Pacific: The 2015 summer as an extreme example. J Clim, 31: 3049–3059
Hong C C, Li Y H, Li T, Lee M Y. 2011. Impacts of central Pacific and eastern Pacific El Niños on tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett, 38: L16712
Huang B, Thome P W, Banzon V F, BoyerT, ChepurinG, Lawrimore J H, Menne M J, Smith T M, Vose R S, Zhang H M. 2017. NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 5. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K C, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 77: 437–470
Kim H M, Webster P J, Curry J A. 2011. Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by three phases of ENSO. J Clim, 24: 1839–1849
Kim J H, Ho C H, Kim H S, Sui C H, Park S K. 2008. Systematic Variation of summertime tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific in relation to the madden-julian oscillation. J Clim, 21: 1171–1191
Lee H S, Yamashita T, Mishima T. 2012. Multi-decadal variations of ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. Prog Oceanogr, 105: 67–80
Liebmann B, Smith C A. 1996. Description of a complete (interpolated) OLR dataset. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 77: 1275–1277
Liu K S, Chan J C L. 2008. Interdecadal variability of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks. J Clim, 21: 4464–4476
Maloney E D, Hartmann D L. 2000. Modulation of hurricane activity in the gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Science, 287: 2002–2004
Murakami H, Vecchi G A, Delworth T L, Wittenberg A T, Underwood S, Gudgel R, Yang X, Jia L, Zeng F, Paffendorf K, Zhang W. 2017. Dominant role of subtropical Pacific warming in extreme eastern Pacific hurricane seasons: 2015 and the future. J Clim, 30: 243–264
Power S, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V. 1999. Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim Dyn, 15: 319–324
Wang B, Chan J C L. 2002. How strong ENSO events affect Tropical storm activity over the Western North Pacific. J Clim, 15: 1643–1658
Wu L, Takahashi M. 2018. Contributions of tropical waves to tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn, 50: 4635–4649
Wu L, Wen Z, Huang R. 2011. A primary study of the correlation between the net air-sea heat flux and the interannual variation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track and intensity. Acta Oceanol Sin, 30: 27–35
Wu L, Wen Z, Wu R. 2015. Influence of the monsoon trough on westward-propagating tropical waves over the Western North Pacific. Part II: Energetics and numerical experiments. J Clim, 28: 9332–9349
Wu L, Wen Z, Huang R, Wu R. 2012. Possible linkage between the monsoon trough variability and the tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific. Mon Weather Rev, 140: 140–150
Wu L, Wen Z, Li T, Huang R. 2014. ENSO-phase dependent TD and MRG wave activity in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn, 42: 1217–1227
Wu L, Zhang H, Chen J M, Feng T. 2018. Impact of two types of El Niño on tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific: Sensitivity to location and intensity of Pacific Warming. J Clim, 31: 1725–1742
Zhang Q, Wu L, Liu Q. 2009. Tropical cyclone damages in China 1983–2006. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 90: 489–496
Zhang W, Graf H F, Leung Y, Herzog M. 2012. Different El Niño types and tropical cyclone landfall in East Asia. J Clim, 25: 6510–6523
Zhang W, Vecchi G A, Murakami H, Villarini G, Jia L. 2016. The Pacific meridional mode and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific. J Clim, 29: 381–398
Zhang W, Vecchi G A, Villarini G, Murakami H, Gudgel R, Yang X. 2017. Statistical-dynamical seasonal forecast of Western North Pacific and East Asia landfalling tropical cyclones using the GFDL FLOR coupled climate model. J Clim, 30: 2209–2232
Zhao J, Zhan R, Wang Y, Xu H. 2018. Contribution of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation to the recent abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific since 1998. J Clim, 31: 8211–8224
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41875117 & 41775056), and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS (Grant No. 2017106).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wu, L., Zhang, H., Feng, T. et al. Tropical cyclones and multiscale climate variability: The active western North Pacific Typhoon season of 2018. Sci. China Earth Sci. 63, 1–11 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-019-9474-4
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-019-9474-4